NV-GOV 2022: Sisolak vs. Lombardo

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1455156483197341698?s=21

[Woody]

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1470812613437059073?s=21

[PSOL]

Sisolak is going to lose this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sisolak is going to lose this.

He's only down 6 by a no D it's 336 days til the Election and the polls showed him losing to Laxalt those are NV polls

[PSOL]

Sisolak is going to lose this.

He's only down 6 by a no D it's 336 days til the Election and the polls showed him losing to Laxalt those are NV polls

He has absolutely nothing going for him and he only made it through from a wave year. The most major decision he did in his tenure was walk back from establishing company towns from public pressure, and the dampening of Democrats nationally from recent events should sink him to lose like Mcaullife.

Nevada is a lean R state now, and in this cycle it shifts further and further away from a win where it would count.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sisolak is going to lose this.

He's only down 6 by a no D it's 336 days til the Election and the polls showed him losing to Laxalt those are NV polls

He has absolutely nothing going for him and he only made it through from a wave year. The most major decision he did in his tenure was walk back from establishing company towns from public pressure, and the dampening of Democrats nationally from recent events should sink him to lose like Mcaullife.

Nevada is a lean R state now, and in this cycle it shifts further and further away from a win where it would count.

Biden Approvals are at 50% not 41% go ahead and think NV is a Lean R state CCM is on the ballot and the state is dominated by all female state legislatures

He may lose but if Biden winds up exact at 50% t on Election night Sisolak won't lose because party performance winds up exactly where Prez Approvals are

It's a 3o4 mapl


It's six pts and News flash we won NV in 2016/2020 it was a Neutral yr not a wave yr, being six pts down isn't being down six pts in FL, TX or OH

[Roll Roons]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/judge-rules-in-favor-of-ballot-measure-for-open-primaries-ranked-choice-voting?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=rop

There'll likely be a statewide ballot initiative changing all elections (besides president) to an Alaska-style system where partisan primaries are abolished in favor of a jungle system where the top five candidates advance to the general and the winner is elected by RCV.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/1519477765363359747?s=21&t=eouFPxpv6jX...

[wbrocks67]

Sisolak is going to lose this.

Morning Consult has him at +10 approval right now.

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sisolak is going to lose this.

Morning Consult has him at +10 approval right now.

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

Imagine believing any poll at this point that shows a democratic governor in a swing state with that kind of approval rating

[GregTheGreat657]

https://twitter.com/bencjacobs/status/1519477765363359747?s=21&t=eouFPxpv6jX...

Based endorsement from Trump

[Sestak]

Given that the NV-Sen thread (along with poll threads of that race) has become ground zero of the Take Wars (and also just that this is a competitive race in a swing state governorship), I'm kind of surprised it doesn't have a dedicated thread yet. Am guessing the takes are going to be somewhat more muted here, but still, might as well have this here.

Was spurred to make this thread by this post in the Senate thread on Jon Ralston's opinion of the races:

Jon Ralston was on David Plouffe's podcast today.

Based on focus groups he held, he seems to think that swing voters are more willing to give Lombardo a chance than they are to give Laxalt a chance.

He also said that CCM is running a flawless campaign.

While you should take it with a grain of salt, Ralston is usually has a pretty good pulse on NV.

While most of the attention will go to his bullishness on CCM, it is worth noting that if he's right on the comparison between Laxalt and Lombardo and NV polling is broadly correct on the lean of the state this cycle, then Sisolak is probably the most vulnerable Democratic governor in the country. Even if a 2018-type NV polling miss is in play here, he may still be in serious trouble.

Of course, fundamentally this is just the opinion of Ralston (who I do consider to be somewhat credible) based on some focus groups (a method I generally find rather suspect at drawing major conclusions).  Polling has generally shown the two races about even (and even a few with Laxalt outperforming Lombardo), so he probably shouldn't just be taken at his word.


Personally, the "Laxalt outperforms Lombardo" polls feel...off to me in the same way that the "Barnes outperforms Evers" polls last month did. But I also might be stuck too much in the convensional wisdom from 2018 (when the governor's race was seen as a contests between two...not particularly likable candidates).

[ProgressiveModerate]

From what I've heard, the Nevada State Democrats are not very well liked right now because of the COVID lockdowns and it seems like they've overstepped a bit ever since they had all the row offices and the state legislature. It's a bit of the inverse of a place like GA or TX where Rs govern like it's an R + 20 state.

[henster]

Sisolak seems more likely to lose at this point than even Evers. He’s had trifecta his entire term but his record is really underwhelming. No big initiatives to really point to, you’d think he could have passed something like a state cap on insulin or rebate checks but nothing…

[MargieCat]

Sisolak seems more likely to lose at this point than even Evers. He’s had trifecta his entire term but his record is really underwhelming. No big initiatives to really point to, you’d think he could have passed something like a state cap on insulin or rebate checks but nothing…

He also vetoed joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, despite his legislature passing it.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1575916751509864448

...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/RileySnyder/status/1575916751509864448

...

Yeah I think it's possible only Laxalt and Lombardo win statewide

[President Johnson]

Is the Republican candidate for State Treasurer so extreme or why is this?

[Senator Incitatus]

Heller is one thing, but Amy Tarkanian? Who is this guy?

[xavier110]

Is the Republican candidate for State Treasurer so extreme or why is this?

I previously read that Fiore, the GOP nominee, is often considered one of the most unqualified candidates to be (legitimately) running for statewide office in any state this year. I believe she’s had scandal after scandal, FBI probe, you name it, on top of being nutty.

[Gracile]

I'm kind of surprised it doesn't have a dedicated thread yet.

It does (which is what I merged your thread into). Please check the Gubernatorial Races Megathread Directory before starting a new megathread like this again.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1582388019616657408

[Aurelius]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/judge-rules-in-favor-of-ballot-measure-for-open-primaries-ranked-choice-voting?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=rop

There'll likely be a statewide ballot initiative changing all elections (besides president) to an Alaska-style system where partisan primaries are abolished in favor of a jungle system where the top five candidates advance to the general and the winner is elected by RCV.

Top FIVE? What's the point of a primary then? lmao

[Aurelius]

Sisolak seems more likely to lose at this point than even Evers. He’s had trifecta his entire term but his record is really underwhelming. No big initiatives to really point to, you’d think he could have passed something like a state cap on insulin or rebate checks but nothing…

Welcome back!