Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

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I think it would be for the best if everyone counted to ten and maybe took a little walk in the fresh air before pressing 'click' on any further Posts on this matter

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NMR, Bolsonaro winning in the first round ie >50% in Rd 1?

Or just leading in 1st round?

Thanks

The former is presently being rumoured.

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Bolsonaro is too extreme for Marine Le Pen, but not for the Wall Street Journal.

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The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

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What caused the realignment between 2002 and 2006? It went from PT dominating all along the coast to losing the southern part of that belt and having the NE/N as its stronghold (there is an overlap in the NE, but the difference is striking).

Realignment of politics around what's best thought of as caste ('race' isn't right for various reasons even if that was the point of origin) as a result of the PT's attempts to eliminate structural discrimination in Brazilian society.

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The point is that his injuries mean that he's good a really good excuse for ducking the debates - if he didn't have them then you'd probably see a serious attempt to hammer him on the issue. As it is... well, he really is a diabolically clever little monster.

This race is over.

It's been as good as over since those rumours about a possible first round victory circulated on election night. And quite possibly since Haddad established a clear lead over Gomes after receiving Lula's benediction.

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How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

Because some idiot stabbed him.

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Inevitable, but still not good. I suppose we have to hope that what happens next is at the better end of possibilities (i.e. that he governs as a democrat, that much of the rhetoric is just hot air etc, that, really, the future is just a continuation of the already pretty awful present rather than an escalation) but it's hard to feel confident about that.

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Anyway, there's a case that the biggest concern here isn't even with Bolsonaro, but with his running mate. Scary man.

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The Brazilian left could have rallied behind Ciro Gomes, ushering in a golden age.

I mean... probably not. But he would likely have won the election.

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Much of the discussion here has been beneath that which the IE board has become accustomed. If you have nothing of value to contribute please remain silent.

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Why have the PT collapsed so much in the ABC region around Sao Paulo?

They have been weakened a bit there by structural economic changes (less employment in heavy industry) but the main issue is simply that they have collapsed across urban Brazil as 'caste' lines have become more important than class ones.

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Bolsonaro looks and talks exactly like one of those guys that will be exposed by a newspaper in let's say 3 years, as he's exiting a gay nightclub at 3am ...

Are you saying that he reminds you of a specific individual in particular?

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