Afghan government collapse.

[Third Party]

As a taxpayer, I am totally sick of paying for this incredibly expensive quagmire. When you add in interest payments, the Afghan War has costed around $2 trillion. This country could have ended homelessness and set up long-term bases on the moon and Mars with that kind of money! Getting the hell out as fast as possible is the only smart, sensible thing to do.

I noticed that some people here are in panic about what grim fate will befall the Afghan women. Honestly, their fate is none of our business. However, if you guys who claim to care so strongly about it really do not want to see the Taliban capture Kabul, why don't you actually go volunteer to fight against them? Kabul is absolutely desperate right now, they will take anyone crazy enough to come fight for them. But you better hurry, the Taliban is closing in, fast.

[Benjamin Frank]

I suspect that the Taliban are interested in retaining at least some ‘intellectual resources’, given that a Taliban ruled Afghanistan will still require doctors, engineers, jurists, finance people etc etc. On the other hand, the problem faced by most Western countries at the moment is arguably an overabundance of ‘intellectual resources’, ie graduates who cannot find work commensurate to the qualifications that they have received. Rather than exacerbating this problem (in the long term) by taking in the intellectual cast offs of Afghanistan, a better policy would be to redirect currently un and underemployed domestic graduates into graduate fields (medicine, engineering et al) where the demand cannot currently be met purely from domestic sources.

I don't think you realize but the Taliban are on living like it's the middle ages. They don't need doctor's, already have their religious scholars to serve as jurist nor do they care much if the infrastructure falls into despair. Their theocratic views reject any mordernization they aren't forced to accept by nesseciaty like mobile phones or weapons.

I mean, there were doctors in the Middle Ages (obviously nothing like today but hey ho). But that aside, even under the original incarnation of the Taliban regime doctors continued to practice and I would expect no less today. There is no doubt that opportunities for women will be curtailed in a Taliban dominated Afghanistan; nonetheless, the Taliban needs (and clearly has the support of at least some) educated people in order to produce some sort of workable regime. There are plenty of examples of countries run by Islamic fundamentalists that nonetheless churn out huge numbers of doctors, lawyers, engineers etcetera, and there’s no reason to expect that a stable (and this is the key factor), theocratic Afghanistan would be any different.

Nobody is obligated to support a dictatorship. If you can get out, do so.  

The Taliban are also brutal medieval dictators, even the Saudi and Iranian governments aren't that bad.

[Benjamin Frank]

We'll see what happens:
https://globalnews.ca/video/8111090/canada-to-accept-more-than-20000-afghan-refugees
Canada to accept more than 20,000 Afghan refugees

[lfromnj]

Does anyone think there's a small chance its a feinted retreat?

The collapse is way too fast and arguably the best way to take out an insurgency is to group them up?

[Benjamin Frank]

Does anyone think there's a small chance its a feinted retreat?

The collapse is way too fast and arguably the best way to take out an insurgency is to group them up?

I thought of that.  Those things happen in fantasy films.

[_.]

Anyone who thinks this wasn't inevitable is kidding themselves honestly. This was going to happen no matter when the U.S. pulled out.

In fact, it might even have happened without a pullout. The U.S. was already working overtime trying to exaggerate their holdings, and the Taliban was gaining for a few years before 2021.

The Taliban had too much popular support, the central government is too incompetent, pedophilic, corrupt, and never held much rural land for long (and Afghanistan is a majority rural country). Nation-building would've been far, far too expensive.

Time for the infighting to start after Kabul falls

I'm just glad American tax money isn't wasted anymore. Thank you Biden and Trump for pulling out.


In other news, some truly dire statistics about Afghanistan are about to be made public (or maybe all statistics will simply stop).

For the last twenty years, nearly all development indicators coming out of Afghanistan have been based on surveys occurring solely within the most urban, developed parts of Afghanistan, as surveyors wouldn't go into rural Taliban-controlled territory. In many cases, no adjustments were being made to account for the rural non-surveyed provinces. This is the main reason Afghanistan's development indicators look like they're improving so much.

It's like taking education, development, and health data of Massachusetts and making it stand as data for the entire United States.

Infant mortality, fertility, and illiteracy are all much higher than what the projections show,  while the median age and life expectancy are much lower.

The same thing happened in FATA after it was integrated into KPK on the Pakistani side of the Durand line.

Does anyone think there's a small chance its a feinted retreat?

The collapse is way too fast and arguably the best way to take out an insurgency is to group them up?

Unfortunately no.

The Afghan army has zero morale and is made up primarily of drug addicts and opportunists at this point. This is what's making it so easy for the Taliban to sweep the land (on top of their already existing connections with local governmental figures and their vast sway among the rural areas, which hold most of the country's population).

They were always waiting in the shadows, ready to pounce, and at this point, all Afghan soldiers want to do is get out with their lives, even if it means living under the Taliban.

[omar04]

It's a pretty discomforting suggestion to say that we should save the best and brightest as if there is a hierarchy of humanity worthy of being saved based on intelligence.

The emphasis on the financial costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars for the US is in the same thread. Years of fighting is reduced to the costs and lives the superpower on the other side of the world incurred.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Has there ever been any serious attempt to quantify this?

Have just seen somewhere else an equally serious claim that only about 10% of the population are strong supporters, and that what is happening is more akin to a military coup

[Cassius]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Has there ever been any serious attempt to quantify this?

Have just seen somewhere else an equally serious claim that only about 10% of the population are strong supporters, and that what is happening is more akin to a military coup

The latter is probably a more accurate assessment (although these things are impossible to quantify with anything like precise figures), but at this point it’s pretty clear that the Taliban enjoy more popular support than the ‘legitimate’ government in Kabul. As is always the case I suspect the majority of the population simply want to avoid trouble and if that means conceding to Taliban rule then they’ll concede to Taliban rule.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's a pretty discomforting suggestion to say that we should save the best and brightest as if there is a hierarchy of humanity worthy of being saved based on intelligence.

The emphasis on the financial costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars for the US is in the same thread. Years of fighting is reduced to the costs and lives the superpower on the other side of the world incurred.

I mean we spent something around 10x their GDP to occupy them. Well, Bush said he was against nation-building.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Has there ever been any serious attempt to quantify this?

Have just seen somewhere else an equally serious claim that only about 10% of the population are strong supporters, and that what is happening is more akin to a military coup

The latter is probably a more accurate assessment (although these things are impossible to quantify with anything like precise figures), but at this point it’s pretty clear that the Taliban enjoy more popular support than the ‘legitimate’ government in Kabul. As is always the case I suspect the majority of the population simply want to avoid trouble and if that means conceding to Taliban rule than they’ll concede to Taliban rule.

Yeah, there is much talk that the Taliban have "moderated" themselves this time round (making much more effort to win over non-Pashtuns than in the 90s, for instance) but it looks like we will see soon enough. They made themselves very unpopular very quickly when last in power.

[Silent Hunter]

At the end of the day, if the Taliban can keep the streets safe, the shops stocked and the lights on, many will tolerate the other stuff.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, part of their previous fiasco in charge is that they didn't do those things terribly well.

[Benjamin Frank]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Has there ever been any serious attempt to quantify this?

Have just seen somewhere else an equally serious claim that only about 10% of the population are strong supporters, and that what is happening is more akin to a military coup

I'd say it's that as well as a Pakistani colonial takeover.

[afleitch]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58205062

You have to feel for the youth, particularly the women who are busy burning documents and papers; anything that can be used against them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Like a lot of conventional wisdom about Afghanistan it is a view that is dependent on knowing very little about the place, on having never seriously talked to any Afghans and on certain assumptions that are frankly racist. They had a degree of popularity in Pashtun-majority regions in the middle 1990s as they presented an apparent alternative to the chaos of warlordism, but this faded very rapidly as the reality of what their rule meant became apparent. Wars are not exercises in democracy and the Taliban controlling this or that city or district does not mean that locals like them. What is true is that the Ghani 'government' is unpopular and lacks credibility particularly in those parts of the country most naturally hostile to the Taliban. Ghani's poor reputation amongst the smaller ethnic groups has had catastrophic consequences.

[Blair]

It's been briefed (by the MOD obviously) that the UK wanted a multi-lateral coalition to remain but couldn't convince the other NATO powers.

I'd take it with a pinch of salt & frankly I doubt the UK Military would have the capacity to do much other than guard Kabul.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Like a lot of conventional wisdom about Afghanistan it is a view that is dependent on knowing very little about the place, on having never seriously talked to any Afghans and on certain assumptions that are frankly racist. They had a degree of popularity in Pashtun-majority regions in the middle 1990s as they presented an apparent alternative to the chaos of warlordism, but this faded very rapidly as the reality of what their rule meant became apparent. Wars are not exercises in democracy and the Taliban controlling this or that city or district does not mean that locals like them. What is true is that the Ghani 'government' is unpopular and lacks credibility particularly in those parts of the country most naturally hostile to the Taliban. Ghani's poor reputation amongst the smaller ethnic groups has had catastrophic consequences.

Makes you wonder how things would have been different if Abdullah Abdullah had won the "election" (or if Ahmed Shah Masood hadn't been offed before 9/11).

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426517044149764104

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Has there ever been any serious attempt to quantify this?

Have just seen somewhere else an equally serious claim that only about 10% of the population are strong supporters, and that what is happening is more akin to a military coup

I'd say it's that as well as a Pakistani colonial takeover.

The issue is, even though Pakistan is not trusted by the Afghans, the fact they are Muslim and not far away infidels is pretty important. If the Afghan government was perpetually dependent on a non-Muslim power it was always going to seem alien, especially to the sort of person who becomes inspired to be a soldier.

[_.]

The worst affect of this in America is that it's going to make the neocon movement popular again, using ever more tax money to fuel the military-industrial complex and simply delay the inevitable.

[DabbingSanta]

Should have never gone in the first place.

[Zinneke]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

Like a lot of conventional wisdom about Afghanistan it is a view that is dependent on knowing very little about the place, on having never seriously talked to any Afghans and on certain assumptions that are frankly racist.

Or you can add War Nerd types paid to the hilt by Russian intelligence to propagate the polar opposite anything the similarly deluded Pentagon want us to believe.

I honestly think those who tow such lines are often just arguing out of bad faith or ulterior motives rather than pig ignorance, which actually has made it more dangerous a rhetoric.

[All Along The Watchtower]

if Ahmed Shah Masood hadn't been offed before 9/11

^^Underrated as a tragedy for the country imo

[All Along The Watchtower]

Lots of claims above that the Taliban enjoy "massive" public support in Afghanistan.

It’s 1932, and many Western observers claim that Ibn Saud and their Wahhabi shock troops enjoy “massive” public support across the Arabian Peninsula.