2023 UK Local Elections

[Blair]

Speaking of Liverpool, a bit of unpleasantness in Garston.

(Cllr Gorst was elected as a Labour councillor in 2019, but is now standing for the Liverpool Community Independents, who describe themselves as "a new group of independent socialists".)

Apparently some LibDems aren't happy at this expression of unhappiness.

(basically, they think he deserves it and then some)

It is the type of hard hitting campaigning a lot of them use to and still do practice.

An interesting aside is the there's essentially (barring some 2019 flare ups) been an 8 year truce between Labour & the Lib Dems- they use to run very vicious campaigns against each other.

[JimJamUK]

Another set of Problem Administrations are those where there's a rag-tag-and-bobtail coalition, often in place because the party that usually has a majority has lost it. Most end up being total trainwrecks within months for obvious reasons.

Are you suggesting that a Labour-UKIP-Lib Dem coalition with Green and independent confidence and supply may not go swimmingly?

[JimJamUK]

But more seriously, it will be interesting to see the impact of the freak 2019 changes of control next month. The implosion of the 2 major parties, especially the Conservatives, led to some rag tag coalitions, and even outright majority switches (keep an eye on Uttlesford which went overwhelmingly Residents and has subsequently lost planning powers due to their NIMBYism). Some of these will prove popular and once again benefit from Conservative woes, a few others may prove to be the rare Conservatives gains.

[Blair]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

[Blair]

There's something about Labour politics in the North-East isn't there?

[Oryxslayer]

But more seriously, it will be interesting to see the impact of the freak 2019 changes of control next month. The implosion of the 2 major parties, especially the Conservatives, led to some rag tag coalitions, and even outright majority switches (keep an eye on Uttlesford which went overwhelmingly Residents and has subsequently lost planning powers due to their NIMBYism). Some of these will prove popular and once again benefit from Conservative woes, a few others may prove to be the rare Conservatives gains.

One of the more peculiar cases of this is South Derbyshire. Tories win a majority in 2019, like they have had for about a decade. Then they lose that majority to a significant portion of their class becoming independents, who proceeded to put Labour in control from 2021 onwards. Like in seemingly most cases of defections at the turbulent local level you still stay somewhat loyal to your former party and don't challenge their control until new elections create a new reality,  a new councilor grouping gives order to the disorganized,  something like that. But this seems to have been a pure flip which suggests more than bad feelings.

Now obviously Labour are hunting for gains here, but it will be interesting to see the behavior of their voters when it comes to those indies who are standing again.

 Also both major party leaders are standing down.

[JimJamUK]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The Labour Party might not even make up that much ground given their by-elections there, in stark contrast to neighbouring Middlesbrough.

[MaxQue]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The feud happened because former "Labour" MP Tom Blenkinsop pretty much used his influence and staff to have any councillor who he didn't like deselected.

He thankfully retired in 2017 (and probably would have defected to Boris later if he didn't).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's something about Labour politics in the North-East isn't there?

It's machine politics hilarity in most of it, not so very different to South Wales really but Teesside... now... um... that's special.

[CumbrianLefty]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The feud happened because former "Labour" MP Tom Blenkinsop pretty much used his influence and staff to have any councillor who he didn't like deselected.

He thankfully retired in 2017 (and probably would have defected to Boris later if he didn't).

Blenkinsop claims to be a committed Labour supporter again these days.

[MaxQue]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The feud happened because former "Labour" MP Tom Blenkinsop pretty much used his influence and staff to have any councillor who he didn't like deselected.

He thankfully retired in 2017 (and probably would have defected to Boris later if he didn't).

Blenkinsop claims to be a committed Labour supporter again these days.

And works for a business lobby that would gladly tear the Blair-era labour law progress.

[TheTide]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

People on Twitter asking whether or not there will be an exit poll. They are only conducted for general elections these days.

The results programmes having panels that contain the most surreally hackish people from the parties.

The 'big moment' of John Curtice revealing what the 'projected national vote share' is.

[Oryxslayer]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

Fortunately, this time around the first councils should be instructive rather than outliers. And this is because we are dealing with an environment where it's going to be Tory losses in all but a specific places, whereas the past few local elections have been good for Conservatives or close enough to tied that you can have large portions of the country recognizably trending in different directions. Labour flips the script.

Like one of the first councils to declare in 2022 was Bolton. That might take longer to count this time cause all seats are up because of redistricting, rather than 1/3, but it's still perhaps the most interesting council election this year. So many localist groups, incumbent conservatives, and Labour looking to push them all aside and take majority in a marginal area.

Then there's Sunderland where one can get a strong indicator of how well a council with a less-than-perfect reputation benefits from the polling - theoretically a sweep is possible but unlikely. The list of areas that have reported early in the past then continues to be filled with Labour target areas to varying degrees: Peterborough, Worcester, Amber Valley, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Reddich, Thurrock, Wirral, and Swindon - the place where National Labour launched their locals campaign cause a flip seems so easily in reach.

[MaxQue]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

Fortunately, this time around the first councils should be instructive rather than outliers. And this is because we are dealing with an environment where it's going to be Tory losses in all but a specific places, whereas the past few local elections have been good for Conservatives or close enough to tied that you can have large portions of the country recognizably trending in different directions. Labour flips the script.

Like one of the first councils to declare in 2022 was Bolton. That might take longer to count this time cause all seats are up because of redistricting, rather than 1/3, but it's still perhaps the most interesting council election this year. So many localist groups, incumbent conservatives, and Labour looking to push them all aside and take majority in a marginal area.

Then there's Sunderland where one can get a strong indicator of how well a council with a less-than-perfect reputation benefits from the polling - theoretically a sweep is possible but unlikely. The list of areas that have reported early in the past then continues to be filled with Labour target areas to varying degrees: Peterborough, Worcester, Amber Valley, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Reddich, Thurrock, Wirral, and Swindon - the place where National Labour launched their locals campaign cause a flip seems so easily in reach.

Amber Valley is also all-outs and won't count until Friday. Wirral and Swindon are also counting on Friday, this time.

[Oryxslayer]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

Fortunately, this time around the first councils should be instructive rather than outliers. And this is because we are dealing with an environment where it's going to be Tory losses in all but a specific places, whereas the past few local elections have been good for Conservatives or close enough to tied that you can have large portions of the country recognizably trending in different directions. Labour flips the script.

Like one of the first councils to declare in 2022 was Bolton. That might take longer to count this time cause all seats are up because of redistricting, rather than 1/3, but it's still perhaps the most interesting council election this year. So many localist groups, incumbent conservatives, and Labour looking to push them all aside and take majority in a marginal area.

Then there's Sunderland where one can get a strong indicator of how well a council with a less-than-perfect reputation benefits from the polling - theoretically a sweep is possible but unlikely. The list of areas that have reported early in the past then continues to be filled with Labour target areas to varying degrees: Peterborough, Worcester, Amber Valley, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Reddich, Thurrock, Wirral, and Swindon - the place where National Labour launched their locals campaign cause a flip seems so easily in reach.

Amber Valley is also all-outs and won't count until Friday. Wirral and Swindon are also counting on Friday, this time.

I knew I would have some incorrect listings there because my sources were what has happened previously, and there are plenty of reasons why the past may not be predicative in some cases. Like you noted, Wirral and Amber Valley are like Bolton stopped the thirds rule (in Wirral's case seemingly permanently) so that would take more time. To that end, do you have a timesheet of expected declarations already? Cause I do not.

[YL]

To that end, do you have a timesheet of expected declarations already? Cause I do not.

Here's the Press Association's effort

Bad luck, voters of Cheshire East and York, if you want the media to take any notice of how you vote this year.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like Tories in Norwich weren't very careful with their election leafleting.

[YL]

Looks like Tories in Norwich weren't very careful with their election leafleting.

Indeed, though on this occasion I suspect cock-up rather than conspiracy.

Actually one of the more surprising things to me about this story was that the Tories delivered a local election leaflet in Norwich.  I suppose the fact they hold the Norwich North constituency (based, AIUI, largely on strength in bits of the constituency which are outside the city boundaries) might mean they bother a little more there than in most places where they're very weak locally.  (I never get anything from them.)

[EastAnglianLefty]

Though it was in Town Close ward, which is in Norwich South and is one of the Tories' weakest wards in the city.

[CumbrianLefty]

It now appears the offending leaflet was overseen by Tory HQ, which makes things a bit murkier.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tories ought to take inspiration from the Lib Dems and stick to dodgy bar charts.

[YL]

Tories ought to take inspiration from the Lib Dems and stick to dodgy bar charts.

They do have form there:


(Source)

[Blair]

The coverage this year seems very weak- I haven’t even seen many fabled vox pops with pensioners and butchers (the only people out at 10am)!

I assume because none of the cities are up the media are struggling to work out what to actually report on- other than the stupid ‘1,000 Tory losses’ which gets written up even when they tell you in the next breath it’s part of the spin…

[YL]

The coverage this year seems very weak- I haven’t even seen many fabled vox pops with pensioners and butchers (the only people out at 10am)!

I assume because none of the cities are up the media are struggling to work out what to actually report on- other than the stupid ‘1,000 Tory losses’ which gets written up even when they tell you in the next breath it’s part of the spin…

Huh?  Most big English cities have elections, the main exceptions being London, Birmingham and Bristol.  Some are pretty dull TBH (Manchester, Nottingham) but there's plenty of potential for interest in many of the others.

I think a lot of the explanation is to do with how bad our media is, and how dead local journalism is in particular.

[Oryxslayer]

The coverage this year seems very weak- I haven’t even seen many fabled vox pops with pensioners and butchers (the only people out at 10am)!

I assume because none of the cities are up the media are struggling to work out what to actually report on- other than the stupid ‘1,000 Tory losses’ which gets written up even when they tell you in the next breath it’s part of the spin…

Huh?  Most big English cities have elections, the main exceptions being London, Birmingham and Bristol.  Some are pretty dull TBH (Manchester, Nottingham) but there's plenty of potential for interest in many of the others.

I think a lot of the explanation is to do with how bad our media is, and how dead local journalism is in particular.

I chalk it up to inevitability. Everyone, even the Tories, knows this will be bad for the Conservatives, just how bad is the only question. And since that outcome isn't in doubt probably anywhere in the country, just to varying degrees, there isn't any peculiarities or unique stories except maybe Mid Suffolk. Its just: "Here's a council the Tories should lose, will they though?" Those 1000 Tory losses number spun up to make the eventual outcome look better might still come to pass, but nowhere close to all of them will be going to Labour.


On another note, some poor soul of a polling firm tried to get a national poll for local elections:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1652001265021333504?s=20

The same polls GE numbers:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1651996271488512016?s=20