Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

I think it's going to be the Driftless area counties that will be decisive.

[Bidenworth2020]

Wow!

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.

Perhaps yeah. Still feeling on edge though.

nah, this is done. We literally have 23% out in dane vs. the entire northern half of the state.

I hope your right

why? the implication is that hagedorn has won

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

[LimoLiberal]

Wow!

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.

If most of WOW is in, there's no way that Hagedorn is favored, despite typical Atlas bedwetting. This is closer than expected, and Hagedorn could still pull it off, but he'll need huge numbers from the rurals, and for the remaining Madison vote to be less friendly to Neubauer.

He's getting massive numbers from the Northern WI rurals. And Dane is 85% in. Additional trolling deleted.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Is the city of Milwaukee still counting absentee votes in that weird way where they came in late for Evers outside of the precinct percentage?

[Dr. Arch]

Panicking is Atlas' number 1 skill.

Well, to be fair the race is very close! We don't know if she's favored yet. I hope you're right.

A losing left candidate gets < 75 in Dane. We should be fine.

[Gass3268]

I think it's gonna come down to the Driftless area, Neubauer is over performing there a bit. While she's under performing in the Southeast. Looks like a typical spring election in Wisconsin.

[Bidenworth2020]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

hagedorn is way overperforming everywhere though.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1113258029439377408

https://twitter.com/joeminocqua/status/1113258344758882305

[Politician]

Neubauer is winning in Vernon County (Trump +5 WWC county)

[LimoLiberal]

Neubauer is winning in Vernon County (Trump +5 WWC county)

Senator Feingold won it in 2016.

[Sestak]

Neubauer only up 3.5 with only 50% in. Ugh.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alright! I am done celebrating the PA Dem win in Pittsburgh tonight.

My hot take: this is looking like a narrow Neubauer win.

[Gass3268]

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean

Marathon - Hagedorn
Menominee -  Hagedorn, too little to matter
La Crosse - Neubauer
Outagamie - Hagedorn, but the margin is going to be important

[Dr. Arch]

Panicking is Atlas' number 1 skill.

Well, to be fair the race is very close! We don't know if she's favored yet. I hope you're right.

A losing left candidate gets < 75 in Dane. We should be fine.

Well that would be good and dandy if Milwaukee was pulling its weight. It decidedly isn't.

We'll see.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

WISCONSIN IS BECOMING A GOP STATE!A

[Politician]

Neubauer only up 3.5 with only 50% in. Ugh.

How much was Evers up by at this point?

[Scottholes 2.0]

Dunn and La Crosse Counties (home to college towns) still need to report.

[Nyvin]

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean.

The rural surge for Hagdorn is really surprising me tbh.

La Crosse and Menominee will help Neubauer,  the others Hagedorn

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

hagedorn is way overperforming everywhere though.

More like Screnock underperformed. He lost by eight points. It's definitely possible for Hagedorn to overperform and come short especially considering turnout in Dane is up.

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean

Outagamie and Marathon will be some R vote sinks, La Crosse will partially offset that, Menominee will be negligible.

[Gass3268]

Neubauer gained on Evers margin in St. Criox.

[lfromnj]

I think D's are slightly favored as even if the rest of the state is rural its still very white and white liberals still exist in rural areas and are more apt to turn out for a "non partisan" supreme court race than some inner city black man in Milwaukee.

[Bidenworth2020]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

hagedorn is way overperforming everywhere though.

More like Screnock underperformed. He lost by eight points. It's definitely possible for Hagedorn to overperform and come short especially considering turnout in Dane is up.

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean

Outagamie and Marathon will be some R vote sinks, La Crosse will partially offset that, Menominee will be negligible.

I am comparing to trump/walker

[libertpaulian]

Good or bad that Neubauer is underperforming Evers in WOW?

Seems like Hagedorn is getting near-normal GOP levels in that region.

[LimoLiberal]

Neubauer gained on Evers margin in St. Criox.

She's not doing terribly in W/SW WI, however I still believe she is gonna lose however.