Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

It seems that the founder of the defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is looking to run for re-election.  After YP fell apart and lost his Lower House seat in 2014,  渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) joined JRP in 2016 and was elected to the Upper House on the JRP PR slate in 2016.   He fell out with JRP afterward and formed an alliance with PNHK in 2019. 

Now he is looking to run again.  It is clear JRP will not run him.  Possible parties will be DPP, PNHK, or PP.  Out of these 3, PNHK and PP are more likely.  Other DPP PR candidates will view 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) trying to run on the DPP slate as trying to steal their slot and push back.  Both PNHK and PP are on the threshold of winning a PR seat and having the 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) personal vote could push them over the edge.  If 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) runs for PNHK or PP then the party he does run for is the odds-on favorite to win a PR seat in my view.

It seems PNHK has refused to run 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) on the PNHK slate since 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) insists on still being a member of the recreated rump YP versus merging YP into PNHK.  This pretty much means 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will have to run on PP or else he is out in the cold and his political career will come to an end.

He can try running on his own, can't he? He probably won't win but he's got nothing to lose from trying anyway.

I think it is too late for him to get his rump YP on the party-list ballot.  His only hope now is to get on the PP list or some other far-right party list.  It is not clear even if he wants to be on the PP list that PP would have him.  If PP thinks their vote share is around 1%-1.5% then it makes sense to rope him in and convince their PR candidates that they are not going to get elected anyway so might as well let 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) come to be on the PR list and with his personal vote get over the ~1.8% threshold to get elected.  If instead PP thinks their vote share is around 1.5%-2.0% then the PP PR candidates will push back on 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) coming to be on the list since it is likely PP will win seats and all 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will do is to steal their slot.

As for the other far-right parties, it seems unlikely even with 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi)'s personal vote that they can cross the ~1.8% threshold to win a PR seat.  So for 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) the only game left in town is PP.

[jaichind]

Some more JX polls for multi-member districts

4- member 埼玉(Saitama):  LDP KP and CDP ahead in the top tier, pro-DPP independent incumbent, JCP, and JRP fighting for the 4th and last seat, and RS far behind.  What is a surprise here is the JCP is ahead of JRP.



2- member 静岡(Shizuoka): LDP ahead in the top tier, the ex-DP now turned pro-LDP incumbent and pro-DPP incumbent (backed by JRP) fighting for the 2nd seat with JCP far behind. If the ex-DP now turned pro-LDP incumbent wins she will join the LDP.  The CDP vote is critical here and it seems the ex-DP incumbent has some residual pull on the CDP vote despite her going over to a pro-LDP position.



2- member 京都(Kyoto): LDP well ahead, CDP incumbent and JRP (backed by DPP) in the second tier fighting for the 2nd seat with JCP far behind.

[jaichind]

Mainichi PR poll (change from May)

LDP     29 (-4)
KP        6  (+2)
PNHK    2  (+1)
JRP      17 (+4)
DPP       5 (+1)
CDP     10 (--)
RS         5 (+2)
SDP       1 (--)
JCP        7 (+2)

Everyone is gaining at the expense of LDP and CDP.  The massive JRP surge seems to be at the expense of LDP.  PNHK at 2% which is enough to win a seat like 2019.

The same Mainichi poll shows a fall in approval of the Kishida cabinet over inflation.  It is amazing that inflation is finally becoming an election in Japan, the land of deflation and QE.

[jaichind]

https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/96482

It seems the JRP candidate for Toyko is caught in a semi-scandal.  He claims that he lives in Tokyo and that his kids go to school in Tokyo yet he is also currently a member of the Osaka City Council and by Osaka City rules a MLA cannot have permeate residence outside of Osaka City.  I am sure this is some sort of pied-à-terre setup but for him to acknowledge that will drag up more legal questions (just like people that have pied-à-terre in NYC) on exactly where his permeate residence is which has implications on where his kids are allowed to go to school etc etc.

For now, he is just dodging the question by saying everything is nice and legal and his kids do go to school in Tokyo as he said on the campaign stump.

[jaichind]

JX PR poll for 石川(Ishikawa) (with 2021 PR result)

           Poll          2021
LDP    44.1%       44.0%
KP       7.9%         8.7%
PNHK   1.4%         0.5%
PP                        3.0%
JRP      8.4%       14.4%
DPP     2.0%         3.5%
CDP    11.8%      18.4%
RS        3.0%        3.1%
SDP      2.2%        1.9%
JCP       2.5%        4.5%

LDP-KP vote holding up well.  PP and PNHK eating into the JRP vote and even allowing for the undecideds would have a clear lean for CPD and JRP this polls it not a good one for either of them them.

[jaichind]

NHK will do a poll each week until the election.  3 weeks before the election the NHK poll has Kishida's approval falling.

[jaichind]

Japan Press Club as usual hosts first leaders debate


Main campaign message by party are also unveiled.

LDP KP and CDP slogans are really bad.  LDP and KP slogans are really vague with no meaning and CDP is just a laundry list of free stuff.  JRP JCP DPP and RS have much more clear slogans.


LDP (Kishida) "Protect Japan and create the future"



CDP "Control prices, higher pensions, food price reduction, consumption tax reduction"



KP "Japan Forward"



JRP "Reform to grow a sustainable Japan"



JCP "Working toward a life without war"



DPP "Raise salary (aggressive fiscal policy)"



RS "Abolish the consumption tax"



SDP "Live in peace, prioritize living"



PNHK "No NHK fees for pensioners"

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQ6P4JMXQ6PUTIL00P.html

Founder of defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) retires from politics.  He started this current wave of "Third Pole" parties in 2008 by creating YP as a LDP splinter.

[jaichind]

A couple of analysts have LDP at 60 and 59 seats respectively out of 125 up for grabs.  Both have CDP and JRP neck-to-neck on the PR section.

[jaichind]

The rapid fall of the JPY has Japanese TV shocked at how expensive a bagel and coffee are in NYC


Japan these days pretty much has the lowest prices in the developed world.

[jaichind]

My current projection

I also have the alternative winner for competitive and tossups seats

My projection is fairly negative for LDP and JRP with CDP winning most tossups.  My sense is the most recent problem of inflation will most likely work in favor of the CDP and that lower turnout is also likely hit LDP and JRP voters as well.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP CDP (tossup) (LDP)
青森   Aomori             1             CDP (competitive) (LDP)                              
岩手   Iwate               1             CDP (competitive)  (LDP)
宮城   Miyagi              1             CDP (tossup) (LDP)    
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DPP                      
福島   Fukushima       1              OPPN (tossup) (LDP)                    
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP OPPN                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                            
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP OPPN                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP                    
神奈川Kanagawa        5              LDP LDP KP JRP CDP (competitive between JRP and CDP for 4th)          
山梨   Yamanashi       1              CDP (tossup) (LDP)      
東京   Tokyo              6              LDP CDP KP JCP LDP RS (tossup) (JRP)    
新潟   Niigata             1             CDP (tossup) (LDP)            
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP (competitive) (OPPN)                                
長野   Nagano             1             CDP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP ex-DP likely pro-LDP (compeititve) (OPPN)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP CDP KP DPP (compeititive) (JRP)                
三重   Mie                   1             LDP                              
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP  
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (tossup) (JRP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP KP LDP JRP            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             JRP LDP KP
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama        1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori/                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP (comptititve) (OPPN)        
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP OPPN
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima/  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP CDP KP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1            DPP (tossup) (LDP)            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN (competitive) (LDP)  
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10
                                                            
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                18                    33.5%               38                     56
KP                   7                     13.0%                7                     14
PP                   0                       1.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.5%                 0                      0
JRP                  8                    15.0%                4                      12
DPP                  3                      5.5%                3                       6
CDP                  8                    15.5%              15                     23
SDP                 0                       1.5%               0                       0
RS                   2                      4.0%                1                       3
JCP                  4                      7.5%               1                        5
OPPN                                                              5                        5
pro-LDP                                                          1                        1

On the PR slate, it is totally possible that DPP or JCP could lose a seat to SDP or PP.

In 静岡(Shizuoka) it is a DPP-backed OPPN incumbent (via by-election) and also supported by JRP vs an ex-DP and likely pro-LDP incumbent for the second seat.  The ex-DP incumbent claims that she will not join LDP if she wins but most likely that is a ruse to rope in the CDP vote.

[jaichind]

A campaign sign for LDP PR candidates.  On the PR slate, you can vote for LDP or one of the LDP PR candidates.  The higher vote winners are the winners of the seats that accrue to LDP.

[jaichind]

I listened to an Asahi podcast on this just the other day that had the same tone. Japanese people seem to think Tokyo is an expensive city, but I guess that's also a global misconception as most Americans would probably say the same.

This has to do with the fact that JPY surged from around 250 to 125 after the 1985 Plaza Accord and became known in the world for high prices.  So in the Japanese mind JPY at 125 is a "strong Yen."  JPY then bounce around 100 for a couple of decades after the busting of the bubble so in the mind of the Japanese even at 135 it is still the "strong Yen."  What they miss is the differences in rates of inflation in Japan relative to other economies.  JPM computes a CPI-adjusted index of each major currency against the USD.   That index has JPY at less than half the relative value than in 1994. This is the power of decades of annual compounding of differences in CPI between Japan and USA.

[jaichind]

There will be 367 candidates for 75 district seats and 178 candidates for PR seats.



In addition to the 4 minor far right parties active this cycle there is also a new ごぼうの党 (Gobo Party). The list of candidates is filled with YouTubers, artists, singers and sportsmen. They appear to target young disillusioned voters. Smells like a publicity ploy to me though.

Another interesting thing is how there will be an NHK party and PP candidate in every single district. This is bad news for LDP because the far right parties will be able to absorb 3-5% of the LDP vote in critical single member districts.

The ごぼうの党 (Gobo Party) campaign seems to have the slogan "Truth Love Smile"



As for far-right parties, yes PP is running everywhere and PNHK is running multiple candidates in the larger prefectures.  The other far-right parties are also running a bunch of candidates in the larger prefectures.  Not sure what they are up to other than to sink LDP and JRP and in fact each other.

[jaichind]

Campaign signs for 神奈川(Kanagawa).  Signs for the 2 LDP candidates, 2 CDP candidates, KP, JRP, JCP, DPP, SDP, PNHK, and PP.  Pretty much every significant party has a candidate and an ad up.

[jaichind]

Unlike 2016 and 2019 JCP will run in a bunch of 1- member districts.  But it turns out they are running mostly in places where it did not matter anyway. Places, where JCP is running that, could matter but in most cases actually do not matter are

1) 秋田(Akita) - In theory, this seat could be competitive.  But in reality, both CDP and DPP are backing separate independents so even if JCP did not run the LDP incumbent will win anyway.

2) 山形(Yamagata) - The DPP incumbent is very strong here and she is expected to win with or without JCP being in the mix.

3) 福井(Fukui) - The pro-CDP independent has a chance at an upset against the LDP incumbent because of a JRP-backed LDP rebel being in the mix.  The pro-CDP independent chances are weakened by JCP also running but if JCP were not to run the threat of the pro-CDP independent winning might have dissuaded the LDP rebel from running.  So either way, the LDP is likely to win.

4) 滋賀(Shiga) - The CDP-DPP joint independent candidate seems to have a chance at pulling off an upset against the LDP incumbent.   Here JCP running does seem to have an impact and most likely will ensure that the  CDP-DPP joint independent candidate will fall short.  There is a counter-argument is that the CDP-DPP joint independent candidate is doing well because JCP is in the mix allowing them to pick up JRP voters.

5) 岡山(Okayama) - Just like 滋賀(Shiga) The CDP-DPP joint independent candidate seems to have a chance at pulling off an upset against the LDP incumbent in this even longer shot prefecture for the opposition.   Again, here the JCP running most likely will ensure that he will fall short.  Just like in 滋賀(Shiga) there is a counter-argument is that the CDP-DPP joint independent candidate is doing well because JCP is in the mix allowing them to pick up JRP voters.

6) 長崎(Nagasaki) - There is some talk that CDP might pull off an upset against the LDP incumbent due to JRP running here and pulling in some LDP voters.  JCP running here does spoil that but it was always going to be a long shot.

7) 大分(Ōita) - The DPP incumbent is in a tough re-election fight. The JCP running here does not help but I think he is hurt more by a center-left independent than by JCP.  To some extent JCP running here allows the DPP incumbent to go after the JRP and even KP vote.  In the end, the DPP incumbent is at great risk of losing but it is more likely due to the center-left independent than the JCP candidate.

All in all, JCP running in a bunch 1-member districts is not decisive and most likely hurt the center-left opposition in pulling off some long-shot upsets which were never that likely in the first place.

[jaichind]

The mega poll-driven media projections are slowly coming out

Asahi

LDP         60
KP           14
PP             1
PNHK       1
JRP         12
DPP          4
CDP        18
RS           3
SDP         1
JCP          6
Ind.         5 (4 anti-LDP, 1 pro-LDP)

CDP DPP is lower than what I would expect with JCP SDP and PP are higher than what I would expect.  LDP is a bit higher but still within a reasonable range.

[jaichind]

Survey of candidates by the party on the issue of defense.  LDP KP DPP and JRP are for expanding defensive abilities.   31% of CDP candidates support such a position while RS SDP and JCP none do.  But as far as expanding offensive abilities a solid majority of LDP and JRP is for while support falls to 45% of DPP candidates.  Near zero KP candidates are for expanding offensive military abilities which is the same for CDP candidates.


Constitutuinal change.  LDP JRP and DPP for.  CDP JCP RS SDP is against it.  KP is trying to be in the middle.  PNHK mostly for.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri PR poll.  LDP falls a lot although part of it is KP's hidden PR voters that hide out in LDP going back to KP.  CDP and JRP make slight gains.

[jaichind]

Out of the 32 1- member seats Asahi has opposition ahead in only 1 with 6 more as neck-to-neck.

[jaichind]

More detailed Asahi projection.  Note that as the most Left-wing media outfit,  Asahi usually has the most pro-LDP projection while the right-wing media companies tend to have more anti-LDP projections.  It is the anti-house effect.  

They have JCP at 1-3 district seats which is a fairly positive result for them.   PP PNHK and SDP getting a PR seat each are big and something I have to take into account.  JRP and CDP PR numbers do not look that hot for them while RS PR numbers look pretty good.

[jaichind]

https://vote.mainichi.jp/26san/

Is a survey that computes which party aligns best with you

I get

LDP        18
CDP        32
KP          11
JRP         36
JCP         30
DPP        25
RS          34
SDP        34
PNHK      39
HRP        68
PP          57
JFP         36
NPC        43
IPS         39

Among the major parties, I align the most with JRP but not that strongly and only slightly ahead of SDP and RS.   I align the most with the far-right parties like HRP and PP.

I think my higher score with JCP SDP and RS stems from my negative response to Abeconomics of LDP but the survey does not really get into why and assumes my opposition is aligned with Left parties when my position is more than Abeconomics is heterodox and that I am for going to a Thatcherite orthodox economic policy mix.  My low score for LDP clearly reflects my rejection of LDP economic policies as too heterodox and my libertarian positions on social issues which conflicts with LDP and KP positions.

[jaichind]

Kyodo projections which are based on the same raw super-poll data that Asahi used.

Using eyeball-guessing I guess it is

LDP   ~61
KP     ~12 (I call BS, KP will get 14 and everyone knows that)
PP       ~1
PNHK  ~1
JRP    ~13
DPP     ~3
CDP   ~17
RS       ~3
SDP     ~0
JCP      ~5
Ind      ~4

This seems similar to the Asahi projections,  Kyodo is also center-left which should mean that their projection is going to be the most pro-LDP



They also have a chart on how independents plan to vote on the PR slate which looks like a disaster for CDP.  CDP should be dominating this section of the vote base. LDP-KP levels of support here are about right but this vote is being scattered to JRP DPP RS PNHK and most likely PP.

LDP       10.9
KP          1.6
PNHK      1.5
JRP         9.8
DPP        5.6
CDP       11.5
RS          4.7
SDP        1.4
JCP         5.8
Others    4.0 (I have to assume a good part of this is PP)

[jaichind]

A chart that tries to codify Kyodo's and Asahi's descriptions of multi-member districts.

Prefecture            size               Kyodo                                        Asahi
北海道(Hokkaido)    3     LDP LDP CDP (CDP)                   LDP CDP CDP (LDP)
茨城(Ibaraki)          2     LDP OPPN (JCP) (JRP)                         none
埼玉(Saitama)        4     LDP CDP OPPN KP (JRP) (JCP)     LDP CDP OPPN KP (JCP) (tossup)
神奈川(Kanagawa)   5     LDP JRP LDP KP CDP (JCP)         LDP LDP JRP KP JCP (CDP) (CDP)
東京(Tokyo)            6     LDP CDP KP LDP JCP RS (JRP)    LDP LDP CDP RS KP JCP
京都(Kyoto)            2     LDP CDP (JRP)                           LDP CDP (JRP) (not close)
大阪(Osaka)           4      JRP LDP KP JRP (JCP)                 JRP LDP KP JRP (JCP)
兵庫(Hyōgo)           3      LDP JRP KP (CDP) (tossup)         JRP LDP KP (CDP) (JCP)
広島(Hiroshima)      2             none                                 LDP OPPN (JRP) (JCP)
福岡(Fukuoka)        3      LDP CDP KP (JRP) (JCP)             LDP CDP KP (JRP)

These writeups underestimate KP across the board.  It makes it look like KP is at risk of losing in some of these prefectures when in reality they are quite safe and will easily win 7 district seats it is running in.

[jaichind]

PR poll for LDP strongholds of 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) vs 2021 PR results


鳥取(Tottori)         poll          2021
LDP                     34.3         36.5
KP                        8.3          16.5
PNHK                    0.4           1.1
JRP                     10.3           7.9
DPP                      3.2           2.4
CDP                    16.4         23.7
RS                        2.4           3.5
SDP                      2.4           1.6
JCP                       7.5           7.9
Others                  2.8                      (a good part must be PP)


島根(Shimane)      poll           2021
LDP                     34.6          42.5
KP                        9.3           12.7
PNHK                    1.4            1.2
JRP                       7.9            7.4
DPP                      2.8             3.5
CDP                    13.3           22.0
RS                       1.8             2.9
SDP                     2.6             2.1
JCP                      9.6             5.8
Others                 3.1                     (a good part must be PP)

LDP-KP is losing some ground but CDP for sure is losing ground since 2021.  JRP JCP and SDP gaining ground.