Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tiririca was re-elected. Bad news for all normal people, who rightfully oppose terrifying looking literal clowns in the public eye.

[jaichind]

Haddad repeats democracy is under threat. ``Our only weapon will be the argument to defend Brazil and its population."  Haddad says he already spoke to other candidates: Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes and Guilherme Boulos, said he called them and they kept contact.

Bolsonaro say there are two options for Brazilians now: values that he represents (family, God, justice) or Venezuela.

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro seems to be questioning the results. Says a lot of problems were reported with electronic ballots, and if it weren't for that, Brazil would have an elected president today.

[The Free North]

Do we have any maps yet?

[DavidB.]

Bolsonaro just hit 49 million votes.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I hate voters so much. Why couldn't they have all gone for Silva or Alckmin?

I guess I'm in for Haddad, as unlikely as his victory now seems.

[seb_pard]

Result are pretty stable now:

Bolsonaro            46.06%
Haddad               29.24%
Gomes                12.47%
Alckmin               4.76%
Amoedo               2.5%
Daciolo                1.26%
Meireles              1.20%
Silva                   1.00%

Both Bolsonaro and Haddad outperformed the exit poll and the last Ipobe. The later was 41% Bolsonaro, 25% Haddad, 13% Gomes (of valid votes). What we saw in the election was the total collapse of Alckmin and Marina, and probably most of the votes of the first went to Bolsonaro, meanwhile Marina's voters probably were to Haddad. Gomez just suffered a small underperformed but was under the margin of error probably.

[seb_pard]

Also, there is a (very) small chance that Bolsonaro ends under 46%, because most of the vote that is coming right now is over 60% Haddad. It not much, but we will see (currently Bolsonaro is at 46.05%)

[seb_pard]

From last Ibope

[VPH]

Anybody able to explain the geographic patterns of the results? I find interesting how well Bolsonaro did in the big cities.

[seb_pard]

Anybody able to explain the geographic patterns of the results? I find interesting how well Bolsonaro did in the big cities.

This is Latin America, politics is still highly correlated with income. Bolsonaro did very welll in the wealthiest states meanwhile Haddad had very good results in the Northeast, which is the poorest part of the country.

The right outperforms in the LatAm's big cities because is where most of the big industries are located. High middle class and high class are overrepresented in the big cities, and they are Bolsonaro's base right now.

[Hydera]

More interesting question is the Lula->Bolsonaro voters. Polling put Lula with a massive 1st round result had he been able to compete. So a lot of prospective Lula voters likely ended up voting for Bolsonaro. Perhaps it wasnt hard for those voters to go to Bolsonaro because they both were populists.

[ON Progressive]

The right outperforms in the LatAm's big cities because is where most of the big industries are located. High middle class and high class are overrepresented in the big cities, and they are Bolsonaro's base right now.

The wealthy supporting a fascist over a pro-democracy socialist is the least surprising thing of all time.

[jaichind]

All votes counted

Bolsonaro   46.03%
Haddad      29.28% 
Gomes       12.47%
Alckmin       4.76%

In the end Bolsonaro and Haddad both slightly over-performed as did Alckmin at the expense of Gomes and all other minor candidates. 

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I hate voters so much. Why couldn't they have all gone for Silva or Alckmin?

Neoliberal bubble in a nutshell.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I notice the "Party for Brazilian Women" (that mostly consisted of evangelical men) just missed out.

of all the many evangelical parties, which are the strictist? Also, is anyone surprised nobody has tried making a "Catholic" party as the religion starts to lose dominance in the Protestant onslaught?

[jaichind]

Out of 79 of 81 Senate seats announced PT will have 6.  Back in 2014 it had 12.  In the House it is not as bad.  PT has 55 out of 505 called from a total of 513.  Back in 2014 PT had 68.

[seb_pard]

Anyone knows if o profeta Daciolo will support one of the candidates in the runoff? As he didn't received 50% of the vote like he said I think his natural support is Bolsonaro but he accused him in the campaign of being part of the new world order and the Illuminatis, so maybe he can keep his campaign in the second round.

[jaichind]

Bovestpa futures open up 5%

[jaichind]

What is Bolsonaro's relationship with MDB?  It seems to me that a Center-Right bloc plus MDB should be able to get a majority of both houses. 

[Torie]

Maps.

[SInNYC]

All votes counted

Bolsonaro   46.03%
Haddad      29.28% 
Gomes       12.47%
Alckmin       4.76%

In the end Bolsonaro and Haddad both slightly over-performed as did Alckmin at the expense of Gomes and all other minor candidates. 

I find it interesting that the right wing NOVO and far right Patriot parties were 5th and 6th with 2.5 and 1.3%. Adding these to Bolsonaro gives him almost 50, so Haddad has his work cut out for him in the runoff. It looks like a dark day for democracy in Brazil.

[jaichind]

So 54 senators were elected last night and 27 where elected in 2014.  Is is suppose to be the norm going forward or are 27 out of the 54 elected last night meant to have a 4 year team and the other 27 a 8 year term ?

[jaichind]

I superficially mapped all the parties by Left Center and Right and looked at the 2014 balance of both houses after the 2014 elections vs after the 2018 elections

House      2014   2018
Left          169     162
Center      103       69
Right        241     282

Senate    2014    2018
Left           31       25
Center       21       18
Right         29       38

[jaichind]

It seems Gomes and PDT will give "critical support" to Haddad.  This is to be expected.