2023 UK Local Elections

[CumbrianLefty]

LibDems have made significant gains this year in council by-elections despite never polling that well. I suspect that gives us a fair indication how next May is likely to go for them.

Tories have never had a *really terrible* set of local elections since coming to power in 2010.

That could change fairly soon.

[CumbrianLefty]

All 7 UKIP councillors could lose their seats in 2023: http://www.opencouncildata.co.uk/councillors.php?p=352&y=2022

I would say that is more likely than not.

[CumbrianLefty]

All 7 UKIP councillors could lose their seats in 2023: http://www.opencouncildata.co.uk/councillors.php?p=352&y=2022

I would say that is more likely than not.

Interestingly there's a couple of ex UKIP councilors hanging around as independents, localist parties or Conservatives (Great Yarmouth being a good example of the latter).

Indeed - and even during their peak years, this sort of thing happened strikingly frequently.

[CumbrianLefty]

It struck me (and others with long political memories) as an attempt to rip off the 1990 template that was remarkably successful in turning an overall near rout into a moral victory. Though given that the sitting PM was ousted within 6 months even then, it didn't make that much difference longer term.

This time round, the fact that Labour won Westminster and Wandsworth meant it flopped pretty much from the off - taking Harrow and making gains in Croydon/Enfield doesn't have the same glamour.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though with the caveat that the Tories had an average result in 1991 and so were defending a lot of seats, whereas they had a terrible one in 2019 and shed a lot of seats they had no business losing.

Though going back four years, the Tories had a very good result in 2015 (on the same day as their GE win) so their result in 2019 looks worse because of that - let's not forget they roughly tied Labour on the "projected national vote" despite all those losses. They might win back a bit of ground against the various localist/Indy groups (though even then one probably shouldn't overstate it) but major losses to both Labour and the LibDems are very likely if polling remains anything like it is now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Take a close look at the Wirral results last year - Labour were *very* unlucky then in seats terms.

And in fact their recent Sheffield performances haven't been terrible either - again quite a few close results that they were on the wrong side of.

Bolton, yes totally agreed. Labour came back well in Sunderland last year though, so who knows.

(and re your last comment, I hear Labour are quite optimistic in Brighton - looks like next month will be really brutal for the Tories there and complete wipeout is not totally impossible)

[CumbrianLefty]

Dan Norris isn't standing this year surely?

[CumbrianLefty]

Mayoral elections often don't have that much read-though into council contests.

[CumbrianLefty]

I feel like virtually every local election I've followed has had the 'Tories will lose 1000 councillors’ briefed and then included in headlines.

Except that their losing 1000 seats isn't actually totally implausible, especially if both Labour and the LibDems do better in their target areas (as happened to a fair degree last year)

Not saying it will happen, of course - but if Tories really are as complacent as the latest client hacks briefings suggest (apparently Sunak hopes to make net gains FFS!) don't rule it out either.

[CumbrianLefty]

I commented on the other U.K. page but it seems very much like moving around armies than don’t exist when both parties talk about local councils- we have at least 3(?) who are bankrupt and several others that would be classed as failed states if they were countries.

Yes, local government in the form that we all grew up knowing simply doesn't exist now. There used to be such things as popular local administrations - imagine that now!

Amazingly, there are still a few to be found here and there.

[CumbrianLefty]

At the moment, maybe hard to beat Plymouth which has descended into chaos after some especially vicious internal Tory warfare.

[CumbrianLefty]

At the moment, maybe hard to beat Plymouth which has descended into chaos after some especially vicious internal Tory warfare.

Also trees. Cause it's always trees when the council is collapsing.  

Also on the wider point, liverpool are still under oversight from the appointed managers. Heck,  the new ward map that's going to be used this year was imposed by them,  and since it's basically all SMDs and 2MDs things could get interesting if voters want a change from local labour.

Most people still seem to be expecting a Labour majority, though. This is one place where memories of the LibDem coalition years are likely to last longer than average - and thus a drag on their support.

[CumbrianLefty]

Speaking of Liverpool, a bit of unpleasantness in Garston.

(Cllr Gorst was elected as a Labour councillor in 2019, but is now standing for the Liverpool Community Independents, who describe themselves as "a new group of independent socialists".)

Apparently some LibDems aren't happy at this expression of unhappiness.

(basically, they think he deserves it and then some)

[CumbrianLefty]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The feud happened because former "Labour" MP Tom Blenkinsop pretty much used his influence and staff to have any councillor who he didn't like deselected.

He thankfully retired in 2017 (and probably would have defected to Boris later if he didn't).

Blenkinsop claims to be a committed Labour supporter again these days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looks like Tories in Norwich weren't very careful with their election leafleting.

[CumbrianLefty]

It now appears the offending leaflet was overseen by Tory HQ, which makes things a bit murkier.

[CumbrianLefty]

I said in another thread that the fact they are now starting to talk about *2000* losses suggests that around half that is now a genuine possibility - though I will still believe it when I see it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Briefing game about these elections from all sides reaching genuinely silly proportions now (this has been aided by an Electoral Calculus "prediction" that verges on actual ludicrousness)

[CumbrianLefty]

There will likely be a big rush of results around lunchtime/early afternoon on Friday.

But the early declarers could still be significant - their results last year allowed Tory spinners to claim "we have done BRILLIANTLY in the Red Wall and they all still LOVE BoJo!" which, of course, our media (including, needless to say, the BBC) faithfully relayed as undisputed fact.

This time round, they are unlikely to be as deceptively "good" for the blue team. If the overall results do prove as bad for them as some suspect, expect wall to wall coronation coverage by teatime

[CumbrianLefty]

Anecdotal evidence that at least a few people are being turned away for lack of voter ID in most areas - and also that these tend to be older voters.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour Barely retain the largest party in fractured Lancaster. but the fracturing actually is less that 2019. The Tories and localists got squeezed out by Labour and the Green dogfight.

Greens were briefing in recent days that they were likely to be the biggest party and could even be within reach of a majority - they might be just a little disappointed with the actual results given the splits in the (traditionally rather left wing) local Labour party in the last few years.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reform UK mostly didn't stand in these elections and those who did generally flopped, but I would still be cautious in assuming they will make zero impact in a GE and all their current poll support will just go Tory - for a start they continue to insist they will stand in nearly every GB seat next time, and one thing they do likely have is money (plus the broadcast time lots of candidates will get them)

Despite their problems, I think they *could* hurt the Tories next year if they really wanted to.

And it is quite possible they will (certainly any 2019 style deal seems totally out of the question)

[CumbrianLefty]

There were also town/parish council elections happening in quite a few places - and when contested on a party political basis the results have sometimes been hilariously bad for the Tories (just look at how some Hertfordshire towns have voted, for example)

Some have been in areas where there were no "principal" authority elections last week - and here too much the same applies despite the often predictable comedy turnouts. For instance the new Barrow authority went Labour 19 Tories 2 (and it was close even in the one ward Labour have *never* won)

[CumbrianLefty]

As was ever the case, of course.

Booby prize for client commentary on these results, so far anyway, goes to Times hack Iain Martin - whose "argument" can not unfairly be summarised as "Tories also lost 1000 seats in 1991, so it is all going to be fine". If they really believe this stuff, they are in even worse trouble than I thought.

[CumbrianLefty]

No, the 1995 locals *were* even better for Labour than this and almost everybody thought after them that they would win the GE. Some still didn't expect it would be a landslide, though.