IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[SnowLabrador]

I think this is probably seat 52 or 53. But I'm encouraged by the fact that McConnell thinks they need to spend here, because they have access to more polling than we do.

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

Yeah My maths was a bit out I shouldn't post when it's late lmao

TX could have been way ahead of IA but with the useless candidates it looks like that ones more or less entirely off the board to me

Although I still don’t buy that Cornyn (who’s hilariously overrated by Democrats and Republicans alike) is going to considerably outrun Trump (or Cruz). He’s really lucky that Democrats are prioritizing IA over TX, and I won’t be surprised if he has a "shockingly" close call on election night.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

Yeah My maths was a bit out I shouldn't post when it's late lmao

TX could have been way ahead of IA but with the useless candidates it looks like that ones more or less entirely off the board to me

Although I still don’t buy that Cornyn (who’s hilariously overrated by Democrats and Republicans alike) is going to considerably outrun Trump (or Cruz). He’s really lucky that Democrats are prioritizing IA over TX, and I won’t be surprised if he has a "shockingly" close call on election night.

I will say just on a purely personal note, my dad and I actually dislike Cornyn even more than Cruz.

Anyways, in regards to this thread topic, nah, also Theresa Crapfield is lame, support Mike Franken instead.

[Brittain33]

Joni Ernst won her first race by 8 points in an exceptionally good year for her party.

Do you know who else won her first Senate race by 8 points in an exceptionally good year for her party? Kay Hagen. And she defeated an incumbent, not a challenger to an open seat.

People who've been saying this is Safe R have a lack of imagination.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

Yeah My maths was a bit out I shouldn't post when it's late lmao

TX could have been way ahead of IA but with the useless candidates it looks like that ones more or less entirely off the board to me

Although I still don’t buy that Cornyn (who’s hilariously overrated by Democrats and Republicans alike) is going to considerably outrun Trump (or Cruz). He’s really lucky that Democrats are prioritizing IA over TX, and I won’t be surprised if he has a "shockingly" close call on election night.

Last poll had both White and Hegarvlosing by double digits,  
https://www.reddit.com/r/VoteDEM/comments/gce8t1/txsen_uttyler_poll_hegar_leads_west_3216_in/?utm_source=ifttt

37 to 24 Cornyn over White and Hegar
Harrison has a better chance than White whom was down 47 to 43

[MT Treasurer]

NC and IA aren’t comparable states. Like, at all.

[S019]

It isn't Safe, but it's dumb that money is going here instead of GA or TX, which are more competitive races. Also Ernst probably outruns Trump, the only way she loses is if the national environment remains toxic for Republicans, and at that point, TX is a far better target.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a narrow win for Biden, he will win AZ, CO, ME and NC, but in order to get things through a partisan Senate KS, IA and MT are feesible

[Xing]

This seat is pretty much wave insurance (I’d call it seat 54 for Democrats, since I don’t think Kobach will win the primary), but IA isn’t the most expensive state to spend in, and Democrats have three competitive seats to defend here in the House, so I don’t think a bit of money is such a bad idea here. It shouldn’t be instead of spending in GA and other more competitive races, though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will campaign in IA and King can still lose as well

[Pollster]

Can we merge with the megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It isn't Safe, but it's dumb that money is going here instead of GA or TX, which are more competitive races. Also Ernst probably outruns Trump, the only way she loses is if the national environment remains toxic for Republicans, and at that point, TX is a far better target.

Agreed on GA, but money goes much further here than in TX, which probably isn't that much more competitive than IA (in part because IA still has a stronger field of Democratic primary candidates).

[Figueira]

>Reddit/VoteDEM
>Chris Murphy
>"the Senate may come down this seat" (lol)
>"donate to Theresa tonight"

Okay.

If Ernst is in serious danger of losing, the Senate majority is already gone for the GOP. Republicans shouldn’t take this seat for granted, but McConnell should be much more worried about potential tipping-point races (NC, MT, GA, KS, etc.) than he should be about losing IA.

Come on, you're better than this. The Senate isn't about binary winning vs. losing. Ernst could be the difference between a Democratic Senate majority that relies on Manchin or Sinema and one that doesn't. And even more importantly, it could make or break the 2022 and 2024 elections in terms of Senate control.

[Brittain33]

NC and IA aren’t comparable states. Like, at all.

True, Iowa has been swingier than NC in recent years.

Iowa isn’t Nebraska or South Dakota, either.

[Lechasseur]

It isn't Safe, but it's dumb that money is going here instead of GA or TX, which are more competitive races. Also Ernst probably outruns Trump, the only way she loses is if the national environment remains toxic for Republicans, and at that point, TX is a far better target.

Agreed on GA, but money goes much further here than in TX, which probably isn't that much more competitive than IA (in part because IA still has a stronger field of Democratic primary candidates).

Yeah candidate quality still matters.

Now if Cornyn was up against a strong Democratic nominee things would be different, but if Cornyn is in serious danger of losing it means that the GOP is being destroyed nationwide.

The Democratic field in Iowa as you said is much stronger and Ernst, although currently favored to win, isn't an unbeatable titan either.

That being said, if Ernst is losing it means the Democrats have already taken back the Senate, but in this day and age, both parties could use having as many senators as possible.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I actually think this could be anywhere between seat 51 and seat 53 for Dems, depending on uncertainties in Kansas and Montana.

[SnowLabrador]

I actually think this could be anywhere between seat 51 and seat 53 for Dems, depending on uncertainties in Kansas and Montana.

Yeah. I'm feeling better about our chances here, given that the latest poll only has Greenfield down by 1 point, and that both parties are spending lots of money in Iowa. The people making those decisions presumably have access to a lot more polling than we do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is done, Reynolds only won by 3.5 points in 2018, not by 10 points and IA only voted 2 × in 2004 and 2016 R for Prez. This is Tom Harkins seat which he vacated in an R yr in 2014, that's why Ernst won

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mike Franken is a Surgeon General and JD Scholten can win against King

[Lechasseur]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

McGath, Franken, and Kelly all have Military experience; likewise, Bollier and Gross are doctors, that's why they can win. Trump is the Sarah Palin, whom endorsed him in 2016, of the R party.

Biden has 40 yrs of politics and Hilary has 12 yrs and was a first lady and we never had a female Prez. That's why Dems will win

[LabourJersey]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

I think part of this also boils down to the DSCC's focus on promoting female candidates. I think that's a reasonable idea but something that leads to weaker candidates. Sometimes I wonder how John Fetterman would have done in 2016 against Toomey, as opposed to Katie McGinty.

Also I think Greenfield is a fine candidate, but Franken has a lot of upside in his background. I also think the pandemic is probably going to draw voters to more "leadership" types, so I think candidates like Franken, Scott Kelly etc and incumbents like Sherill in NJ and Luria in VA are poised to take advantage of that sentiment

[Farmlands]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

Yeah my feeling is Franken would probably be the stronger candidate in the GE.

With his profile and appearance, I don't doubt it. Greenfield strikes me as a weak nominee overall.

[Not Me, Us]

On May 5, Cal Woods dropped out of the Democratic primary and endorsed Michael Franken. Yesterday, the Des Moines Register did the same.

I know Greenfield has had better fundraising, yet can't help but wonder (when considering the potential for lots of small donations in addition to high-dollar fundraisers) how much of that is down to the early DSCC endorsement/promotion.

I think part of this also boils down to the DSCC's focus on promoting female candidates. I think that's a reasonable idea but something that leads to weaker candidates. Sometimes I wonder how John Fetterman would have done in 2016 against Toomey, as opposed to Katie McGinty.

Also I think Greenfield is a fine candidate, but Franken has a lot of upside in his background. I also think the pandemic is probably going to draw voters to more "leadership" types, so I think candidates like Franken, Scott Kelly etc and incumbents like Sherill in NJ and Luria in VA are poised to take advantage of that sentiment

Fetterman would have won pretty easily. Hopefully he'll be the nominee in '22.