Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[DC Al Fine]

I superficially mapped all the parties by Left Center and Right and looked at the 2014 balance of both houses after the 2014 elections vs after the 2018 elections

House      2014   2018
Left          169     162
Center      103       69
Right        241     282

Senate    2014    2018
Left           31       25
Center       21       18
Right         29       38

What's your breakdown of the parties?

[President Johnson]

Apparently Alvaro Dias isn't going to endorse anyone, but I'd expect his voters to vote for Bolsonaro in the runoff of simply vote null/blank. It seems that Meirelles won't endorse anyone but just like Dias' voters, his voters will likely vote for Bolsonaro. Alckmin and other PSDB leaders will meet tomorrow to discuss who to endorse. Marina said she will be in the opposition regardless of who becomes president. Ciro is, obviously, going to support Haddad.

Some of Temer's allies who were defeated yesterday like Medonça Filho and Bruno Araujo are endorsing Bolsonaro.

Has Temer himself endorsed anyone? Probably it doesn't matter because he's polling pretty badly.

[Zuza]

Interesting to see how Alckmin loses miserably but his coalition still gets several times more seats than that of any other candidate.

[EPG]

It seems like the great Bolivarian experiment has developed in a manner not necessarily to the advantage to the inevitable advance of socialism in the rest of South America.

[jaichind]

I superficially mapped all the parties by Left Center and Right and looked at the 2014 balance of both houses after the 2014 elections vs after the 2018 elections

House      2014   2018
Left          169     162
Center      103       69
Right        241     282

Senate    2014    2018
Left           31       25
Center       21       18
Right         29       38

What's your breakdown of the parties?

I could very be wrong on some of them so take it with a grain of salt

Left:PT PDT PCdoB SD PSB PPS PPL PV PSOL REDE
Center: MDB PTB PTdoB PTN PMN PRP
Right: PP PSD PR PRB PROS PSDB DEM PEN PTC PHS PSL PSC PSDC PRTB NOVO

Note not all Right parties are free market.  Many are statist.  

[jaichind]

Interesting to see how Alckmin loses miserably but his coalition still gets several times more seats than that of any other candidate.

Also REDE and PV did not do that badly in the Congressional vote even as Marina Silva completely crashed and burned.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

By locking Lula up the centre-right basically followed their ideological ancestors' footsteps, who, back in 1964, opened the door for the military dictatorship by being primarily concerned with stopping the left. The very least they can do now is to strongly endorse Haddad as, in their view, the "lesser of two evils." But I have very little confidence in the decency of the Brazilian cucklordy.

I didn't expect, even with his late surge, that Haddad would do so well. It's clearly not because of him being a good candidate. As far as presidential results are concerned the voters overwhelmingly rejected the ruling establishment parties in favor of either Bolsonaro or PT/PDT (people didn't vote "for" Haddad, they voted for a Lula's stand-in).

I doubt Bolnosaro's victory can be prevented. The question is how strong anti-Bolsonaro forces are going to be come January.

[KingSweden]

Brazil goes from bad to worse, I see

[Mike88]

Reactions from abroad:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of Portugal: "The world woke up today with bad news of intolerance, chauvinism and xenophobia."

[Zuza]

Interesting to see how Alckmin loses miserably but his coalition still gets several times more seats than that of any other candidate.

Also REDE and PV did not do that badly in the Congressional vote even as Marina Silva completely crashed and burned.

Actually, they did badly (only 5 seats) compared to MDB+PHS (40 seats) or Podemos+PSC+PRP+PTC (25 seats) whose candidates got roughly as many votes as Marina.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What is the point of Podemos and their allies?

[BundouYMB]

What is the point of Podemos and their allies?

It's for shady old politicians who want to pretend to be some young hip 'movement.'

[Zuza]

What is the point of Podemos and their allies?

What is the point of most of the Brazilian parties?

Brazil currently probably has the most balkanized parliament ever, with a total of 30 parties and the largest of them barely getting 10 % of seats (the previous record holder could be Poland after the 1991 elections). And most of them are just tools of corrupt and/or populist politicians, typically without clear political positions and often with misleading names.

[jaichind]

Brazil's Bolsonaro Wins Friends Galore in Congressional Bear Pit
By Rachel Gamarski  and Samy Adghirni

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/brazil-s-bolsonaro-wins-friends-galore-in-congressional-bear-pit?srnd=markets-vp

Bloomberg seems to categorize parties along Pro-Market, Center, Statist
 

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[jaichind]

Interesting to see how Alckmin loses miserably but his coalition still gets several times more seats than that of any other candidate.

Also REDE and PV did not do that badly in the Congressional vote even as Marina Silva completely crashed and burned.

Actually, they did badly (only 5 seats) compared to MDB+PHS (40 seats) or Podemos+PSC+PRP+PTC (25 seats) whose candidates got roughly as many votes as Marina.

Yes.  I guess where I was going is with 1% of the vote in the Prez race winning 5+ seats for her bloc is pretty good.

[DavidB.]

NOVO and PP won't officially endorse anyone.

What's the deal with NOVO? Bolsonaro is too "statist"?

[jaichind]

PDT endorses  Haddad but Gomes will not campaign for Haddad

[jaichind]

Public prosecutor’s office in Brasilia is probing candidate Bolsonaro’s main economic adviser Paulo Guedes for alleged association with managers linked to politicians in order to fraud pension funds of state-controlled companies.  The planned delegation of economic policy by a Bolsonaro administration to Guedes is a key part of the market rally.  Now that is under threat.

[jaichind]

Datafolha poll is expected to be published 6pm EST.  Most of the commentary I read in the financial trading world seems to believe that the poll will show Bolsonaro with at least a 6% lead.  It seems even if Bolsonaro under-performs that the market will just brush it off after polls underestimated Bolsonaro before the first round.

[jaichind]

The same Datafolha  poll from 10/6 had Bolsonaro 45% Haddad 43% for second round.

This is too good to be true.  Most likely Bolsonaro support rate will fall and end up winning the election by something like 52-48.

[BBD]

The PT's gonna royally eff this up. There's just no path to victory for Haddad.

Ciro should've, could've, been the one to go up against Bolsonaro.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jaichind]

Looks like Marina Silva's REDE position is for its party members to vote Haddad or NULL but never Bolsonaro and will not campaign for Haddad.  So this is similar to the PDT's position of "critical support" of Haddad.  This seems mostly along what is expected.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why is Roraima so right wing?

[MAINEiac4434]

New XP/Ipespe poll:

Bolsonaro 51%
Hadddad 36%

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Je. Sus. Christ.