Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[mvd10]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

What does that mean? That no one can run for more than one term?

He didn't specify if it was only for certain offices such as president or not.

So he isn't planning on running for reelection?

Does abolishing elections also count as setting term limits for crooked establishment politicians? Without elections they can't run for reelection .

[Colbert]

based on this poll... :




... I made this graphic :

[jaichind]

MDA poll

Bolsonaro    48.8%
Haddad       36.7%

Normalized to Bolsonaro 57-43 victory.

[DavidB.]

Ibope has Bolsonaro 57 (-2), Haddad 43 (+2).

[BBD]

Datafolha poll has Bolsonaro 56% x Haddad 44%

Wow, it might actually end up being closer than expected. Or maybe the polls are wrong again, and Bolsonaro's gonna win a blowout.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Pro-Bolsonaro rallies happened today across 16 states (and the federal district), at least 57 states had pro-Bolsonaro events.

57 states?

[Lord Halifax]

These polls are all over the place. Which ones are most credible?

[Senator Incitatus]

These polls are all over the place. Which ones are most credible?

Does it really matter? They all show Bolsonaro winning easily.

I'd be interested in seeing some polls of other races, though.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for tomorrow:

57.4% Bolsonaro
42.6% Haddad

Turnout: 78.4%

[Lord Halifax]

These polls are all over the place. Which ones are most credible?

Does it really matter? They all show Bolsonaro winning easily.

I see you're not a betting man.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4950/What-will-the-margin-be-in-the-2nd-round-Brazilian-election

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4951/Will-winner-of-2nd-round-Brazilian-election-exceed-60

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I will never complain about differences between Polish polls.

[Lord Halifax]

New polls:

Vox Populi

Bolsonaro 43%
Haddad 43%
Blank/null/none 9%
Don't know 5%

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 50%
Haddad 50%

Do you have any explanation of why this is so different from the other polls? How good a pollster is Vox Populi?

[DavidB.]

The race seems to have tightened from 59-41 to 56-44 territory, but definitely not as much as the Vox Populi poll suggests.

Prediction (valid votes): Bolsonaro 56.5%, Haddad 43.5%, turnout 76.5%.

[jaichind]

Prediction:  Bolsonaro 53 Haddad 47

[Lord Halifax]

Prediction:  Bolsonaro 53 Haddad 47

I am torn between 55-45 and 56-44 as the most likely, but the race has definitely tightened and it seems likely more voters will get cold feet about Bolsonaro in the final days, so maybe you are right.

It's important to remember Bolsonaro is the more radical choice and thereby also the more risky one, and he has doubled down on some of his anti-democratic statements lately.

[BBD]

Given 2 more weeks, Haddad might be able to make up the margin.

[mvd10]

Final prediction:
Bolsonaro 53.6% Haddad 46.4%

The momentum seems to be with Haddad just like it was with Bolsonaro for the first round, so I expect Haddad to slightly overperform the polls. It still won't be enough though.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Bolsonaro: 55.9%
Haddad: 44.1%

[Donnie]

Final prediction:

Bolsonaro: 55%
Haddad 45%

[OBD]

Quick question: What if neither candidate gets 50% b/c of nulls? I'm not too knowledgeable about Brazil politics, please explain.

[Mike88]

Quick question: What if neither candidate gets 50% b/c of nulls? I'm not too knowledgeable about Brazil politics, please explain.

Null or blank votes don't count. Only valid votes count.

[OBD]

Quick question: What if neither candidate gets 50% b/c of nulls? I'm not too knowledgeable about Brazil politics, please explain.

Null or blank votes don't count. Only valid votes count.

Makes sense. Thanks!

[Mike88]

Some results from Portugal are available: In Lisbon, Bolsonaro won 64% and Haddad 36%. No results yet from Porto or Faro.

[Senator Incitatus]

Some results from Portugal are available: In Lisbon, Bolsonaro won 64% and Haddad 36%. No results yet from Porto or Faro.

What were the first round results in Lisbon?

[Mike88]

Some results from Portugal are available: In Lisbon, Bolsonaro won 64% and Haddad 36%. No results yet from Porto or Faro.

What were the first round results in Lisbon?

56.1% Bolsonaro
16.9% Ciro Gomes
13.5% Haddad
  4.8% Amoêdo
  3.0% Silva
  2.4% Alckmin
  3.3% Others