2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[DINGO Joe]

Will Biden crack 60% in New York when absentees are counted?

Yeah, just like other states, the absentee will be heavily heavily D

[DINGO Joe]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

I'd guess 70 to 75 thousand.  I don't think that outside of remade ballots, there are anything other than provisionals out there.

[DINGO Joe]

Is Biden still on track for a 100K win in PA?

I'd guess 70 to 75 thousand.  I don't think that outside of remade ballots, there are anything other than provisionals out there.

As of noon today, there were still 51k mail-ins to count in PA. And those don't count provisionals. Not sure if they even include overseas/military

https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx

I'm skeptical of the real time accuracy of that.  It's been in that range for two or three days now.  And about 20k of provisionals have been counted-- though mostly in R areas. 

[DINGO Joe]

51 of 72 Wisconsin counties have completed their canvasses. Biden gained 10 votes and Trump lost 271.

Dumb question, but how does someone lose 271 votes in a canvas?

Human error

[DINGO Joe]

More vote out of Allegheny, Biden's lead 54K now statewide.

Joe Biden 3,390,729
Donald Trump 3,336,751

About ~8K provisionals out of Allegheny broke 55-45 for Biden. ~4K provisionals from Delaware Co broke 63-36.

That's quite high for Trump, isn't it?

It may have been from the less D part of the county.  They still have another batch to process plus disputed ones.  Outside of the Philly area though, there won't be a treasure trove of D votes.

[DINGO Joe]

Another large Republican county in MS, Lamar, has certified results.

About 5.000 votes have been added there since election night to the 23.500

It matches DeSoto for the biggest swing in MS towards Biden thus far at 8pts.  It matches the overall trend of growing counties in the South swinging towards Biden while declining counties flat to swinging slightly towards Trump.

On edit, i was wrong Desoto actually swung 10 pts to Biden.

[DINGO Joe]

Virginia gets certified today but some jurisdictions are still not >99% like Fairfax county, Arlington, Alexandria, Norfolk city are in 90%. Does anyone know why counting is slow? Where are the updated figures?

Anecdotal but when I voted early in Fairfax county there were a lot of voters who requested absentee ballots, didn't bring their ballot and tried to vote early.  Given that most people here voted early there were probably a lot of these issues.  Not sure if they got some kind of provisional and that's what's being sorted out.  But given that we don't have much experience with early voting it's probably taking them a long time. 

Anyways, if that's the case I'd expect Biden's win margin to go up higher in places like Fairfax County where it was 50/50 in Election Day voting but more like 80/20 for Biden in early voting.  Currently Biden is at 70.4%.

Naw, some of those % numbers are old and never were that accurate anyway.  Really it's just Richmond's provitionals  and a smattering of small adjustments to be made

[DINGO Joe]

Speaking only for myself, I think Trump's campaign is entitled to recounts where permitted by state laws and do think it's fine to let the recount process play out. However, I'm starting to actually get angry about the post-election Trump show. This is clearly not about the integrity of our elections, it's about tossing out any ballots that are likely votes for Biden.

Coincidentally, I'm going to be out of town in January and actually am voting by mail for the runoffs. If Perdue and Loeffler don't come to their senses and disavow this show soon, they can count on two votes for their opponents in the GA runoff when my ballot arrives.

Didn't they already call for Raffensberger to resign?  I mean isn't that already past the pale? 

[DINGO Joe]

Speaking only for myself, I think Trump's campaign is entitled to recounts where permitted by state laws and do think it's fine to let the recount process play out. However, I'm starting to actually get angry about the post-election Trump show. This is clearly not about the integrity of our elections, it's about tossing out any ballots that are likely votes for Biden.

Coincidentally, I'm going to be out of town in January and actually am voting by mail for the runoffs. If Perdue and Loeffler don't come to their senses and disavow this show soon, they can count on two votes for their opponents in the GA runoff when my ballot arrives.

Didn't they already call for Raffensberger to resign?  I mean isn't that already past the pale? 

That was also pretty shocking. The Perdue / Loeffler attack on him offended a lot of people in this area - even some Trump voters I know were shocked. Raffensberger actually was a pretty low-key, popuar city councilman in Johns Creek in North Fulton not too far from where I live and he's pretty traditionally conservative.

Well, not be rude, but i don't understand why you still give them an "out" at this point.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1330353938290401282

The Democratic transition into becoming the party of the wealthy is truly astonishing and depressing.

Stop it. The Democratic Party isn't the "party of the wealthy" because of this election.

I find it interesting that as soon as I say something that goes against the narrative here, people jump down my throat again. Why should I be surprised at this?

There is a pretty strong correlation this election of counties gaining population swinging towards Biden and those losing population swinging towards Trump.  Now historically, counties that are struggling tend to swing against the incumbent party while those doing well swing towards it.  It shows just how dominant education and cultural issues are right now that the pattern has been disrupted.  Wealthy tend to live in culturally diverse and vibrant areas and appreciate that especially compared to the fascist Republicanism

[DINGO Joe]

[float=left][/float]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1330353938290401282

The Democratic transition into becoming the party of the wealthy is truly astonishing and depressing.

Stop it. The Democratic Party isn't the "party of the wealthy" because of this election.

I find it interesting that as soon as I say something that goes against the narrative here, people jump down my throat again. Why should I be surprised at this?

There is a pretty strong correlation this election of counties gaining population swinging towards Biden and those losing population swinging towards Trump.  Now historically, counties that are struggling tend to swing against the incumbent party while those doing well swing towards it.  It shows just how dominant education and cultural issues are right now that the pattern has been disrupted. Wealthy tend to live in culturally diverse and vibrant areas and appreciate that especially compared to the fascist Republicanism.

This actually alludes to something which was brought to my attention recently. This article highlights how bankers-both executives and employees-overwhelmingly favored Biden, with their financial contributions and endorsements, over Trump. Republican policies have been much more favorable to the banks, and they benefited in particular from the 2017 Trump tax cuts. However, banks feel themselves to be more in alignment with Democratic "values", on issues such as climate change, income inequality, immigration, and foreign investment, among other things, and are hence more supportive of Democrats. In a way, banks are acting against their own interests, as expressed in the form of the bottom line.

Unfortunately there is a segment of these voters still willing to vote R down ballot even though those Rs  have shown a totally lack of spine and constant appeasement and pandering towards the Trump fascists.  I mean you see it here.

[DINGO Joe]

I’m so confused right now.

I mean it's pretty simple--it's a moronic sh**tshow

[DINGO Joe]

LOL Powell was too crazy for Trump and Rudy. She probably thought that they wanted her to say the most bats--t stuff possible, but maybe the Loeffler stuff was too far.

I don't know who originated this, but I've seen them referred to on Twitter as "The Gang That Couldn't Sue Straight".

I'll go with "Dumb and Dumber and Dumber and Dumber....."

[DINGO Joe]

Side note: Trump is very lucky he's never been a Michigan resident, because Nessel would TOTALLY indict him for tax fraud or any other shady thing he did once he's a private citizen. Has Trump ever owned any properties in Michigan? If so I bet she'll be probing those finances anyway...

Like there isn't an army of DAs and AGs lining up to go after Trump the second he's out anyway.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1330975156014112768

This is ridiculous.  Trump looked bad before "Dumb and Dumber" went to work. 

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1330975156014112768

This is ridiculous.  Trump looked bad before "Dumb and Dumber" went to work. 

Ah, but now he has someone else he can put the blame on instead of accepting responsibility for his own failures.

Trump never has and never will accept responsibility for his failures.

[DINGO Joe]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

They got tired of obscure people being faithless electors

[DINGO Joe]

I guess Greenlee is obviously wrong data on the AZ official election division website too?

Greenlee   100.00%   
Biden 7,092
 Trump 14,598
Total vote 22,110

Considering that Greenlee has 4800 registered voters that's a little off.  I guess Rudy drove by with a van of votes.

[DINGO Joe]

So in all seriousness....does anybody actually know why New York counts votes slower than Trump walks down the West Point ramp?

Well, by law, they can't even start till like a week or ten days after election day.  And then, unlike many places, they don't provide updates of partial counts, they don't report until everything is done.

[DINGO Joe]

This should have been split up at 160 but if the site is still running with it, I’ll leave it up.

With that said, all good (or depending on your point of view, bad) things come to an end. I’ll lock somewhat soon.

Uh, New York

[DINGO Joe]

Looks like Ohio has had the lowest increase in vote so far.

[DINGO Joe]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

[DINGO Joe]

It's so annoying New York is still at 85% counted. Will Joe Biden crack 60% here? It would be great to increase his national popular vote as well. On Wikipedia, he's at 51.0%. Just >0.1% more and he will surpass Obama 2012.

Yes and yes.  NYC will drop all at once and will be obscenely lopsided.

When will they drop more votes?  Kinda lame it's taking this long.

Once all 5 boroughs are done.  Unlike most places, they just refuse to do interim updates.  When they are ready to certify they report.

[DINGO Joe]

Westchester and Suffolk plus some other upstate counties are still out there.  Maybe some odds and ends for Illinois and possible Maryland, but yeah 90% of what's left will be NY

[DINGO Joe]

Despite most other counties in California being mostly done counting, Lake County is only at 40% and has been since election night. Does anyone know what's going on there?

Lake, not unlike NYC, has an established history of not providing vote updates until they are done and and post their final numbers, it's pretty rate in California to do this, but Lake does it.