Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Хahar 🤔]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

[ottermax]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

Eew... no. Stephane Dion is really annoying. I mean he would be a better PM, but the Liberals are just messy and they need to realign themselves. 

Doesn't the Bloc use Quebec-esque colors that don't confuse with the Blue of the Tories?

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

[Smid]

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

^^^^^^ I'm hoping to see a Tory majority Government on the back of the Greens splitting the NDP and Grit vote, too!!!

[Verily]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

Eew... no. Stephane Dion is really annoying. I mean he would be a better PM, but the Liberals are just messy and they need to realign themselves. 

Doesn't the Bloc use Quebec-esque colors that don't confuse with the Blue of the Tories?

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

The Bloc uses sky blue, almost aqua. The Conservatives use royal blue.

[cinyc]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

Eew... no. Stephane Dion is really annoying. I mean he would be a better PM, but the Liberals are just messy and they need to realign themselves. 

Doesn't the Bloc use Quebec-esque colors that don't confuse with the Blue of the Tories?

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

The Bloc uses sky blue, almost aqua. The Conservatives use royal blue.

Except in the graphic I "borrowed" from CTV, the Bloc is dark red for some unknown reason.

In today's CTV/Strategic Counsel dump, the Tories are up in Ontario and Quebec (along with the Bloc) for some reason:

[minionofmidas]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

very close last time.  i understand the race is a rematch of the 06 race.  will thilbault hold on?

Should be close. Thibault may be kept alive by an increase in dipper tactical voting - they can't win here but have a sizable presence.

[Hash]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

It will be interesting to see whether the Atlantic Accord hits the Conservatives in NS.

[Hash]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

[MaxQue]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

In Quebec, his prevision is quite good outside of Montreal and Eastern Quebec. He has the same numbers than me for my riding, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou. He underestimates Liberals outside Montreal and overestimates Liberals in Montreal.

[Хahar 🤔]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

Eew... no. Stephane Dion is really annoying. I mean he would be a better PM, but the Liberals are just messy and they need to realign themselves. 

Doesn't the Bloc use Quebec-esque colors that don't confuse with the Blue of the Tories?

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

Uhh...what?

Anyway, I have come to the conclusion that the Greens are a meaningless party. There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

[Hatman 🍁]

What sort of colors are they using for the Bloc? Ugly.

Anyway, Liberal minority government. Please.

Eew... no. Stephane Dion is really annoying. I mean he would be a better PM, but the Liberals are just messy and they need to realign themselves. 

Doesn't the Bloc use Quebec-esque colors that don't confuse with the Blue of the Tories?

Go Elizabeth May and the Greens!

Uhh...what?

Anyway, I have come to the conclusion that the Greens are a meaningless party. There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Exactly. The NDP is Canada's real Green Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

lol. No way Ottawa South goes Conservative. Ever.

[Хahar 🤔]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Yes there is; they take their support from a different part of the electorate.

[Хahar 🤔]

There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Yes there is; they take their support from a different part of the electorate.

Policy-wise, I mean. The Greens are the party of the urban elite who don't like voting Liberal, I know.

[Verily]

There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Yes there is; they take their support from a different part of the electorate.

Policy-wise, I mean. The Greens are the party of the urban elite who don't like voting Liberal, I know.

Not the "urban elite" (who remain monolithically Liberal). The young. The Greens are taking about 20% of the under-25 vote, against about 5% of the over-65 vote. The Liberals, by contrast, have the strongest skew to the elderly of all parties; while they win less than 20% of the under-25 vote, the Liberals win about 30% of the over-65 vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually what I was getting at (in part) was their rural vote; in places there's a very interesting overlap with areas of early Reform support.

[Hatman 🍁]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

I will be making mine of course, and will do very well like I did in the provincial election

[Хahar 🤔]

Actually what I was getting at (in part) was their rural vote; in places there's a very interesting overlap with areas of early Reform support.

Could you make a map?

[Verily]

Actually what I was getting at (in part) was their rural vote; in places there's a very interesting overlap with areas of early Reform support.

That's true, too, but I think it may be superficial (maybe not, maybe these are the NDP-Reform switchers who never returned to the NDP). After all, the Greens poll well in, say, BC, but it's mostly where you'd expect: Vancouver and Vancouver Island. Not so much the rural interior.

The one major exception is rural Alberta, where the Greens may take second in most or all of the ridings. But that's because the word "Green" is currently slightly less toxic in such areas than "NDP" or "Liberal".

[WalterMitty]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

It will be interesting to see whether the Atlantic Accord hits the Conservatives in NS.

do you think it will?

[Hatman 🍁]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

It will be interesting to see whether the Atlantic Accord hits the Conservatives in NS.

do you think it will?

Yes, I think so.

[cinyc]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

The Election Prediction Project does - and they're usually pretty accurate.  As of right now, they're projecting Tories 111
Grits 71
Bloc 29
NDP 18
Others 2 (both independents)
Too Close 77

[minionofmidas]

There is no distinction between them and the Grits. None.

Yes there is; they take their support from a different part of the electorate.

Policy-wise, I mean. The Greens are the party of the urban elite who don't like voting Liberal, I know.

Not the "urban elite" (who remain monolithically Liberal). The young.

The children of the urban elite are part of the urban elite.

[Hash]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

The Election Prediction Project does - and they're usually pretty accurate.  As of right now, they're projecting Tories 111
Grits 71
Bloc 29
NDP 18
Others 2 (both independents)
Too Close 77

Election Prediction is the best for seat predictions.