2023 UK Local Elections

[MaxQue]

Are there any guesses what the headline councils will be?

I did love how in 2022 the Tories really seemed to brief heavily about Sunderland and iirc ended up doing awfully.

It was a very weird election in hindsight- it was an bad result for them yet they tried to pretend it was great. They were very lucky to pick up two London councils thanks to Labour local Govt incompetence!

Wasn't the pick up in Harrow mainly because of the Conservatives scaring local Hindus about the Muslim mayor of London?

[MaxQue]

At the moment, maybe hard to beat Plymouth which has descended into chaos after some especially vicious internal Tory warfare.

Also trees. Cause it's always trees when the council is collapsing.  

Also on the wider point, liverpool are still under oversight from the appointed managers. Heck,  the new ward map that's going to be used this year was imposed by them,  and since it's basically all SMDs and 2MDs things could get interesting if voters want a change from local labour.

Most people still seem to be expecting a Labour majority, though. This is one place where memories of the LibDem coalition years are likely to last longer than average - and thus a drag on their support.

Also, memories of the very impopular (at the end) LD administration of the 00's.

[MaxQue]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The feud happened because former "Labour" MP Tom Blenkinsop pretty much used his influence and staff to have any councillor who he didn't like deselected.

He thankfully retired in 2017 (and probably would have defected to Boris later if he didn't).

[MaxQue]

Redcar is a particularly weird council. I think it's a liberal & independent coalition; with Labour in third, but it appears to be one of those places were the previous Labour council imploded due to a feud.

The feud happened because former "Labour" MP Tom Blenkinsop pretty much used his influence and staff to have any councillor who he didn't like deselected.

He thankfully retired in 2017 (and probably would have defected to Boris later if he didn't).

Blenkinsop claims to be a committed Labour supporter again these days.

And works for a business lobby that would gladly tear the Blair-era labour law progress.

[MaxQue]

Local election night traditions to look out for ---

The tone of the night/day after being set by the first few council declarations, even if they are completely unrepresentative overall.

Fortunately, this time around the first councils should be instructive rather than outliers. And this is because we are dealing with an environment where it's going to be Tory losses in all but a specific places, whereas the past few local elections have been good for Conservatives or close enough to tied that you can have large portions of the country recognizably trending in different directions. Labour flips the script.

Like one of the first councils to declare in 2022 was Bolton. That might take longer to count this time cause all seats are up because of redistricting, rather than 1/3, but it's still perhaps the most interesting council election this year. So many localist groups, incumbent conservatives, and Labour looking to push them all aside and take majority in a marginal area.

Then there's Sunderland where one can get a strong indicator of how well a council with a less-than-perfect reputation benefits from the polling - theoretically a sweep is possible but unlikely. The list of areas that have reported early in the past then continues to be filled with Labour target areas to varying degrees: Peterborough, Worcester, Amber Valley, Hartlepool, Plymouth, Reddich, Thurrock, Wirral, and Swindon - the place where National Labour launched their locals campaign cause a flip seems so easily in reach.

Amber Valley is also all-outs and won't count until Friday. Wirral and Swindon are also counting on Friday, this time.

[MaxQue]

Broxborne declared no changes in seats in very safe blue turf.

Sky News reported one seat gain for Labour.

It's no change; 9 Con, 1 Lab; council 27 Con, 3 Lab.

[MaxQue]

Why is Sky just reporting 2 Labour, 1 Tory council results, while BBC has Labour already at 5-1?

Is it different sources to get the results?

Seems Sky only declares results once all wards have reported in a council area.

[MaxQue]

btw what's with the original Liberal Party so well in Tuebrook and that area? One wouldn't think Liverpool West Derby to be the bastion of British Liberalism. Why are the locals so infatuated with a dying brand?

These people have no claim to the Liberal Party of Gladstone and Lloyd George. It's just a small rightwing personal vehicle of Steve Radford.

Is he that right-wing?  He once stood for the European Parliament as part of a hard left slate ("No2EU").

Tbf, I think that was just a slate for all manner of anti-EU cranks who for whatever reason didn’t fit in UKIP.

I remember UKIP's trans MEP joined it.

That was another one, "We Demand A Referendum Now".  No2EU was associated with Bob Crow and the RMT union, and supported by various hard left outfits (overlapping heavily with TUSC), but in 2009 it also included the 1989 Liberals, with Radford as a candidate in the North West region.

Speaking of the 1989 Liberals, here's last week's result for Honiton St Michael's ward (East Devon council):

Jenny Brown (Con) 708 elected
Violet Bonetta (Lab) 598 elected
Roy Collins (1989 Lib) 534 elected
Brice Cornelius (Con) 531
Paul Carter (Con) 508
Joanne Fotheringham (Ind) 477
Nicholas Ingham (Ind) 419

Note that there was no Lib Dem candidate, somewhat surprisingly given that this ward is in a Lib Dem held constituency.  I wonder how many of those 534 voters realised which party he represented.

That post also nicely links with the previous in another, Violet Bonetta being one of the few openly trans councillor in UK, too.

[MaxQue]

What happens to a second preference vote going to an already elected candidate?

Is the whole ballot discarded (on the basis that a the voter should be satisfied) or is the third preference considered (on the basis that the vote has still made no difference?)

The latter.

[MaxQue]

How does a petition work? Are the ballots not certified?

Disappointed if Alliance go to court and stick the shoe in despite their increasing success each election. Shows a lack of confidence in their project, and will turn me off from listing them next time.

They have rich unionist hunting grounds East of the Bann, Foyle is ground zero for nationalism, and the SDLP has been their closest legislative collaborator.

A petition is a lawsuit against the certified election result. It seems in this case, through, it would be a joint lawsuit between the Alliance and the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland, which isn't happy that its rules on counts were not respected. Being sued is the only legal way for them to solve the mistake.