NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[here2view]

Looks like Bernie will win the nomination. I hope they don't screw him out of it at a contested convention if he has a plurality.

I donated to Biden and will vote for him on March 3rd, but Bernie has my full support in the general election. I'll donate to him as well.

[SN2903]

I don't know if Biden can win SC after yesterday.

Why? He's in 2nd right now. That's a good showing for him. He had given up on the state and when he realized his numbers were as good as they were he made a late push that worked. I don't know what else you expected. Staying in the top keeps a candidate relevant.

Because although he got 2nd he lost by a lot. You could be right but I am concerned the democrats are being taken over by a socialist/communist. I will continue to express my concerns about one of the major parties being taken over by someone so extreme. I don't care who doesn't like it. It's my opinion and I am entitled to it. The fact is that Bernie Sanders is NOT a democrat. His ideas are outside of the mainstream of American political thought. Promising a free living to Americans is not realistic.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

[jaichind]

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

I am pretty concerned about a Sanders candidacy.  I do not think he is as easy to beat as the Trump/GOP camp think it is.  If it is Sanders I prefer if the GOP shift their resources into the Senate races as insurance in case Sanders does win.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

I am pretty concerned about a Sanders candidacy.  I do not think he is as easy to beat as the Trump/GOP camp think it is.  If it is Sanders I prefer if the GOP shift their resources into the Senate races as insurance in case Sanders does win.

Sanders will have a horrible down ballot effect though.

[ElectionsGuy]

Everybody trying to construct a Biden comeback narrative after last night is desperate. He lost to Bernie by 16 points.

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

You would think opposition research would be known by now considering this is the 2nd time he's run for president.

[Florida Man for Crime]

At this point - and more so with each passing day - it becomes clearer and clearer that MacArthur is doing exactly the same thing that he and his ilk accused Sanders supporters of doing in 2016 - of not rallying behind the nominee with sufficient rapidity, alacrity, and enthusiasm, as it becomes increasingly clear that the nominee is the nominee.

So by MacArthur's own standards, if Bernie goes on to lose now, MacArthur and his ilk should and will and shall be to blame for the loss. MacArthur is undermining - and if he continues on in this decrepit state, will continue to undermine - the nominee's chances of beating Trump in November. And other stragglers and remnants of a bygone era like James Carville and Chris Matthews are aiding and abetting in this enterprise, sabotaging party unity, and doing their damndest to secure a GOP victory in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1231594160232136705

[Xing]

Two things are pretty clear after last night:

1) The idea that Sanders has a more diverse coalition this time around definitely seems true.

2) The idea that all voters not supporting Sanders would get behind any other candidate to stop him really doesn’t look to be true. Sanders actually looks to have benefitted from reallocation this time around.

Anyway, unless Biden wins the Southern states by a Clinton-like margin, it’s hard to see Sanders losing, given how well these results bode for CA and TX. Also, LOL at all of the “Sanders is a bad fit for NV/would make NV Tilt R” takes. Sanders is building a winning coalition. It just looks different from 2016. And if the best Trump can do is scream SoCiAlIsM a few hundred times, I feel pretty good about Sanders’s chances.

[Mike88]

Why is everything so slow, again?

[Hydera]

I made a weird quadrant shape. Because many areas yet to be reported in Reno are there. Lots of lower income white and lower income hispanic areas are yet to be reported.  Bad news for Buttigieg and Biden regarding those well to do white suburbs. They are either mostly reported and since most of them are registered republican there isnt enough votes left to help Buttigieg.





As for the Vegas area, Biden and Buttigieg are doing well in the white suburbs to the west of the vegas metro area. However lots of places yet to be reported are lower income white areas and hispanic areas. Not good for the both of them.

[Smash255]

Interesting caveat.  In Iowa Buttigieg benefited with the delegate math from the calculation of final Alignment to SDE's,, and Sanders was hurt a bit by it.  In Nevada the reverse is true with Sanders over performing with county delegates to the final alignment vote and Buttigieg under performing (other candidates are impacted as well, but doesn't matter as much for those under the 15% threshold.

[2016]

I don't know if Biden can win SC after yesterday.

Why? He's in 2nd right now. That's a good showing for him. He had given up on the state and when he realized his numbers were as good as they were he made a late push that worked. I don't know what else you expected. Staying in the top keeps a candidate relevant.

Biden Campaign predicted a strong 2nd Place. This is anything but strong. And he might even lose the Final Alignment Popular Vote to Buttigieg where is with 60 % only up 300 Votes or so while keeping his State Delegate lead over Mayor Pete. He's losing to Sanders by 25 Percentage Points.

[2016]

Republicans probably have a lot of dirt on Bernie. They are just saving it until he gets the nomination. Trump has been mostly silent about Bernie, as opposed to making jokes about everyone elese.

Democrats particularly the Networks ABC, NBC and CNN were POPPING up Trump big time in 2016 which I didn't like at all and as soon as he got the Nomination they clobbered him.

[Minnesota Mike]

Turnout is awful. Will be lucky to hit 100K. Well below 2008 even with the addition of early voting and high population growth since 2008.  Less than 20% of registered Democrats will participate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Turnout is awful. Will be lucky to hit 100K. Well below 2008 even with the addition of early voting and high population growth since 2008.  Less than 20% of registered Democrats will participate.

Jon Ralston tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231414127265927170

[Hydera]

Was looking around some buttigieg precincts and one of them i couldn't use street view and it turns out it was a gated community.

[Tender Branson]

Are they taking a siesta in NV or something ?

Count the damn votes !

[Minnesota Mike]

Turnout is awful. Will be lucky to hit 100K. Well below 2008 even with the addition of early voting and high population growth since 2008.  Less than 20% of registered Democrats will participate.

Jon Ralston tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231414127265927170

57,619 first alignment votes with 60% in.  Had a 118K in 2008 when there was only about 75% of the registered Democrats there are today.

[dax00]

Well, there was this.
https://twitter.com/merica/status/1231602254219792384?s=20

[GeneralMacArthur]

Nobody complained about irregularities in New Hampshire, and we had all the results within like 2 hours.

Ban.  Caucuses.

[soundchaser]

57,619 first alignment votes with 60% in.  Had a 118K in 2008 when there was only about 75% of the registered Democrats there are today.

60% of *precincts reporting.* Not 60% of the vote.

[ElectionsGuy]

Turnout is awful. Will be lucky to hit 100K. Well below 2008 even with the addition of early voting and high population growth since 2008.  Less than 20% of registered Democrats will participate.

Jon Ralston tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1231414127265927170

57,619 first alignment votes with 60% in.  Had a 118K in 2008 when there was only about 75% of the registered Democrats there are today.

Turnout would have to be about 157K to match proportionately to 2008. That is not good.

[atheist4thecause]

Two blatantly obvious points I think

1) The GOP call every Democrat a socialist from Joe Manchin to Ilhan Omar. It is an attack line that is perhaps not as strong as it once was, to put it rather charitably.
2) The GOP essentially spent most of the last decade as a crypto-fascist party and they're doing fine. I would suggest on that basis that a Sanders nomination would not be the end of the world.

Essentially some of you need to get a f!cking grip.

This. Particularly on the scare-word socialism.

This is exactly what Democrats do to Republicans, except about Fascism. How many times has Trump been called a Fascist? And of course they have their bigotry scare words as well.

[GP270watch]

Every caucus is stupid. The Democratic Party needs to get rid of these as soon as possible.