2023 UK Local Elections

[Torrain]

It’s only one poll - but crabcake’s point about this not being a slam-dunk against Labour seems to being borne out:
https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1628724944614875137
One thing I’d be interested to work out - is the higher awareness amongst Labour-leaning and younger voters a result of influencer types kicking up a fuss, and awareness of voter ID fights in the US? Or is it something more mundane.

Either way - I’d be rather amused if the policy gets shifted back after a disastrous rollout and several days of the BBC doing vox pops with angry members of the blue rinse brigade.

[Blair]

Yeah young people will have a reason to need a form of ID e.g to buy alcohol or enter clubs, and they will have the capacity to get a new one.

The people I know who don’t have ID are elderly family members who don’t have a passport anymore and didn’t renew their driving license.

[Blair]

It is going to be an absolute disaster mainly because it will change the tone of U.K. polling stations yet the weird public discourse around this has not meant there’s a huge backlash- a lot of people falsely think you need photo ID to pick up a parcel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My suspicion is that if this all goes ahead, then at many polling stations the rules will be quietly ignored. British polling districts are usually quite small, so if you're a reliable voter, the poll-workers usually know you by sight after a few rounds of elections...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1637484745192865795?s=20

Regular breakdowns each Sunday here and on twitch.

[Blair]

It happens every year but the coverage seems very underwhelming- I guess a function of local papers getting hollowed out & a lack of quality regional news sources, along with the depressing fact most people in Westminster don't really understand local politics outside of London, or other big cities.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It happens every year but the coverage seems very underwhelming- I guess a function of local papers getting hollowed out & a lack of quality regional news sources, along with the depressing fact most people in Westminster don't really understand local politics outside of London, or other big cities.

Most people in Westminster don't really understand local politics in London either.

[Blair]

In rather lol news the Tories launched their local election campaign without any one noticing.

And have now briefed against Starmer for launching his when the King was speaking... in Germany.

[Blair]

What councils will people be looking out for results wise?

[JimJamUK]

What councils will people be looking out for results wise?

All of them, these are some notable ones from different points of view:
Bolton, Sheffield, Wirral - Can recent Labour underperformance be overcome by a strong national environment, pushing them close to a majority of seats?
Dudley, Walsall - Labour need a good result this year to take a majority next year.
Blackpool, Darlington, Derby, Hartlepool - Poor results in the 2019 general election for Labour but they should be making gains off the Tories this year nonetheless.
Bournemouth etc, Canterbury - Labour will expect strong gains in areas they were previously weak.
Bolsover, Middlesbrough, Stoke - Poor results in both 2019 local and general elections, but Labour should be making big gains off independents as well as some Tories.
Bath etc, Bedford - Three way contests, can the Lib Dems entrench their strong 2019 results?
Brighton and Hove, Mid Suffolk, Norwich - Can the Greens continue their recent advances?

[CumbrianLefty]

Take a close look at the Wirral results last year - Labour were *very* unlucky then in seats terms.

And in fact their recent Sheffield performances haven't been terrible either - again quite a few close results that they were on the wrong side of.

Bolton, yes totally agreed. Labour came back well in Sunderland last year though, so who knows.

(and re your last comment, I hear Labour are quite optimistic in Brighton - looks like next month will be really brutal for the Tories there and complete wipeout is not totally impossible)

[JimJamUK]

Take a close look at the Wirral results last year - Labour were *very* unlucky then in seats terms.

And in fact their recent Sheffield performances haven't been terrible either - again quite a few close results that they were on the wrong side of.

Bolton, yes totally agreed. Labour came back well in Sunderland last year though, so who knows.

(and re your last comment, I hear Labour are quite optimistic in Brighton - looks like next month will be really brutal for the Tories there and complete wipeout is not totally impossible)

Yeah, there’s been a general flattening of the non-Labour vote in a lot of metropolitan councils, so that in a good year Labour can make a lot of gains off other parties (the Tories, definitely).

Bolton will be a mess. Labour could gain/hold off a variety of different parties, and should benefit from a relatively well organised Reform UK. Still, their recovery in 2022 was rather patchy, suggesting some organisation issues that may prevent them doing as well as they should, especially against the Lib Dems/localists.

That make sense. They gained a seat off the Tories in a by-election and the previous Labour administration was a bit of a mess. How the current Green one is doing, I’m not sure (but it doesn’t look like the pr disaster the 2011-2015 one was).

[YL]

And in fact their recent Sheffield performances haven't been terrible either - again quite a few close results that they were on the wrong side of.

This is indeed true of the last couple of years: some of the Lib Dem wins, including in some usually strong wards, have been narrow, and only a small swing would lose them several seats and potentially give Labour control.  But historically Labour not being in control is poor: remember they ran Sheffield continuously from the 1930s until 1999, except for a brief Tory interlude in 1968/69, which probably wouldn’t have happened if it hadn’t been for the timing of all-up elections in 1967.

I’m not sure, however, that we should particularly expect strong Labour results this year when they’re up against the Lib Dems or Greens as opposed to the Tories.  We’ll see.

[Conservatopia]

On my council of South Gloucestershire we could see a LD-Labour coalition if the LDs can play their cards right.

The Tories' national woes are compounded here by a deeply unpopular local administration.

[JimJamUK]

On my council of South Gloucestershire we could see a LD-Labour coalition if the LDs can play their cards right.

The Tories' national woes are compounded here by a deeply unpopular local administration.

Tbh, it’s more a shock they didn’t lose it in 2019. Their vote held up well back then (and perhaps the boundary changes helped?), so it’s certainly on paper one of the lowest hanging fruit for the Conservatives to lose.

[Coldstream]

On my council of South Gloucestershire we could see a LD-Labour coalition if the LDs can play their cards right.

The Tories' national woes are compounded here by a deeply unpopular local administration.

Labours issue is that whilst there are a lot of Labour voters in the FaBS part of South Glos, they are pretty low propensity to turnout - whilst the Tory postal vote machine is very sophisticated there. We could quite easily sweep half a dozen wards - and quite easily lose all of them narrowly, will be hard to predict. The Tories are also fortunate that Labour don’t have anything close to a full slate in South Glos.

In Bath it’s a question of whether Dan Norris has enough downballot strength to break the habit of voting Lib Dem again. *If* that happens we could quite easily get double our seats on the council, but it’s up in the air still. The Lib Dem’s have a huge amount of money compared to Labour & the Tories there thanks to Lord Strasburger.

[CumbrianLefty]

Dan Norris isn't standing this year surely?

[Coldstream]

Dan Norris isn't standing this year surely?

No, but he proved Labour can win in Bath - if people voted the same way in 2023 as they did in 2021 we’d pick up half a dozen seats in Bath.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mayoral elections often don't have that much read-though into council contests.

[Blair]

I feel like virtually every local election I've followed has had the 'Tories will lose 1000 councillors’ briefed and then included in headlines.

The article then mentions it's an inflated figure yet no doubt when they lose 700 seats it will be billed as a good night for them.

I'm still angry at how last year was somehow seen as a good result!

[Oryxslayer]

New Statesman/Britain Elects are out with their 2023 councilor data map and analysis - you can view it with a free limited-articles account.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1646857966656663552?s=20

[TheTide]

New Statesman/Britain Elects are out with their 2023 councilor data map and analysis - you can view it with a free limited-articles account.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1646857966656663552?s=20

Probably quite difficult to put such a map together. Aside from the sheer volume of results, it is often notoriously difficult to navigate the local elections sections on the websites of local authorities.     

[YL]

I notice that that New Statesman article does not discuss the prospects of the Labour candidates in Chester City & the Garden Quarter ward on Cheshire West & Chester council.

As someone who has always been a bit of a sceptic when it comes to formal "progressive alliance" pacts, it will be interesting to observe the results in Bracknell Forest.  As he says, there are no wards at all which have Lib Dem candidates and also either Labour or Green candidates.  (There are some with both Labour and Greens.)

[YL]

Here's my preview of the elections in Yorkshire.  I've claimed the councils entirely on the south bank of the Tees, but not those south of the Humber.

There are no elections this year in North Yorkshire (except for some parish level elections), Rotherham or Doncaster.  Of the remaining councils, lets start with those which have all-up elections.

East Riding of Yorkshire Currently Con 42, Lib Dem 13, Yorkshire Party 2, Ind 10.  A couple of the Independents and one of the Lib Dems were elected as Tories.  In spite of the general Toryish feel of this area, this could be interesting: there were three by-elections in 2022, and all saw Lib Dem gains on big surges in their vote share.  Labour failed to win a single seat four years ago, losing out to Independent candidates in Goole South.  The two Yorkshire Party seats are both in Bridlington South ward, and both are defending their seats.  Bridlington was once the stronghold of the continuing SDP, so has a history of minor party support.

York Currently Lib Dem 21, Lab 17, Green 3, Con 2, Ind 4, with a Lib Dem/Green administration.  One of the Independents was elected as a Green.  Unusually, York was substantially expanded when it became a unitary in the 1990s, and that has made it harder for Labour to control: they do well in the urban core (the York Central constituency) but the more outlying areas (the York Outer constituency) are dominated by Lib Dems locally, though York Outer now looks like a Labour target seat for Westminster.  Labour would need seven gains for control, and it's hard to see where they would come from.  The Lib Dems could make it, though: simply winning the two remaining Tory seats would get them within one seat.

Redcar & Cleveland Currently Lab 15, Lib Dem 14, Con 6, East Cleveland Ind 1, Ind 23.  Labour haven't had a very happy time in this part of the world in recent years, and had a very poor result here in 2019, though as can be seen the main beneficiaries were Independents rather than the other parties.  The Lib Dem strength is mostly in Redcar town, with the remaining Labour strength mostly in the parts of the Middlesbrough urban area in this council area.  This will be a council to watch regarding whether Labour can recover in areas of recent poor performance.

Middlesbrough Currently Lab 21, Con 3, Ind 22.  Elected Mayor is Independent, and also up for election.  The Independents are in three different groups, but none are registered parties.  The Mayoralty has been Independent except in 2015, when it was Labour, and this is very much a contest between Labour and various Independents.  Labour only need a handful of gains for control, and recent by-election results have been quite promising, but this sort of contest tends to be quite decoupled from national politics.

Then the thirds councils:

Sheffield Currently Lab 38, Lib Dem 29, Green 14, Con 1, Ind 1, vacant (Lab) 1.  The Ind was elected as Lab.  Up this year Lab 13, Lib Dem 11, Green 4 plus the Lab vacancy, giving a double election in Manor Castle (which has been, allowing for ward boundary changes, Labour since the 1920s).  After a couple of difficult years for Labour, it's more the Lib Dems playing defence this time, with the majority of those 11 defences being in wards which Labour won last year or which were close, and no obvious Lib Dem targets for gains.  The Greens have a chance of winning more seats, challenging Labour in Hillsborough and Walkley and the Lib Dems in Ecclesall (where Labour are in the hunt as well) but also have to defend four seats of their own.  The Lib Dems have been getting some criticism for their campaigning, including bar charts pretending that the Greens don't exist.  The Tories are only really in contention in one ward, Stocksbridge & Upper Don, which they won in 2021 but voted Labour in 2019 and 2022.

Barnsley Currently Lab 45, Lib Dem 9, Con 3, Reform UK 1, Barnsley Independent Group 1, Ind 3, vacant (Lab) 1.  One Ind and one Lab were elected as Democrats & Veterans, and the Reform UK was elected as Con.  Up this year Lab 12 plus the vacancy, Lib Dem 3, Con 1, BIG 1, Ind 3, including both councillors elected as Democrats & Veterans.  The Barnsley Independent Group are not defending their Stairfoot seat and have no candidates, and the Ind elected as D & V in Monk Bretton is also not defending, so those two wards are free for alls.  The Lib Dem breakthrough a few years ago seems to have stabilised, with them now dominating three wards but with no other obvious targets based on last year's results.  The Conservatives have all three seats in Penistone East, where the Labour candidate is having a go (and you can read his thoughts on letterboxes here); last year the Tories also won Rockingham ward (western Hoyland and Birdwell) for the first time ever, but their councillor there has since defected to Reform UK.

Wakefield Currently Lab 45, Con 10, Lib Dem 3, Ind 5.  All 5 Independents were elected as Con, and one Lab was elected as Independent.  Up this year Lab 16, Con 3, Lib Dem 1, Ind 1, with the Ind elected as Con and one Lab elected as Ind.  There's always some fun in Wakefield, and the Tory group has been providing this recently with a number of councillors leaving it.  One of those is defending his Wakefield South seat (traditionally the most Tory seat in the borough) for the new Wakefield District Independents party.  The Tories have in fact already lost one seat: their defending councillor in Ossett withdrew too late for them to find a new candidate, so that ward is up for grabs.  It's not impossible that they could fail to win a single seat.  Meanwhile the power behind the Lib Dem surge in Knottingley, Tom Gordon, is stepping down to try to become MP for Harrogate & Knaresborough, and so the Lib Dems have to defend that seat without him.

Kirklees Currently Lab 36, Con 18, Green 3, Ind 4 (1 elected as Lab, 1 as Heavy Woollen District Independent).  Up this year Lab 10, Con 5, Lib Dem 4, Green 1, Ind 3 (1 elected as Lab, 1 as HWDI).  Labour took control last year, and will hope to increase their margin this year; they can hope to recover the Colne Valley seat where the defending councillor became an Independent, and the Dewsbury East seat from the disbanded Heavy Woollen District Independents, and have some other possible gains from the Tories and Lib Dems.

Calderdale Currently Lab 28, Con 15, Lib Dem 6, Green 1, Ind 1.  The Ind was elected as Con.  Up this year Lab 10, Con 4, Lib Dem 2, Ind 1 (elected as Con).  Labour had a strong result in 2019 and took control then, but one question will be whether they can make a breakthrough in Brighouse, which they last won in 2012, or Ryburn, which is historically a Tory ward but where they were close last year.  On the other hand a bad year for Labour could see them lose seats to the Tories in Elland or Illingworth & Mixenden, both of which were blue in 2021.  The Tories lost a seat last year to the Greens in Northowram & Shelf; the Tory councillor there left the party and is not defending the seat, so it looks like a Con/Green contest.

Bradford Currently Lab 52, Con 20, Lib Dem 6, Green 6, Ind 6 (three elected as Con).  Up this year Lab 18, Con 8, Lib Dem 2, Green 1, Ind 1 (elected as Con).  This is always a bit unpredictable.  The Tory elected in Keighley Central is defending as an Independent, and presumably has a decent chance, as "Conservative" was basically a flag of convenience.  Labour will be targeting Bingley (Con) and Eccleshill (Lib Dem), while the Greens have a number of potential gains.  The Lib Dems seem to be in slow decline here.  

Leeds Currently Lab 58, Con 21, Lib Dem 7, Morley Borough Ind 6, Green 3, Garforth & Swillington Ind 3, SDP 1.  Up this year Lab 19, Con 7, Lib Dem 3, MBI 2, Green 1, GSI 1.  The Con/Lab contest might be most interesting in the west and north-west of the city, where Labour have targets in Horsforth and Pudsey and potentially Guiseley & Rawdon, and the Tories a target in Calverley & Farsley.  Labour will presumably also be targeting the Lib Dems in Weetwood and the Greens in Farnley & Wortley, but are defending seats in wards they lost last year to the Greens in Hunslet & Riverside and to the SDP in Middleton Park.

Hull Currently Lib Dem 29, Lab 27, Ind 1.  The Ind was elected as Lib Dem.  Up this year Lab 10, Lib Dem 8, Ind (elected as Lib Dem) 1.  The Lib Dems took control last year, and there aren't obvious Labour targets in wards the Lib Dems won in 2019, so no change or a small increase in the Lib Dem majority seems most likely.  There's no obvious way back for the Tories.

[Oryxslayer]

I notice that that New Statesman article does not discuss the prospects of the Labour candidates in Chester City & the Garden Quarter ward on Cheshire West & Chester council.

It's kinda interesting why Chester isn't even discussed: the guy who does this analysis + Britainelects has mentioned on a few times on the stream/podcast that he is standing as a Labour candidate in one of the Chester wards and therefore there is a conflict of interest to analyze the council.  Though perhaps you already knew this and that was the subtext which went over my head.