COVID-19 Megathread 4: Grandma Got Run Over by the Dow Jones

[Grassroots]

How stupid are Michigan Republicans?

https://twitter.com/MI_Republicans/status/1250463355468423170

LOLZ getting sick to own the libz!

Went on Snapchat map to view public stories in the area, it appears a bunch of people, including teenagers with "young people against Whitmer" signs have started physically protesting outside the capital.

What did she do even? How could anyone protest her?

[Grassroots]

Governor Cuomo mandating the wearing of masks in public (where social distancing is not possible):

https://mobile.twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1250472598720430086

Is this really necessary?  NYS has already peaked in terms of deaths/new infections, and the added benefit of masks is extremely marginal at best.

People in Wuhan are still wearing them, people in SK are wearing them, people in Spain are wearing them despite Spain's infected rate freefalling.

[Grassroots]

A friend of mine told me that even a vaccine won't be very helpful, since the virus is likely to mutate and render such a vaccine useless. We will be socially distancing for many years to come.

This virus isn't mutating fast at all, and the fact that this virus is slowly mutating might if anything make it much easier to make a vaccine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8208379/Coronavirus-mutating-slowly-giving-scientists-time-develop-vaccine.html

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/26/822107691/the-coronavirus-is-mutating-relatively-slowly-which-may-be-good-news

[Grassroots]

Protesters in Michigan have Trump flags and Confederate flags. Suffice to say, this protest is really NOT about Whitmer, is it.

https://twitter.com/tburages/status/1250490683938521093

Confederate Flags <-- ? --> Michigan

Something something ... cultural heritage ... something something

You misspelled economic anxiety.

One reason i'm very optimistic for the nationalist movement this decade is that very soon you will have both economic anxiety and demographic anxiety plaguing the WWC. Take those two things and BOOM you have a movement.

[Grassroots]

A friend of mine told me that even a vaccine won't be very helpful, since the virus is likely to mutate and render such a vaccine useless. We will be socially distancing for many years to come.

This virus isn't mutating fast at all, and the fact that this virus is slowly mutating might if anything make it much easier to make a vaccine.

The Chinese government ruined the global economy for decades, and we need to put crippling sanctions on their economy yesterday.

Ignoring the obvious topic change, I don't think it will be decades. Recession didn't "ruin" our economy for long. However, I am out for blood, and I am very much looking forward to President Hawley putting the heads of China and the WHO on spikes. America First!

[Grassroots]

Remember when Andrew Cuomo was screaming about how he needs 40k ventilators? (“You pick the 26,000 who are going to die”)

Turns out NY didn’t anything near that, just as Trump said. Now, Cuomo and company are giving away ventilators cause they got too much

http://www.foxnews.com/us/cuomo-says-new-york-giving-away-some-ventilators-coronavirus-outbreak-stabilized-there.amp

Why doesn’t anyone call out Cuomo on his overdramatic nonsense? He overdramatized to grab headlines and make himself look good.

What exactly are you trying to accomplish by bragging about lower than expected hospitalizations?

[Grassroots]

Different, recent trial results on a clinical trial of chloroquine diphosphate.

The high dose CQ arm presented more QTc>500ms (25%), and a trend toward higher lethality (17%) than the lower dosage. Fatality rate was 13.5% (95%CI=6.9-23.0%), overlapping with the CI of historical data from similar patients not using CQ (95%CI=14.5-19.2%). In 14 patients with paired samples, respiratory secretion at day 4 was negative in only one patient. Interpretation Preliminary findings suggest that the higher CQ dosage (10-day regimen) should not be recommended for COVID-19 treatment because of its potential safety hazards.

French study finds hydroxychloroquine doesn't help patients with coronavirus.

A drug that's been touted by President Donald Trump as a "game changer" didn't help hospitalized patients with coronavirus and was associated with heart complications, according to a new study.

"This provides evidence that hydroxychloroquine does not apparently treat patients with Covid 19," said Dr. Paul Offit, an infectious disease specialist at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. "Even worse, there were side effects caused by the drug -- heart toxicities that required it be discontinued."

Trump has said that hydroxychloroquine shows "tremendous promise" and has made it sound like the drug is harmless. "I think it's going to be great," Trump said at a White House briefing on March 19.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/new-french-study-hydroxychloroquine/index.html

Damn it. What about other drugs, I remember one Japanese drug that is also being tested?

We need something if we want to go back to how it was before.

Its just one study, plus there are a ton of other treatments that have shown promising. We will have Multiple treatments by summer.

A lot of this talk about "social distancing until 2022" is frankly dumb. First of all, we aren't going to be enacting social distancing guidelines while the initial crisis is over in two months, summer will not need social distancing. The general consensus is that contact tracing will be used so that social distancing doesn't have to be. There may be occasional flare ups in local areas, and the gov could just impose stay at home orders on those local areas until the threat subsides there. This isn't even mentioning the vaccine, in which the race for it appears to be going well, and one is expected to come out in spring 2021 if not before then.

[Grassroots]

Different, recent trial results on a clinical trial of chloroquine diphosphate.

The high dose CQ arm presented more QTc>500ms (25%), and a trend toward higher lethality (17%) than the lower dosage. Fatality rate was 13.5% (95%CI=6.9-23.0%), overlapping with the CI of historical data from similar patients not using CQ (95%CI=14.5-19.2%). In 14 patients with paired samples, respiratory secretion at day 4 was negative in only one patient. Interpretation Preliminary findings suggest that the higher CQ dosage (10-day regimen) should not be recommended for COVID-19 treatment because of its potential safety hazards.

French study finds hydroxychloroquine doesn't help patients with coronavirus.

A drug that's been touted by President Donald Trump as a "game changer" didn't help hospitalized patients with coronavirus and was associated with heart complications, according to a new study.

"This provides evidence that hydroxychloroquine does not apparently treat patients with Covid 19," said Dr. Paul Offit, an infectious disease specialist at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. "Even worse, there were side effects caused by the drug -- heart toxicities that required it be discontinued."

Trump has said that hydroxychloroquine shows "tremendous promise" and has made it sound like the drug is harmless. "I think it's going to be great," Trump said at a White House briefing on March 19.

https://us.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/new-french-study-hydroxychloroquine/index.html

Damn it. What about other drugs, I remember one Japanese drug that is also being tested?

We need something if we want to go back to how it was before.

Its just one study, plus there are a ton of other treatments that have shown promising. We will have Multiple treatments by summer.

A lot of this talk about "social distancing until 2022" is frankly dumb. First of all, we aren't going to be enacting social distancing guidelines while the initial crisis is over in two months, summer will not need social distancing. The general consensus is that contact tracing will be used so that social distancing doesn't have to be. There may be occasional flare ups in local areas, and the gov could just impose stay at home orders on those local areas until the threat subsides there. This isn't even mentioning the vaccine, in which the race for it appears to be going well, and one is expected to come out in spring 2021 if not before then.

Also, https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-elderly-hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-treatment-texas-city/287-7383185c-940c-4cb2-82ea-c4a5ffad3ffb

This is a positive test for hydroxc with no side effects

[Grassroots]

Really discouraging numbers today across the board.  Already a new daily record number of deaths in the US, and a big jump in the number of cases compared to the last several days.  Also somehow a record number of new deaths in France after what had seemed like a leveling off.  No significant decrease in Italy in deaths over the last two weeks.  It seems like the only major nation showing a steady trend in the right direction is Spain (and maybe Iran).

I'm still thinking it's more weekend delay. There was a really bad spike of deaths in Connecticut today, while the rest of the country is stabilizing.

The sudden bump in some state's death totals is due to states dumping all the 'probable' COVID deaths at once. First it was NY yesterday and now CT. Expect to see death tolls increase as more states do this.

[Grassroots]

Washington State's latest update has only 89 new cases over 24 hours. That's down from over 600 per day at our peak.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1250573126884360193

89 cases per day is fine for reopening the economy and schools. The west coast pact should release the measures on Washington and see how things go.

[Grassroots]

As far as projections go, it is one thing to look at the numbers overall for the US and perhaps things could get better overall in the next month or two.

It is another thing to look at it state by state. Certain states are going to peak early than others, and I think that the worst states look like they will see a decline eventually. It is the states with few cases that could be the ones that will peak much later than the other ones.

All this depends on what people do and how willing they are to stay home and stay the course.
It isn't going to be easy.

They are already getting better, and multiple states have not only peaked out but have gone to Spain levels of recovery.

[Grassroots]

Is the recent spike of cases just the underreported stuff or is there a genuine surge going on?

Unreported cases being dumped at once.

I'm starting to think this virus might actually be seasonal. (We have had some unusual drops in new cases lately if you don't count the 3,778 old cases from New York.)

In the south this is particularly true. Florida has been rather ok despite DeSantis's negligence, and Louisiana has been freefalling in new cases.

[Grassroots]

Washington State's latest update has only 89 new cases over 24 hours. That's down from over 600 per day at our peak.

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1250573126884360193

89 cases per day is fine for reopening the economy and schools. The west coast pact should release the measures on Washington and see how things go.

After they have already announced schools are closed for the academic year?

Yes.

[Grassroots]

Noticed something interesting about Italy's numbers.

New cases per day in Italy is going downward, but it's doing so in an interesting pattern. It's going downward like a staircase, not like a slope. I'm unsure if this pattern is due to reporting flaws as it goes downward, or if the cases are actually fluctuating while overall decreasing. Take a look for yourself:

[Grassroots]

Noticed something interesting about Italy's numbers.

New cases per day in Italy is going downward, but it's doing so in an interesting pattern. It's going downward like a staircase, not like a slope. I'm unsure if this pattern is due to reporting flaws as it goes downward, or if the cases are actually fluctuating while overall decreasing. Take a look for yourself:

Saturday is higher than Sunday or Monday or Tuesday for the past several weeks.

So you are saying what exactly?

[Grassroots]

April 15
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 6 states
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 25 states
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 4 states
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states

I'll be posting this every 3/4 days with new numbers.

[Grassroots]

April 15
Grassr00ts State Progress map
Based on state trend in new cases per day

-Cases strongly decreasing (50% green) 6 states
-Cases starting to decrease (30% green) 13 states
-Cases peaking out (30% yellow) 25 states
-Cases increasing but slowing (30% red) 4 states
-Cases increasing badly (50% red) 2 states

I'll be posting this every 3/4 days with new numbers.

You can also clearly point out the bad governors from the good ones on this map.

[Grassroots]

Dr Oz has always been a quack and this has just solidified it

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1250807416872189952

I want to go back to school so whatever.

[Grassroots]

Important data points here:

Sweeping testing of the entire crew of the coronavirus-stricken U.S. aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt may have revealed a clue about the pandemic: The majority of the positive cases so far are among sailors who are asymptomatic, officials say.
...
The Navy’s testing of the entire 4,800-member crew of the aircraft carrier - which is about 94% complete - was an extraordinary move in a headline-grabbing case that has already led to the firing of the carrier’s captain and the resignation of the Navy’s top civilian official.

Roughly 60 percent of the over 600 sailors who tested positive so far have not shown symptoms of COVID-19, the potentially lethal respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, the Navy says. The service did not speculate about how many might later develop symptoms or remain asymptomatic.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-military-sympt-idUSKCN21Y2GB

this is around the same % that we got in the italian town of Vo'

I'm not sure if the insane asymptomatic rate on this thing is a good or bad thing. On one hand it's good because it means the mortality rate is extremely inflated and it's probably actually more like the flu than SARS in regards to danger, on the other hand it makes the virus harder to control and record.

[Grassroots]

Guys, remember when jimrtex was a respected and knowledgeable poster who mostly focused on the nuts and bolts of redistricting? Me too.

He isn't now?

[Grassroots]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

Just read through the whole thing, this is extremely good looking. Very competent, and I am extremely pleased that this is a state by state plan, not a federal one.

[Grassroots]

White House just released its guidelines for "Opening Up America Again":

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/politics/read-guidelines-for-opening-america/index.html

Skimming through that.....it's God awful

How?

[Grassroots]

I think I'm gonna be sick. Running these numbers takes its toll when days like these happen. 

I thought it went up because they started counting old deaths.

It is. This is a result of the rest of the states doing it. I predicted this.

[Grassroots]

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Δ Change: ↑10.85% | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Δ Change: ↑145.29% | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

Wow, just shy of our all time cases high. At best we're plateauing at a high level.

Quote from: Arch on April 16, 2020, 08:03:03 PM

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Δ Change: ↑10.85% | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Δ Change: ↑145.29% | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

Wow, just shy of our all time cases high. At best we're plateauing at a high level.[/list]

Yes, just about.

This is a dumping of a pileup of probable cases, in which the backlog went for weeks.[/list]

[Grassroots]

Alot of people are saying countries are having a slower than expected recovery but you have to realize we are in the middle of freaking April lmao.