Canada 2008: Official Thread

[ottermax]

Wasn't there some talk a few years ago of the Bloc running candidates in some of the Francophone ridings in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan? I seem to recall reading it somewhere.

I doubt there are enough Francophone separatists in any of those areas for there to even be a candidate. Not all Francophones are separatists.

[Verily]

Harper and Layton have caved to public pressure and said that they will not, after all, boycott any debate where May is allowed to debate. (Duceppe had said that he opposed her being admitted but would not boycott such a debate.) So May will be in the leaders' debate after all. She will be one of the more interesting stories there mostly because very few Canadians have an opinion of her while opinions on the other four are all quite solidly established.

Interestingly, a recent poll (forget by whom) had Duceppe as by far the most popular of the party leaders at around 60% favorable. Layton was next at around 55% favorable, then Harper around 45% favorable, and Dion at about 30% favorable. May also had about 30% favorable, but a full 50% had no opinion of her.

[Хahar 🤔]

Nobody cares about Duceppe enough to dislike him, I see. Same with Layton.

Wasn't there some talk a few years ago of the Bloc running candidates in some of the Francophone ridings in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan? I seem to recall reading it somewhere.

I doubt there are enough Francophone separatists in any of those areas for there to even be a candidate. Not all Francophones are separatists.

It would be odd, unless they became the Bloc Francophone.

[2952-0-0]

Maybe there should be an Ethnic Chinese Party. Or Ethnic Italian or Portuguese Party. Or a Punjabi Party. Or...

[minionofmidas]

Nobody cares about Duceppe enough to dislike him, I see. Same with Layton.

Wasn't there some talk a few years ago of the Bloc running candidates in some of the Francophone ridings in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan? I seem to recall reading it somewhere.

I doubt there are enough Francophone separatists in any of those areas for there to even be a candidate. Not all Francophones are separatists.

It would be odd, unless they became the Bloc Francophone.

Just run a subsidiary called the Bloc Acadien in NB, and a Bloc Métis in Manitoba. The Francophones in Ontario are, of course, Québecois by descent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just run a subsidiary called the Bloc Acadien in NB

Godin is basically Bloc Acadien anyway

[minionofmidas]

Just run a subsidiary called the Bloc Acadien in NB

Godin is basically Bloc Acadien anyway

I thought about adding something to that effect.

[Hash]

Wasn't there some talk a few years ago of the Bloc running candidates in some of the Francophone ridings in the Maritimes and Saskatchewan? I seem to recall reading it somewhere.

It is the Bloc Quebecois, not the Bloc Francophone.

[Verily]

Nanos, which I now know is SES, has their first iteration of their daily tracker. It's less good for the Conservatives than the others, but the Conservatives are still ahead by about the same amount as in 2006. The NDP are the ones in real trouble.

Con: 37
Lib: 32
NDP: 13
BQ: 9
Green: 9

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/78

[Hash]

Serious pollsters alert.

Nanos
Con 37
Lib 32
NDP 13
Bloc 9
Greenies 9

No regional breakdown.

Other less serious pollsters.

EKOS
Con 37
Lib 32
NDP 19
Bloc 8
Greenies 10

EKOS also gives a seat projection
Con 152
Lib 82
NDP 37
Bloc 33

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008/09/ekos-first-seat-projection/

Seat projections in 2006 were quite awful IIRC.

Another slightly more serious projection by UBC
Con 145
Lib 85
NDP 42
Bloc 32
Others 4

[Verily]

Does UBC have a breakdown of which seats they expect to switch? That looks awfully generous to the NDP, and also to the Liberals in Quebec (who I assume they have taking a bunch of seats from the Bloc, not going to happen).

[Hash]

Does UBC have a breakdown of which seats they expect to switch? That looks awfully generous to the NDP, and also to the Liberals in Quebec (who I assume they have taking a bunch of seats from the Bloc, not going to happen).

No.

I'm also wondering about their 4 Other seats. There's Maurice Duplessis Jr. in there for sure, maybe Bill Casey, maybe 2 Greenies (May and Wilson?).

[Verily]

Does UBC have a breakdown of which seats they expect to switch? That looks awfully generous to the NDP, and also to the Liberals in Quebec (who I assume they have taking a bunch of seats from the Bloc, not going to happen).

No.

I'm also wondering about their 4 Other seats. There's Maurice Duplessis Jr. in there for sure, maybe Bill Casey, maybe 2 Greenies (May and Wilson?).

Bill Casey isn't much of a "maybe", he's a "yes". But the other two must be Greens; there are no major independents anywhere I know of. Could be Carr or Lewis or Nagy or Jolley (is he running?) instead of either May or Wilson, too. (Personally, I think Wilson is doomed, although second place isn't out of the question.)

A lot of the Greens' performance depends on the Leaders' Debate. As I've mentioned before, about half of all Canadians have no idea what to think of May, but almost everyone has made up their minds about the other four. It'll be interesting to see how that affects Green numbers post-debate.

[Hash]

Jolley (is he running?)

Apparently not.

(Personally, I think Wilson is doomed, although second place isn't out of the question.)

I agree.

A lot of the Greens' performance depends on the Leaders' Debate. As I've mentioned before, about half of all Canadians have no idea what to think of May, but almost everyone has made up their minds about the other four. It'll be interesting to see how that affects Green numbers post-debate.

Rick Mercer seems to think (he's being serious) that May will do quite good in the debate, predominantly against Harper.

[cinyc]

Harper and Layton have caved to public pressure and said that they will not, after all, boycott any debate where May is allowed to debate. (Duceppe had said that he opposed her being admitted but would not boycott such a debate.) So May will be in the leaders' debate after all. She will be one of the more interesting stories there mostly because very few Canadians have an opinion of her while opinions on the other four are all quite solidly established.

Interestingly, a recent poll (forget by whom) had Duceppe as by far the most popular of the party leaders at around 60% favorable. Layton was next at around 55% favorable, then Harper around 45% favorable, and Dion at about 30% favorable. May also had about 30% favorable, but a full 50% had no opinion of her.

I wonder if she'll call Canadians stupid on national television, like she did on the radio.

[Meeker]

Is André Arthur not running again?

[Hash]

Is André Arthur not running again?

Yes he is. And the Tories are not running one of their own against him.

He's a Tory anyways. And a bit more fascist.

[minionofmidas]

He'll be included in the four.

[Hash]

He'll be included in the four.

He is referred to as "Maurice Duplessis Jr."

[minionofmidas]

He'll be included in the four.

He is referred to as "Maurice Duplessis Jr."

Oh.

[Verily]

Friday - September 12, 2008

Nanos Tracking Poll
Conservatives - 38% (+1)
Liberals - 31% (-1)
New Democrats - 14% (+1)
Bloc Québécois - 9% (nc)
Greens - 9% (nc)

[Hash]

Harris-Decima, which seems to prefer joke status, has the Forces of Darkness at 41%.

[Hash]

An update on Bill Casey's riding.

Since I was bored, I looked up the candidates.

Apart from him, the Conservatives are running Joel Bernard. He is from New Brunswick and lives in Orleans (next door to Ottawa). I doubt he's even been to Cumberland-Colchester. Lol.

The Liberals are running Tracy Parsons, the former leader of the Progressive Canadian thingee that has since been almost entirely absorbed into the Liberal Party.

Safe Indie.

[Hash]

Laurier University prediction map:

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/fedblog/?page_id=46

Their Maritime predictions are a bit silly.

[Verily]

New EKOS poll:

Con: 36 (-1)
Lib: 26 (nc)
NDP: 19 (nc)
Green: 11 (+1)
BQ: 8 (nc)