Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[libertpaulian]

Walker can withstand the Democratic wave, since Milwaukee and Madison don't have many Latinos as other states might have. That's a reason why, Trump did so well in MI, PA and WI. But more WWC in WI.

100x yep. 2018 DNC (and supporting arms) has no clue how to win states outside the coastal bubbles.

If the Dems run on an old school labor message, they have a chance of ousting Walker.  If they run a boilerplate campaign that sounds like something the national party would create, Walker will win again.

[libertpaulian]

Walker can withstand the Democratic wave, since Milwaukee and Madison don't have many Latinos as other states might have. That's a reason why, Trump did so well in MI, PA and WI. But more WWC in WI.

100x yep. 2018 DNC (and supporting arms) has no clue how to win states outside the coastal bubbles.

If the Dems run on an old school labor message, they have a chance of ousting Walker.  If they run a boilerplate campaign that sounds like something the national party would create, Walker will win again.

Just saying Mills and Tony Evers arent the charismatic candidate like Whitmer and Grisham are.

It's the Rust Belt.  You don't need charismatic and sexy to win.

Mark Dayton, Terry Branstad, Pat Quinn, Ted Strickland, and Jennifer Granholm are prime examples of that.

[libertpaulian]

Mitchell hitting Milwaukee-area airwaves hard. Not sure whether the final push will be enough to push him past the others, but this race is going to be close. My guess is that Evers wins by a small margin, with Mitchell the runner-up. It all depends on whether Milwaukee flexes some of its muscle, which seems doubtful if one looks at the 2016 general results as well as this spring's election turnout (relative to the rest of the state).

My opinion of the MKE area, outside of politics (although, as we can see, the city's residents have gone out of their way to show that they don't really care all that much), is overall very poor. So far, it's been the most disappointing city I've visited.

Milwaukee's problem is that 1) it tries to play second-fiddle to Chicago instead of trying to develop its own niche and identity, and 2) it's followed the same patterns and traits of every post-industrial Midwestern city.

[libertpaulian]

Might as well post this here:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1029550432639770624

Geez, aren't you a month late, eh there, Crystal Ball?

[libertpaulian]

Agreed on this being a tossup race. The interesting part about this race is that it's the first in Wisconsin since 2006 with both the Governor and Senator on the ballot; in 2006, incumbent Dem Senator Kohl won re-election by a landslide (38 pts) while incumbent Dem Governor Doyle won his race by seven points.

Unlike 2006, I severely doubt there will be many Baldwin-Walker voters, and with polls consistently showing Baldwin with healthy leads over Vukmir, I think the race is slowly swaying in Evers's favor. Had Nicholson won the GOP primary, people might've associated the WI Republican ticket with an anti-establishment Trumpist agenda (which would've excited more conservative-leaning voters), but Vukmir screams cold establishment and won't excite voters in the state at all. Republicans will vote for Walker, but with this being his fourth election, there are bound to be many past voters who aren't too excited to vote for him a fourth time.

How much do you think Baldwin would have to win by to drag Evers over the finish line?  We're talking barely dragging Evers...not by the 5-10 point average that Evers seems to have in these polls.

[libertpaulian]

A tie after all the ordeals Walker had faced in his two terms? He's cruising to the end, as the ad campaigns will sink Evers. Likely R

lol, you can stop with the troll job now.

[libertpaulian]

A tie after all the ordeals Walker had faced in his two terms? He's cruising to the end, as the ad campaigns will sink Evers. Likely R

lol, you can stop with the troll job now.

After all the complacent Dems in this forum assuming that a silly Supreme Court race means anything in the grand scheme of things? Perhaps, they are the trolls, not me. Fact of the matter is, Dems in this state committed seppuku by only caring about the ghettoes of Milwaukee and students in Madison.

Yeah, that's why Dems have been improving in the rural and small town areas for the state supreme court and special elections, right?

[libertpaulian]

OK, serious autopsy time: How can Dems recover their lost appeal in the Midwest, specifically Wisconsin? Because, the current Nancy Pelosi/DWS/Country Club strategy ain't working...and the results are devastating with Wisconsin workers being subjected to No-Right-to-Bargain.

2016 was a Realignment Election and Democrats still have failed to come to terms with that. Basically from 2016 onwards the upper Midwest will be available for R's the same way VA, NC, GA will be available for D's.

A 0.5 point win is not a "realignment"

Yeah, realigners don't tend to lose the popular vote.

[libertpaulian]

A tie after all the ordeals Walker had faced in his two terms? He's cruising to the end, as the ad campaigns will sink Evers. Likely R

lol, you can stop with the troll job now.

After all the complacent Dems in this forum assuming that a silly Supreme Court race means anything in the grand scheme of things? Perhaps, they are the trolls, not me. Fact of the matter is, Dems in this state committed seppuku by only caring about the ghettoes of Milwaukee and students in Madison.

Yeah, that's why Dems have been improving in the rural and small town areas for the state supreme court and special elections, right?

Don't feed the concern troll. He'd argue that his wet dream Scotty is safe even if he were down by 10 in every poll. It's been kinda funny seeing LimoLiberal post 4 or 5 times in the other Wisconsin thread, crying for attention, while no one is responding to him. Let's keep it that way, since LimoLiberal and hofoid are essentially the same person.

I wouldn't be surprised if hoifoid was Limo's sock puppet (or vice versa).

[libertpaulian]

Walker just found his new campaign prop

It's his Hurricane Sandy moment. Evers is DOA at this point.

This trolling isn't even funny anymore.

It could be his Hurricane Matthew moment: Enough to bolster him in the polls a bit but not enough to save him in the end.

[libertpaulian]

What's with everyone's boner for RINO Tom in every thread?!

[libertpaulian]

When your only option is to go negative, you're losing.

[libertpaulian]

Mud (even untrue) tends to stick when repeated enough times, though. Have we forgotten Swift Boat?

Your obsession with Wisconsin is even more chronic than MT Treasurer's obsession with New Hampshire...and I thought no obsession could get more chronic than that!  At least MT can concede NH is winnable for the GOP at times.

[libertpaulian]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

Your one-liners are getting old.  Come up with REAL arguments, please.

[libertpaulian]

lol, all Walker has ever "survived" are two GOP wave years and a low-turnout recall

? The recall wasn't low turnout...

2.5K votes cast compared to 3.1K in the Presidential race just a few months later. And basically comparable to the 2.4K cast in 2014, one of the lowest-turnout midterms in history.

Well yeah, of course it was never going to match or exceed the presidential race. But despite being a random special election in June it still exceeded turnout in 2010 and 2014, which was pretty damn impressive. In fact, it was the highest turnout ever for a Wisconsin gubernatorial race.

Leave it to Walker to inspire tons of conservative voters to come to the polls for him. Imagine what he can do in 2018.

Your one-liners are getting old.  Come up with REAL arguments, please.

I literally was agreeing with IceSpear, yet I get the brunt of the hate.

You have yet to prove to us why Walker will be able to recreate the Tea Party Coalition successfully when anti-Trump sentiment is strong nationwide, including in Trump's upset states in the Upper Midwest.

[libertpaulian]

Evers +4.  hofoid will then come in to talk about Evers' monumental decline and collapse, and how Bart O'Kavanaugh's uber-super-duper-mega-gigacoattails will drag all the endangered GOP governor incumbents, especially Walker, over the finish line.  Hell, Kavanaugh may even send a proxy to help out Walker!  There'll also be a likely schpiel about how Menendez and Blackburn are more likely to lose than Walker.

[libertpaulian]

My prediction: The final margin is the 2010 result, but with the parties reversed. 

[libertpaulian]

I don't get the Super Nintendo Evers pun

He's the state superintendent of education.

[libertpaulian]

Hope WI doenst make their version of  getting rid of Stephen Harper mistake

If Evers was as handsome as Trudeau he would probably be an absolute lock to win.

If Tony Evers was as hot as James Smith, he'd be leading by 18%.

[libertpaulian]

This is notable:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1052928421771137024

If anything, DJT will be a drag on Walker (who never needed him and who relies on WOW votes). Smart move from the GOP.

OK, looks like you're back to the bargaining stage of denial...

[libertpaulian]

I'm predicting a tie to be safe.

[libertpaulian]

I'm sticking with a tie as my prediction.

I'm being pessimistic and predicting Walker +1.

I'm predicting the same. There seems to be no change from the fundamentals from then till today.

Uhhhh, no.  Things have improved for Dems in the past couple weeks.

[libertpaulian]

Were they using 2014 demographics again?

[libertpaulian]

This poll had Walker at +7 int 2014.   Which was slightly better then he did.

SHHHHHHHHHHHH, don't tell hofoid.

[libertpaulian]

Holy crap, Evers got Dallet-like margins out of Dane alone.