Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Hydera]

Why has Bolsonaro increased of reciently? Also, it seems he is the favourite to win the runoff now? RIP democratic Brazil

He is the anti PT candidate, many middle and upper class voters that don't want Haddad to be president are but weren't voting for him now are because he has the best chance to defeat Haddad. The anti PT movement in Brazil is still very strong.

Also Haddad is pretty much Brazil's Clinton. When he was mayor of São Paulo he agreed to hikes in public transport fares that caused a huge protest movement. So it figures why a lot of harder left voters might stay out.

[Hydera]

More interesting question is the Lula->Bolsonaro voters. Polling put Lula with a massive 1st round result had he been able to compete. So a lot of prospective Lula voters likely ended up voting for Bolsonaro. Perhaps it wasnt hard for those voters to go to Bolsonaro because they both were populists.

[Hydera]

The evolution of PT presidential support:



Of course you can immediately see that there's always an essential instability to electoral patterns in Brazil. However there is a story here and it links into the PTs attempts in government to hack away at the caste divisions (I don't think 'race' is quite right) in Brazilian society, which has led to a realignment of politics around those divisions.

What's the deal with the great PT result in that far south province in 1998?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonel_Brizola

Guy was a popular politician in Rio Grande do Sul. And leant his support to Lula in the second round of the 1989 election to which Lula got 68% there in 1989.

PT usually did better there compared to other South Brazil states since 2002. and Dilma almost won it in 2010 and 2014 because it was her adopted home state after she moved there in the 1980s.

Its likely this time though that Bolsonaro will win it by a much higher margin but still it likely will be PT's best performance in the South again.

[Hydera]

What caused the realignment between 2002 and 2006? It went from PT dominating all along the coast to losing the southern part of that belt and having the NE/N as its stronghold (there is an overlap in the NE, but the difference is striking).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensal%C3%A3o_scandal

Alckmin was from the South and from 2006 on the PSDB campaigned on swinging the middle classes which worked.

At the same time the North which ironically voted for conservative candidates prior to 2002 because of Clientism. Switched en masse to the PT as well as finally voting rather than voting blank since poverty in that region made people distrustful of politics until Lula implemented his social programs like Bolsa Familia.

[Hydera]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

It isn't based of any order from doctors, it was his choice. He is already way up ahead on the polls, going to the debate doesn't make sense, Lula also skipped a lot of debates back in 2006. Bolsonaro keeps saying he won't debate with a puppet.

So the political cultural in Brazil is that no debating just because you are ahead not lead to political blow-back ?  If a popular USA incumbent who is well ahead in the polls refuse to debate then his or her poll ratings will fall quite a bit in my view.

For democrats sure, but for republicans if they can forgive trump for the access hollywood tape they can forgive him for not attending a debate.

[Hydera]

How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

Polls didnt predict how strong he'll be on the first round. He was polling in the 30s and got 46% as if a monolithic amount of undecideds broke for him which probably happened. Plus he had strong support in the Brazillian evangelical community and while their 25% of Brazil's population. A strong turnout of these voters combined with other brazillians divided with other candidates as well as people voting blank/null etc. Did well to boost his numbers.

[Hydera]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

Also, here are some Ibope state polls about the presidential race:

Amapá

Jair Bolsonaro 52%
Fernando Haddad 48%

Amazonas

Bolsonaro 61%
Haddad 39%

Federal District

Bolsonaro 70%
Haddad 30%

Mato Grosso do Sul

Bolsonaro 64%
Haddad 36%

Minas Gerais

Bolsonaro 62%
Haddad 38%

Pará

Haddad 51%
Bolsonaro 49%

Rio de Janeiro

Bolsonaro 65%
Haddad 35%

Rio Grande do Norte

Haddad 57%
Bolsonaro 43%

Rio Grande do Sul

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rondonia

Jair Bolsonaro 78%
Fernando Haddad  22%

Roraima

Jair Bolsonaro 77%
Fernando Haddad  23%

Santa Catarina

Jair Bolsonaro 74%
Fernando Haddad 26%

São Paulo

Bolsonaro 63%
Haddad 37%

Sergipe

Haddad 67%
Bolsonaro 33%

Dat underperformance in Sao Paulo.  Not that it matters since he'll outperform Aecio in places like Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro but my guess is that he does do better in SP on election day unless some magic happens in which Haddad overperforms expectations(and still loses)

[Hydera]

Exit polls:

São Paulo

João Doria (PSDB): 52 %
Marcio França (PSB): 48 %

Is this not a bit positive for  Haddad?  It does seem to indicate that the first round MDB vote more likely or not tilted Left.  Is that right ?

Not really indicative of anything, Plus polls show that the race was going to be close anyways.

[Hydera]

https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2018/10/29/actualidad/1540828734_083649.html


If anybody wants to make more observations theres a interactive map of Brazil on the Municipal level that is scroll able.