Afghan government collapse.

[2952-0-0]

We were all waiting for the helicopter-in-Saigon photo. Here it is.

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1426792788272640001

[Frodo]

We were all waiting for the helicopter-in-Saigon photo. Here it is.

https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1426792788272640001

When this is all over, Ken Burns should create a documentary about our involvement in Afghanistan not unlike his original 'The Vietnam War' film that came out on PBS in 2017.  

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

South Vietnam really put up more of a fight.

[Cassius]

South Vietnam really put up more of a fight.

Which, of course, is precisely why panicked calls to ‘do something’ and somehow prop the situation up make no sense. There is nothing to prop up anymore.

[WMS]

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Reasonable chance that there is - at least for a time - a bizarre echo of Afghanistan's situation after the Second Anglo-Afghan War, with Pakistan taking the place of the Raj and setting Afghanistan's foreign policy for it.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Yeah, as long as Pakistan was providing aid and support to the Taliban the 2% chance of things working out was cut in half.

Once we evacuate everyone we should evacuate - as many Afghans as we can - and leave entirely, can we at least cut off all aid to those treacherous Pakistani snakes?

Pakistan's position is more or less delicate management of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations (a good offense is the best defense) through any means it feels are necessary, even if that means getting one's hands messy and doing things that might look hard to justify to an outward observer.
Not that I expected anything besides misinformed views from most Americans on this issue.
Reality tends to be nuanced. Pakistan is in a tough neighborhood. I suggest you read up on the history of the Durand Line and consider the difficulties Pakistan's geography presents.

Hold on there, are you justifying the actions of the Pakistani government as a whole and the ISI in particular in Afghanistan? Because they have indirectly and directly lead to the deaths of thousands of Americans and many, many more Afghanis of all stripes. Those are the actions of a hostile power, not one the U.S. should be giving aid to.
I know damn well about Pakistani geography issues. There were plenty of articles about Pakistani needs for strategic depth versus India as well as the artificial nature of the border with Afghanistan. I can see their desire for a friendly power in Afghanistan.
But Pakistan didn’t have to choose to support the most brutal and extreme Afghani factions, now did they? They chose to support Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, and then the Taliban. They chose to give aid and refuge to both the Taliban and Al-Qaida. They chose to send their own military against Ahmad Shah Massoud, the one Afghani leader who actually wanted something better for the Afghani people.
As long as the U.S. was dependent on the logistical supply chain through Pakistan little could be done about any of this. But that’s coming to an end.
So why in the hell should the U.S. give a penny to Pakistan after they leave the region? They’re not even our ally, but China’s!
A lot of people on this forum want the U.S. to cut ties with Saudi Arabia. There’s at least as good of a case to do so with Pakistan.

[thumb21]

There seem to be conflicting reports about whether the Taliban is actually inside Kabul or has stopped at the outer limits, but the Taliban released this statement.

Not entirely clear what the 'transition' means, except giving foreigners and officials time to flee.

https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1426816258763333637

[CumbrianLefty]

This is objectively pretty disastrous, but ngl - the neocon screams and tears are a consolation.

[Third Party]

The Taliban are now entering Kabul from all directions. They encountering no resistance. This is history in the making. Here is a Twitter video I found of them peacefully marching through the streets of Kabul:

https://twitter.com/kashmirAdolph/status/1426818409635794947

[CumbrianLefty]

You almost sound pleased, do you actually support these monsters?

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/MaherFarrukh/status/1426840681755119617

[President Johnson]

Looks like it's over:

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1426819854183641088

[Silent Hunter]

British Parliament is being recalled next week over all this.

[Crumpets]

An unnamed Taliban official is saying they will allow foreigners to leave through the airport and foreigners wishing to remain in Afghanistan will have to register with the new government. Good news if true. Unfortunately, something tells me the same doesn't apply to any local Afghans who also want to leave.

One thing I'm curious about is how relations will be conducted between western states and the Taliban going forward. I assume we'll just work through some friendly country like Qatar or Pakistan and won't have our own embassies in Kabul? How did it work in the 90s, if anyone remembers?

[CumbrianLefty]

British Parliament is being recalled next week over all this.

Almost the ultimate pointless gesturing.

About the one useful thing it could do is agree to let in any anti-Taliban Afghans who want to come here (I don't suppose it will surprise anyone that the sociopaths in the Home Office oppose this)

[Crumpets]

Good to know it's not just the US who are being dicks about this.

https://twitter.com/matt_meeta/status/1426855637254873096

[CumbrianLefty]

Said bureaucratic mentality is much the same everywhere, alas.

[jaichind]

 I guess it is like what they say about going bankrupt: “Gradually, then suddenly.”

[Crumpets]

While searching for live coverage, I came across this Afghan news stream that seems to still be operating as usual, although I obviously don't speak Pashto to know for sure. I don't know if it's based in Kabul or somewhere outside of the country, but it might be an interesting feed to check in on today to see the state of independent/private media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzm6t6mIbTM

[jaichind]

South Vietnam really put up more of a fight.

My comparison is pro-USSR Republic of Afghanistan government.  Even after the USSR troops pulled out they continued to exist although with smaller and smaller areas of control.   The held out for 3 more years and only fell when all USSR aid disappeared as USSR itself disappeared at the end of 1991.

[jaichind]

While searching for live coverage, I came across this Afghan news stream that seems to still be operating as usual, although I obviously don't speak Pashto to know for sure. I don't know if it's based in Kabul or somewhere outside of the country, but it might be an interesting feed to check in on today to see the state of independent/private media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzm6t6mIbTM

I am curious when they will switch over to

https://youtu.be/W4jWAwUb63c?t=35

[Crumpets]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/AsYouNotWish/status/1426845547583795202

[CumbrianLefty]

South Vietnam really put up more of a fight.

My comparison is pro-USSR Republic of Afghanistan government.  Even after the USSR troops pulled out they continued to exist although with smaller and smaller areas of control.   The held out for 3 more years and only fell when all USSR aid disappeared as USSR itself disappeared at the end of 1991.

Actually that government outlasted the USSR itself. But in April 1992 certain "warlord" figures made a deal with the insurgents and withdrew their support - and after that it fell in days with barely a shot being fired, very like now.

[jaichind]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/AsYouNotWish/status/1426845547583795202

Its because of

https://www.news18.com/news/world/russia-says-taliban-promised-safety-of-embassy-in-afghanistans-kabul-4088771.html

"Russia Says Taliban Promised Safety of Embassy in Afghanistan's Kabul"

I think Biden had "urged" the Taliban to make similar promises for USA embassy but got no response.  I think the Taliban have learned a lot in their 20 years in the wilderness and most likely will let the USA citizens leave in peace and allow the USA embassy to operate if they choose to stay.

[WMS]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/AsYouNotWish/status/1426845547583795202

Its because of

https://www.news18.com/news/world/russia-says-taliban-promised-safety-of-embassy-in-afghanistans-kabul-4088771.html

"Russia Says Taliban Promised Safety of Embassy in Afghanistan's Kabul"

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Yup.

[Crumpets]

Interesting.

https://twitter.com/AsYouNotWish/status/1426845547583795202

Its because of

https://www.news18.com/news/world/russia-says-taliban-promised-safety-of-embassy-in-afghanistans-kabul-4088771.html

"Russia Says Taliban Promised Safety of Embassy in Afghanistan's Kabul"

How many countries will recognize a Taliban-led Afghanistan?

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Russian puppet states, Myanmar, Syria initially and fairly quickly. Then most of the other oppressive governments out there, and some of the less scrupulous semi-democracies and democracies.

It would be nice to be wrong, but I doubt it.

Yup.

While I think I agree with the rest, I'm not sure about Syria. The bulk of remaining rebel groups in Idlib are very Taliban friendly and will probably recognize the new government. Assad meanwhile does not want to legitimize Sunni Islamist insurgencies. The anti-American/anti-imperialist screw you probably won't be enough to get over that hurdle.