Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Verily]

The NDP's Quebec numbers are definitely interesting (good news for Boivin, Lagace Dowson, etc., but bad news for NDP candidates outside Quebec). But Nanos has been more or less alone in predicting such strong NDP numbers in Quebec as well as in predicting the NDP to do nearly equally well in Quebec as elsewhere.

It's worth noting that it still looks as if most NDP Quebec support is coming from the Bloc; the Liberals are not substantially up or down from their 2006 results in the province. Same goes for the Greens.

[WalterMitty]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

[Хahar 🤔]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

Manning could conceivably fall in Avalon.

Williams is very, very, very popular. Don't underestimate him.

[cinyc]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

The Tories only have 3 ridings in Newfoundland and Labrador.  One current cabinet minister isn't seeking re-election.  The Election Projection Project thinks the Conservatives will lose that consitutency to the Liberals.  And they may lose one or both of the others as well.   Plus, Danny Williams' campaign will probably hurt the Conservatives' chances in another riding that was very close in 2006.

But again, it's only up to 3 ridings - the Conservatives would have to make them up somewhere if lost.  It's not as if the popular Conservative Premier of Ontario (yes, that's a non-existent oxymoron) launched an ABC campaign.

It's not entirely clear whether the ABC campaign is working.  According to a recent NTV poll, 27% of Newfounfland and Labrador voters weren't aware of the ABC campaign, only 26% of those who are aware and have made up their mind about who to vote for said the ABC campaign was a factor, and 31% of those who haven't made up their mind said it could have an effect.  It's not clear what percentage of those voters voted for the Federal Tories in 2006.

Those numbers seem low - but they could swing the elections in Avalon and St. John's East IF the ABC voters all vote for the same candidate. 

Note that NTV said Telelink (who conducted the poll) had a more difficult time than usual finding willing participants - perhaps because of the alleged intimidation tactics reportedly used by Premier Williams.

NTV/Telelink Newfoundland and Labrador Poll
Liberals 19.1%
Conservative 14.3%
NDP 8.8%
Green 0.7%
Other 2.1%
UNDECIDED 55%
MOE +/-3.3; Dates unknown (on or before September 10)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not as if the popular Conservative Premier of Ontario (yes, that's a non-existent oxymoron)

Ah, how things have changed from the era of the Big Blue Machine...

[Verily]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

Manning could conceivably fall in Avalon.

Williams is very, very, very popular. Don't underestimate him.

If the Conservatives win anywhere in NL, it will be Avalon. First off, they have no incumbents in the other two ridings. St John's South-Mount Pearl might stay Conservative if the Liberals and NDP split the vote, but St. John's East is definitely going NDP (or, rather, going Jack Harris). And St. John's South is only about 20% odds of a Conservative hold; I would currently project it for the NDP, too.

[Хahar 🤔]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

Manning could conceivably fall in Avalon.

Williams is very, very, very popular. Don't underestimate him.

If the Conservatives win anywhere in NL, it will be Avalon. First off, they have no incumbents in the other two ridings. St John's South-Mount Pearl might stay Conservative if the Liberals and NDP split the vote, but St. John's East is definitely going NDP (or, rather, going Jack Harris). And St. John's South is only about 20% odds of a Conservative hold; I would currently project it for the NDP, too.

Exactly. I expect the others to fall anyway.

[Hatman 🍁]

can someone explain to me what impact, if any, danny williams and his 'abc' campaign will have on the election.

from what i read, this fellow sounds like a blowhard.

Manning could conceivably fall in Avalon.

Williams is very, very, very popular. Don't underestimate him.

If the Conservatives win anywhere in NL, it will be Avalon. First off, they have no incumbents in the other two ridings. St John's South-Mount Pearl might stay Conservative if the Liberals and NDP split the vote, but St. John's East is definitely going NDP (or, rather, going Jack Harris). And St. John's South is only about 20% odds of a Conservative hold; I would currently project it for the NDP, too.

Wow, that's what I heard from an NDP insider, that he thinks we'll pick up both St. John's seats. I didn't really believe him at the time, and still can't!

As for the Nanos #s in Quebec... wtf? NDP at 17?  

[WalterMitty]

i was glad to see toronto mayor david miller call for a handgun ban a day after a school shooting in his city.

[Hatman 🍁]

i was glad to see toronto mayor david miller call for a handgun ban a day after a school shooting in his city.

Indeed. The man is a good NDPer

[WalterMitty]

i was glad to see toronto mayor david miller call for a handgun ban a day after a school shooting in his city.

Indeed. The man is a good NDPer

and he pretty much endorsed the greens.

[Hash]

A few Quebec polls (most from jokes) show the NDP higher in Quebec than in Ontario.

[Verily]

Those of you who have been paying close attention to candidate selection might have noticed a bizarre choice on the part of the NDP in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country, which happens to be Blair Wilson's seat. They had nominated a relatively new member of the party, a man who also happened to be the former leader of the British Columbia Marijuana Party. This would be amusing enough, but now they've had to pull him as a candidate after a video emerged online of him not only smoking marijuana, but also taking LSD and driving while heavily drugged up.

Presumably, the NDP will look for a new candidate rather than taking the chance of the Greens winning a seat in Parliament.

[Хahar 🤔]

Gabu's dad?

[Hash]

Gabu's dad?

Blair Longley is in the federal Marijuana Party.

[Bacon King]

Gabu's dad?

Blair Longley is in the federal Marijuana Party.

And still the current leader of it IIRC. This guy is probably a former leader.

[Hash]

Gabu's dad?

Blair Longley is in the federal Marijuana Party.

And still the current leader of it IIRC. This guy is probably a former leader.

I think so. I don't know for sure because the Marijuana Party doesn't amuse me as it did in 2004. The Newfoundland and Labrador First Party is more amusing.

The guy in question is the former leader of the BC Marijuana Party.

[Hash]

Update on the battleground thingees: http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON, Bloc is in the lead for Quebec, and Tories still lead BC.

[cinyc]

Update on the battleground thingees: http://www.ctv.ca/mini/election2008/polltracker.html

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON, Bloc is in the lead for Quebec, and Tories still lead BC.

I don't know if this flipped in the past few hours, but the Forces of Darkness Light are now slightly ahead in Quebec.  The Bloc seems to be dropping like a rock in many polls.

[cp]

Thank you for posting the graphs of those swing riding polls. It makes comparison a whole lot easier

Two things to note about them, it's worth taking these data with a truckload of salt. By limiting themselves to 45 ridings, all so spread out, they're corrupting the sample pool. This isn't fatal, as all sample pools are inherently somewhat corrupted, but adding to it makes the figures less reliable. Also the number of people polled is lower (and the margin of error higher) across the board, so I'm a little dubious about these polls overall. What they're best for is what you've done with them, cinyc: observing long term trends. On that note . . .

It seems like the Liberals are clawing back their lead in Central Canada. This pretty much precludes a Tory majority, especially if the Greens and NDP stay where they are around 15% (the NDP's above that now, and good for them, but I wonder even more about the accuracy of NDP/Green returns because of how small the support is to begin with). More bad news for the NDP comes from BC where it seems they've been on a constant downward slide. If that continues you might see the Tories take a huge number of the seats, wiping out the Liberals and all but destroying the NDP.

The really interesting thing, though again highly dubious because of the sample size, is the rise of the Green Party in Quebec. It's very small, but I think it's significant as the Green Party has done significantly worse in Quebec than in the rest of the country in the pre-election polls. That they're now matching the rest of the country (around 10% instead of 5%) might mean they'll play spoiler in ridings where the NDP might try to knock off the Bloc or the Liberals, or where the Conservatives are trying to knock off the Bloc.

[minionofmidas]

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON

Conservatives and Greens at 0?

Since as the Liberals are a subset of the Forces of Darkness, for them to be tied with the Forces of Darkness ...

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals now tied with Forces of Darkness in ON

Conservatives and Greens at 0?

Since as the Liberals are a subset of the Forces of Darkness, for them to be tied with the Forces of Darkness ...

Hahaha. I love you Lewis!

I wonder what's explaining the NDP #s in BC. Surely it's not all to blame on Dana Larsen. I just hope Peter Julian hangs on!

[Verily]

Bah, well, I missed a couple of days of posting the trackers. Here's a summary of what's happened:

1. The Conservatives have gained back lost ground, edging into borderline majority territory.
2. The Liberals have slid back in parallel with the Conservative rise.
3. The NDP has remained more or less stable around their 2006 final result (although below where they were polling prior to the 2006 election).
4. The Bloc has recovered some ground that it lost earlier in the campaign to reach the low 30s, but is still well below its 2006 numbers.
5. The pollsters have diverged in their assessments of the Greens, with Nanos showing a Green decline and then slight uptick today while both Decima and EKOS showed the Greens steadily rising and reaching new heights.


Decima and EKOS continue to consistently show the Bloc well ahead of the Conservatives in Quebec while Nanos shows the two parties essentially tied in the province. This certainly doesn't have to do with any Conservative-friendliness from Nanos; Nanos shows the lowest Conservative lead overall, and by far. That will make Quebec interesting to watch.

[Hash]

I hope the Tories lose a few points in the next few polls in the light of Gerry Ritz's incompetence and disgusting comments, and also the Tories contempt for Native Americans.

[WalterMitty]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

very close last time.  i understand the race is a rematch of the 06 race.  will thilbault hold on?

im interested in nova scotia in particular, because its am radio stations come booming over the salt water at night here in massachusetts.