NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[dax00]

Mineral County (12/12)
Steyer 16
Buttigieg 15
Sanders 13
Warren 5
Biden 4
Klobuchar 3

STEYERMENTUM!

[atheist4thecause]

Two blatantly obvious points I think

1) The GOP call every Democrat a socialist from Joe Manchin to Ilhan Omar. It is an attack line that is perhaps not as strong as it once was, to put it rather charitably.
2) The GOP essentially spent most of the last decade as a crypto-fascist party and they're doing fine. I would suggest on that basis that a Sanders nomination would not be the end of the world.

Essentially some of you need to get a f!cking grip.

This. Particularly on the scare-word socialism.

This is exactly what Democrats do to Republicans, except about Fascism. How many times has Trump been called a Fascist? And of course they have their bigotry scare words as well.

The difference is that our claims are objectively true. If it walks like a fascist, talks like a fascist, and s**ts like a fascist, chances are it's a fascist.

Perfect example of Democrats using Fascism as a boogeyman through total delusion. Will Dems ever get sick of being hypocrites by complaining about Socialism being a boogeyman and then not standing up to those using Fascism as one?

Yeah it’s not like this administration is running concentration camps at the boarder and the president called neo-Nazis “fine people”.........oh wait

Are you talking about the "camps" Obama created and nobody complained about where nobody called Obama a Fascist? You know, the ones that are used to protect children from being raped and enslaved to help getting illegal immigrant after illegal immigrant family over where they pretend children are theirs when they aren't? You have been indoctrinated with #FakeNews. You probably think they are drinking toilet water, too.

[Gass3268]

Mineral County (12/12)
Steyer 16
Buttigieg 15
Sanders 13
Warren 5
Biden 4
Klobuchar 3

STEYERMENTUM!

Dammit! I'm going to need to get a 7th color for my maps.

[atheist4thecause]

Two blatantly obvious points I think

1) The GOP call every Democrat a socialist from Joe Manchin to Ilhan Omar. It is an attack line that is perhaps not as strong as it once was, to put it rather charitably.
2) The GOP essentially spent most of the last decade as a crypto-fascist party and they're doing fine. I would suggest on that basis that a Sanders nomination would not be the end of the world.

Essentially some of you need to get a f!cking grip.

This. Particularly on the scare-word socialism.

This is exactly what Democrats do to Republicans, except about Fascism. How many times has Trump been called a Fascist? And of course they have their bigotry scare words as well.

The difference is that our claims are objectively true. If it walks like a fascist, talks like a fascist, and s**ts like a fascist, chances are it's a fascist.

Perfect example of Democrats using Fascism as a boogeyman through total delusion. Will Dems ever get sick of being hypocrites by complaining about Socialism being a boogeyman and then not standing up to those using Fascism as one?

Socialism in a social democratic framework is actually a good thing, fascism is a horrific ideology that lead to mass devastation, war and genocide......

Both Socialism and Fascism have led to mass devastation, war, and genocide. What you call Socialism in a Social Democratic framework is actually Capitalism with more regulation and taxes than what the USA traditionally has. Do you think that a Fascist dictator could get impeached? If so, you are delusional.

[atheist4thecause]

There are going to be some false narratives that come out of Nevada. Two prevalent false narratives that I have seen are:
1) Sanders overperformed (He actually got around 34% of the vote so far, which is about where he was polling)
2) Klobuchar underperformed (She actually got around 10% of the vote so far, which is about where she was polling

Caucuses create some really false narratives because I based my numbers off the First Round, which shows actual support, but others will fallaciously use Final Alignment or County Delegates to spin a narrative into what they want it to be.

[jaichind]

It seems Warren's and Klobuchar's  support are fairly concentrated while Steyer's support are more diffused.   Warren and Klobuchar lost a lot less than Steyer during realignment even though their first alignment vote shares are similar (especially between  Klobuchar and  Steyer).

[Zanas]

Lincoln County:

2020:     (47 Total Attendance)

Pete---         19 Votes      (40.4%)                        25 County Delegates
Bernie---      18 Votes      (38.3%)     (-1.6%)        24 County Delegates
Steyer--        7 Votes       (14.9%)                          6 County Delegates
Biden---        1 Vote        (2.1%)                            2 County Delegates
Warren---      1 Vote        (2.1%)                            1 County Delegate

How does having more county delegates than actual people showing up to the actual vote work out in the long run?

[RI]

96% reporting (2018 precincts):

   Round 1   
Sanders   33630   34.0%
Biden   17418   17.6%
Buttigieg   15117   15.3%
Warren   12768   12.9%
Steyer   8928   9.0%
Klobuchar   9454   9.6%
Yang   591   0.6%
Uncom   451   0.5%
Delaney   18   0.0%
Bennet   129   0.1%
Patrick   66   0.1%
Gabbard   333   0.3%

   Round 2   
Sanders   38795   40.4%
Biden   18340   19.1%
Buttigieg   16611   17.3%
Warren   11115   11.6%
Steyer   3830   4.0%
Klobuchar   6952   7.2%
Yang   41   0.0%
Uncom   346   0.4%
Delaney   2   0.0%
Bennet   12   0.0%
Patrick   25   0.0%
Gabbard   39   0.0%

   Delegates   
Sanders   6589   46.8%
Biden   2872   20.4%
Buttigieg   1960   13.9%
Warren   1381   9.8%
Steyer   652   4.6%
Klobuchar   595   4.2%
Yang   5   0.0%
Uncom   5   0.0%
Delaney   5   0.0%
Bennet   2   0.0%
Patrick   1   0.0%
Gabbard   0   0.0%

[Epaminondas]

There are going to be some false narratives that come out of Nevada. Two prevalent false narratives that I have seen are:
1) Sanders overperformed (He actually got around 34% of the vote so far, which is about where he was polling)
2) Klobuchar underperformed (She actually got around 10% of the vote so far, which is about where she was polling

Caucuses create some really false narratives because I based my numbers off the First Round, which shows actual support, but others will fallaciously use Final Alignment or County Delegates to spin a narrative into what they want it to be.

This is incorrect and rooted in an inability to see past the archaic FPTP voting system.

First Alignment votes show just that: first preference. Second and third preferences aren't quite as strong an indicator, but the different with no preference is functionally huge.
You're trying to equate not choosing a candidate on the first round with not wanting them.

I suspect you are aware of how moronic that position is.
"And now for my second wish, genie,..." "Sorry buddy, it's your second wish, so you don't actually want it."

[Bumaye]

Pretty funny that Pete, after declaring himself 2nd place is unviable state wide.

[SInNYC]

Lincoln County:

2020:     (47 Total Attendance)

Pete---         19 Votes      (40.4%)                        25 County Delegates
Bernie---      18 Votes      (38.3%)     (-1.6%)        24 County Delegates
Steyer--        7 Votes       (14.9%)                          6 County Delegates
Biden---        1 Vote        (2.1%)                            2 County Delegates
Warren---      1 Vote        (2.1%)                            1 County Delegate

How does having more county delegates than actual people showing up to the actual vote work out in the long run?

I have been to such a caucus in the past. Assuming NV rules are the same, the local chair strongly encourages every person there to be a delegate, and remaining delegates go unfilled. In this case, that means the precinct gets at most 46 delegates to the next higher level caucus.

But I dont know if they can pick delegates from among early voters in NV, or for that matter if the identity of early voters is even known for them to contact.

[Brittain33]

That giant pic of Truman is AWESOME! Keep quoting it! It’s a nice break from reading boring Nevada Caucus Results.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So was turnout good?

2008 118K (population 2.61 millions)
2016 84K ( 2.92 millions)
2020 ~100K (~3.08 millions + Early voting (+Same Day???))

[Epaminondas]

Turnout was below par, but that just means the hysterical drumbeat of the media turning poor logistics in Iowa into a "disaster for the ages" successfully discouraged a number of older voters from showing up lest they find themselves trapped for hours in a madhouse.

This may also counter-productively have pushed Bernie up a few points.

[2016]

79 Precincts left to count

30 in Clark County
16 in Washoe County
1 Carson City
3 in Douglas County
6 in Lyon County
1 in Nye County
5 in Elko County
1 in Churchill County
3 in Humboldt County
2 in Story County
1 in White Pine

[atheist4thecause]

Turnout was below par, but that just means the hysterical drumbeat of the media turning poor logistics in Iowa into a "disaster for the ages" successfully discouraged a number of older voters from showing up lest they find themselves trapped for hours in a madhouse.

This may also counter-productively have pushed Bernie up a few points.

It's actually a terrible sign for Democrats. At a time when it was easier to vote than ever in Nevada, Democrats couldn't get a state with a high minority population to turn out. That was the exact problem in 2016.

[Xing]

Meh, I can live with my second choice being the nominee.  Also, caucuses are dumb.

Glad to have you on board! With IceSpear and jdb on Team Sanders, we're unstoppable! Anyway, it does seem like Biden is the only one with a realistic chance to beat Sanders, unless Bloomberg's terrible debate performance didn't hurt him as much as expected. And Biden probably isn't winning the black vote by enough to pull ahead of Sanders.

[Badger]

I just want to say I'm so proud of the culinary union workers. Their older, more well-off leadership tried to scare them into not voting for a socialist, and they respectfully crapped on their advice. Especially if they had to caucus in front of their co-workers and bosses, it gives me a lot of hope for our society to see that kind of autonomy and/or non-conformity.

I still dont get how Union management can keep supporting these Dem establishment candidates. The Democrats in the NV legislature couldn't even overturn RTW

Have they even tried?

[RI]

99% reporting (2097/2101 precincts):

   Round 1   
Sanders   35652   34.0%
Biden   18424   17.6%
Buttigieg   16102   15.4%
Warren   13438   12.8%
Steyer   9503   9.1%
Klobuchar   10100   9.6%
Uncom   472   0.5%
Gabbard   353   0.3%
Yang   612   0.6%
Bennet   140   0.1%
Patrick   86   0.1%
Delaney   1   0.0%

   Round 2   
Sanders   41075   40.5%
Biden   19179   18.9%
Buttigieg   17598   17.3%
Warren   11703   11.5%
Steyer   4120   4.1%
Klobuchar   7376   7.3%
Uncom   367   0.4%
Gabbard   32   0.0%
Yang   49   0.0%
Bennet   36   0.0%
Patrick   8   0.0%
Delaney   0   0.0%

   Delegates   
Sanders   6788   46.8%
Biden   2927   20.2%
Buttigieg   2073   14.3%
Warren   1406   9.7%
Steyer   682   4.7%
Klobuchar   603   4.2%
Uncom   7   0.0%
Gabbard   4   0.0%
Yang   1   0.0%
Bennet   0   0.0%
Patrick   0   0.0%
Delaney   0   0.0%

[Tender Branson]

99% reporting (2097/2101 precincts):

 Round 1
Sanders 35652 34.0%
Biden 18424 17.6%
Buttigieg 16102 15.4%
Warren 13438 12.8%
Steyer 9503 9.1%
Klobuchar 10100 9.6%
Uncom 472 0.5%
Gabbard 353 0.3%
Yang 612 0.6%
Bennet 140 0.1%
Patrick 86 0.1%
Delaney 1 0.0%

 Round 2
Sanders 41075 40.5%
Biden 19179 18.9%
Buttigieg 17598 17.3%
Warren 11703 11.5%
Steyer 4120 4.1%
Klobuchar 7376 7.3%
Uncom 367 0.4%
Gabbard 32 0.0%
Yang 49 0.0%
Bennet 36 0.0%
Patrick 8 0.0%
Delaney 0 0.0%

 Delegates
Sanders 6788 46.8%
Biden 2927 20.2%
Buttigieg 2073 14.3%
Warren 1406 9.7%
Steyer 682 4.7%
Klobuchar 603 4.2%
Uncom 7 0.0%
Gabbard 4 0.0%
Yang 1 0.0%
Bennet 0 0.0%
Patrick 0 0.0%
Delaney 0 0.0%

There are just 2097 precincts, so 100% is counted.

[RI]

There are just 2097 precincts, so 100% is counted.

Ok, NYT's precinct map said 2101 total precincts.

[Tender Branson]

There are just 2097 precincts, so 100% is counted.

Ok, NYT's precinct map said 2101 total precincts.

That must be wrong.

Every other site says 2097 in total, of which 2097 are now counted.

[Dr. Arch]

Final turnout was 105K, not bad IMO, especially when compared to turnout in 2016.

[El Betico]

So, final turnout is around 105k,  21k up respect to 2016.

[Xing]

So I'm guessing this confirms that the delegate split is:

Sanders - 24
Biden - 9
Buttigieg - 3