NV-GOV 2022: Sisolak vs. Lombardo

[Turtlebro735]

So I guess Hutchinson isn’t running for senate then.

[Joe Republic]

Northern Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei, a Republican, said Friday that he's still weighing whether to run for governor and did not have a timeline for when he might make a decision.

“We're just going through our process,” Amodei said.

He said he spoke with former U.S. Sen. Dean Heller a week ago, who told Amodei he was interested in running for governor.

Heller did not return a text message seeking comment.

Republican former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who ran for governor against Sisolak in 2018, has been considered a potential candidate for governor next year or a U.S. Senate candidate challenging incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto.

Laxalt said in a statement Friday that he was humbled by the encouragement he has received from Nevadans to run for another public office but did not say if he would enter the governor's or Senate race.

“I will continue to have these conversations with friends and supporters, and I will make a decision regarding a future run at a time most appropriate for my family and me,” he said.

This thread title could use an update.

[Mr.Phips]

So why does strongly Dem Clark county have a Republican sheriff?

[Joe Republic]

So why does strongly Dem Clark county have a Republican sheriff?

It's non-partisan.

[S019]

It is odd how so many people want to run for this seat, but like no one wants to run against Masto. Anyways Heller would be a very could get and could very well beat Sisolak. Additionally, it's unclear if the "Senator Spineless" attacks that bogged him down in 2018 will be relevant in 2022, which will have been more than 5 years after the GOP ACA repeal debacle. Tossup for now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So why does strongly Dem Clark county have a Republican sheriff?

Same reason why strongly Dem San Diego had GOP Mayor Kevin Faulconer

[Joe Republic]

It is odd how so many people want to run for this seat, but like no one wants to run against Masto. Anyways Heller would be a very could get and could very well beat Sisolak. Additionally, it's unclear if the "Senator Spineless" attacks that bogged him down in 2018 will be relevant in 2022, which will have been more than 5 years after the GOP ACA repeal debacle. Tossup for now.

CCM has been fairly inoffensive, and doesn’t have cause to attract flak the way Sisolak has.  Even the Dems know he’s highly vulnerable, and the base is quite pissed off with him right now as well.

[Roll Roons]

So why does strongly Dem Clark county have a Republican sheriff?

Clark isn't that blue. Biden only won it by 9. Even Obama didn't crack 60% there in 2008.

[Terlylane]

Honestly, I think both Sisolak and Masto are safe. (For now)

[Chips]

This could be a very close race.

[LabourJersey]

Honestly, I think both Sisolak and Masto are safe. (For now)

Definitely disagree. Sisolak is barely favored for now but I think it's closer to a toss-up than to Lean D at this point. I don't think Sisolak is particularly competent and hasn't endeared himself to most Nevadans.

Cortez Masto seems like a more capable politician and it looks like the Republican nominee will be Laxalt, who doesn't seem that great, but I would still consider that race Lean D.

[Xing]

Honestly, I think both Sisolak and Masto are safe. (For now)

They're definitely not safe in a year like 2022, but people have definitely overreacted to the 2020 results.

[2016]

Former Senator Dean Heller apparently IN
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/heller-run-nevada-governor-490955

[MT Treasurer]

Former Senator Dean Heller apparently IN
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/heller-run-nevada-governor-490955

Toss-up -> Titanium R

UTDH comeback!

[Lognog]

Former Senator Dean Heller apparently IN
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/heller-run-nevada-governor-490955

why doesn't he go for senate?

[coloradocowboi]

I honestly think if Sisolak beats Heller it will only be because CCM runs a great campaign that turns out Latinos and young ppl. It's always a turnout game in NV and who does he inspire?

[Spectator]

Why are all the strong people going for Governor when one of them has an open shot at the Senate nomination? Stupid is as stupid does with the GOP. Lombardo seems like the strongest on paper. I’d fear him most if I were Sisolak.

[Real Texan Politics]

Why are all the strong people going for Governor when one of them has an open shot at the Senate nomination? Stupid is as stupid does with the GOP. Lombardo seems like the strongest on paper. I’d fear him most if I were Sisolak.

If I were Sisolak I'd fear Rick Harrison as well if he runs and grabs the nomination, considering he's a famous Vegas businessman/celebrity. Or maybe he'll look like a total fool and lose embarrassingly.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Former Senator Dean Heller apparently IN
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/heller-run-nevada-governor-490955

why doesn't he go for senate?

He probably agrees with me that he has a better chance of winning the gubernatorial race.

[JMT]

Former Senator Dean Heller apparently IN
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/heller-run-nevada-governor-490955

why doesn't he go for senate?

Heller considered running for Governor in 2018, but decided it wasn't worth potentially losing the primary to Adam Laxalt, so he ran for reelection instead. With Laxalt now being recruited for a run for Senate in 2022 (instead of Governor) and likely to clear the primary field, Heller now has a clearer shot at running for Governor in 2022 (which is the job that Heller seems to want, anyways).

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/thursday-potpourri-sandovals-butte-move-hellers-primary-avoidance-and-fiores-return

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/catherine-cortez-masto-nevada-midterms-490864

[Xing]

Former Senator Dean Heller apparently IN
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/26/heller-run-nevada-governor-490955

Toss-up -> Titanium R

UTDH comeback!

Welp, RIP Masto, Newsom, Padilla, and whoever the D nominees in OR are .

[Sir Mohamed]

Race is a tossup. I have a feeling Sisolak is more vulnerable than CCM regardless of the challenger. Sisolak is a boring dude who inspires nobody and has his left flank open for opposing some progressive policies. Wouldn't be surprised if a few CCM voters leave the gubernatorial ballot blank or use the "none of these candidates" option, which is unique in NV.

[Pollster]

It is odd how so many people want to run for this seat, but like no one wants to run against Masto.

It makes sense with some foresight - running against CCM would be an uphill battle that, if successful, immediately positions you for what would in all likelihood be an even tougher reelection fight in a Presidential year after six years of taking tough votes.

Running against Sisolak is probably a marginally less challenging campaign and positions you for reelection in what will likely be another Dem midterm, along with the position of governor by nature offering you more freedom and independence in terms of building your record.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Race is a tossup. I have a feeling Sisolak is more vulnerable than CCM regardless of the challenger. Sisolak is a boring dude who inspires nobody and has his left flank open for opposing some progressive policies. Wouldn't be surprised if a few CCM voters leave the gubernatorial ballot blank or use the "none of these candidates" option, which is unique in NV.

Lol the Economy is coming back this isn't a 2010 or 2014 Election

[Meatball Ron]

So it seems like the likeliest outcome here is Heller for Governor, Laxalt for Senate, and Amodei for reelection (or retirement?).

Governor is a Toss-Up, Senate is Lean D with strong potential to become a Toss-Up. Gun to my head though, Sisolak loses and Masto wins. I don't think Sisolak has been doing a good job, in part for the reasons Sir Mohamed laid out. Easy to see a third-party candidate or "none of these candidates" playing spoiler here, especially given how much he's pissed off the leftists (who now run the state party).

And this is a good thing, because the Senate race is so much more important. Heller would likely be a perfectly competent Governor even if we aren't aligned on some key issues (and in all likelihood he'll have a Dem legislature, or at least a divided legislature, to contend with, so it's not like he can really implement too much by way of conservative policy)