NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[jaichind]

When will the entrance polls be released?

One can assume @ noon Pacific Time (3pm Eastern) when the voting starts.

Will they release early voting results at the early voting results at the same time?

[jaichind]

ENTRANCE POLL
Sanders 34.8%
Buttigieg 14.9%
Biden 14.5%
Warren 11.7%
Klobuchar 10.5%
Steyer 8.5%
Gabbard 0.5%

Does this include early polls.  If not then this is bad for Warren

[jaichind]

Biden's lead with Black voters bodes well for SC

[jaichind]

The adjusted CNN exit polls seems to have Sanders dropping a bit to 34 and Biden at 16 ahead of Buttigieg at 14.5

[jaichind]

Is it suppose to be this slow ?

[jaichind]

CNN exit polls now has Biden rising to 17% of the vote while Buttigieg is projected to be at 15.5%

[jaichind]

CNN exit polls now has Biden rising to 17% of the vote while Buttigieg is projected to be at 15.5%

Sanders still at 34?

Yes

[jaichind]

Latest dump in CNN is positive for Biden and Buttigieg at the expense of Sanders

[jaichind]

Latest dump in CNN is positive for Biden and Buttigieg at the expense of Sanders

Hey... Sanders won.  Thought you’d like to know. 

Sure but the scale of victory and how strong 2nd and 3rd place do as well as their identify is also relevent

[jaichind]

CNN exit polls now have Biden winning the Moderate vote over Sanders 25-22

[jaichind]

I am surprised on how resilient Buttigieg is.  I figured he will fall below both Biden and Warren in NV but it seems while he will fall short of beating out Biden for 2nd he is keeping it close.

[jaichind]

So will this make it a Bernie vs Biden race now?

Been positing this for the past week or so, but strongly suspecting this will be case after Super Tuesday, where Bernie will win CA & TX, as well as possibly MN, NC, MA for starters, not to mention potential wins in places like OK.

I actually think it is a battle between Sanders and Biden-Bloomberg where Biden and Bloomberg will be de facto fighting to get the sum of their delegates to be roughly equal to Sanders.  They do this by having both be above 15% in most states.  If they can accomplish that they can get Sanders to fall significantly short of majority of delegates.

[jaichind]

Biden's vote share most likely will fall somewhat over time. Current results on CNN is somewhat Clark County heavy and as that gets normalized the weak Biden levels of support outside of Clark County will drag down his vote share.  He is still likely to be ahead of Buttigieg overall at the end of the day.

[jaichind]

Biden's odds in SC are rising in betting markets.

[jaichind]

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

I am pretty concerned about a Sanders candidacy.  I do not think he is as easy to beat as the Trump/GOP camp think it is.  If it is Sanders I prefer if the GOP shift their resources into the Senate races as insurance in case Sanders does win.

[jaichind]

I do not understand what is the hold up at this point ...

[jaichind]

It seems Warren's and Klobuchar's  support are fairly concentrated while Steyer's support are more diffused.   Warren and Klobuchar lost a lot less than Steyer during realignment even though their first alignment vote shares are similar (especially between  Klobuchar and  Steyer).