UK Local Elections 2022

[YL]

It’s official: Labour have control of Westminster.  First time ever.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It’s official: Labour have control of Westminster.  First time ever.

Sadly not that Westminster.

[Alcibiades]

Tories reduced to third place in Merton with only 6 councillors* (3 in Village, by far the wealthiest ward in the borough, 1 in Hillside, which is sort of an extension of the Village, and 2 in Cannon Hill, lower middle class suburbia which has trended towards them recently) as Lib Dems become the official opposition, helped by some smaller gains from Labour as well. Overall a very bad night for the Tories in London, doing worse than what was already a bad election in the capital in 2018.

(On a personal note, very happy to have done my small bit to contribute to kicking out all three of my local Tory councillors!)

*Although they could still win a seat in previously Labour-held Lower Morden, which has a similar profile to Cannon Hill, and which seems to have gone to a recount.

[Pericles]

Looks like a Remainer revolt, Starmer appeals very well to these people when the alternative is the Brexit PM.

[Blair]

I look forward to Tory MPs who live in London and will do forever, telling everyone over the next few days that it doesn’t actually matter and it’s not the ‘real country.’

The line is already forming that winning in London is irrelevant and that Labour aren’t doing well enough outside or at least should be better.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bristol has abolished its mayoral system.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Bristol has abolished its mayoral system.

Is there a good overview of the different types of british local goverments ?

[YL]

Results in Sheffield:


Four seats changed hands, but they went in different directions and the net effect was one Green gain from Labour.  Labour now have 39 seats out of 84, the Lib Dems 29, the Greens 14 and the Tories 1; the 84th seat is held by a former Labour councillor now sitting as an Independent.  The Tories fell back substantially from 2021; e.g. in East Ecclesfield, which they made a genuine three way marginal last year and is in the Penistone & Stocksbridge constituency they gained in 2019, they got less than half Labour's vote.

Barnsley (Lab 49, Lib Dem 7, Con 3, Barnsley Independent Group 1, other Independents 3) It's Barnsley, so unsurprisingly Labour currently has a comfortable majority.  They will probably lose a handful of seats to Lib Dems and maybe to the Barnsley Independent Group (not the force they were) or some other random Independents.  The Tories only missed out on a gain in Rockingham ward on a coin toss last year, so might have an outside chance of breaking out of Penistone East.

Labour did indeed lose two seats to Lib Dems, but didn't lose anything to Independents this year.  But that ward the Tories lost on a coin toss last year actually voted for them this year, which I think is the first time they've ever won a non-Penistone seat on Barnsley council.

[Blair]

Bristol has abolished its mayoral system.

I’ve seen conflicting stuff about the merits but it was baffling to have two mayors in a pissing contest.

[Blair]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London is going to collapse once we get the Scottish and Welsh results.

[YL]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London is going to collapse once we get the Scottish and Welsh results.

It's not really true anyway, is it?  There are lots of places outside London with bad Tory results: Portsmouth, Southampton, Worcester, West Oxfordshire (look at the 2018 results in some of those wards the Tories lost), Cumberland to name a few.  Some of those are quite Brexity, too.

It is true that there are some places where they held up quite well and even gained seats: most obviously several Greater Manchester boroughs and some Midlands districts (and that random Barnsley ward).  But that's far from being the general story in England outside London, even in "Red Wall" type areas.

[YL]

Bristol has abolished its mayoral system.

Is there a good overview of the different types of british local goverments ?

Well, it is complicated.  But as far as mayors go, there are three types:
- Lots of councils (cities and boroughs) have a ceremonial Mayor (in some cities titled Lord Mayor) who chairs the council, attends events on the council's behalf etc., but who has no executive power beyond that of an ordinary councillor other than a casting vote in the event of a tie.  These Mayors are chosen by the council, and generally the position goes to a reasonably respected senior councillor.
- A relatively small number of councils have a directly elected executive Mayor.  We'll be seeing some results for these later: Newham, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets for example.  These Mayors effectively replace the council leader, and if the Mayor represents a party that party has effective control of the council.
- Some groups of councils have a Mayor who is directly elected by the whole area; these typically run a "combined authority" which has no other elected body and has powers across the whole area, often particularly relating to transport.  E.g. Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester, and we'll be seeing results later for the South Yorkshire Mayor.

Bristol currently has all three (in the last case the Mayor is of the "West of England", additionally including South Gloucestershire and Bath & North East Somerset).  It has voted to get rid of the middle one.

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like Havering remaining under No Overall Control but with Residents' Association as the largest "party". First time Tories not the biggest party since 2002.

[jeron]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London is going to collapse once we get the Scottish and Welsh results.

It's not really true anyway, is it?  There are lots of places outside London with bad Tory results: Portsmouth, Southampton, Worcester, West Oxfordshire (look at the 2018 results in some of those wards the Tories lost), Cumberland to name a few.  Some of those are quite Brexity, too.

It is true that there are some places where they held up quite well and even gained seats: most obviously several Greater Manchester boroughs and some Midlands districts (and that random Barnsley ward).  But that's far from being the general story in England outside London, even in "Red Wall" type areas.

Generally the Tories did better in the north and  suffered losses in the south.

[jaichind]

Any ETA on when BBC will come out with their national equivalent vote share calculation?

[vileplume]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London is going to collapse once we get the Scottish and Welsh results.

It's not really true anyway, is it?  There are lots of places outside London with bad Tory results: Portsmouth, Southampton, Worcester, West Oxfordshire (look at the 2018 results in some of those wards the Tories lost), Cumberland to name a few.  Some of those are quite Brexity, too.

It is true that there are some places where they held up quite well and even gained seats: most obviously several Greater Manchester boroughs and some Midlands districts (and that random Barnsley ward).  But that's far from being the general story in England outside London, even in "Red Wall" type areas.

Obviously there are local issues at play too and people are quite often voting on those issues instead of national ones. Those Greater Manchester Councils for example have long been Labour run so honestly you'd expect the Tories to do better in places like that simply by saying 'Labour is running the council badly and has taken x, y and z decisions that you don't like'. Conversely you'd expect them to do worse in Councils they either have run for a long time or have done until recently.

[Torrain]

Lots of very hot takes from Fleet Street about what this all means, but with under half the councils declared, and nothing from the devolved nations, it seems bizarre to impose a full narrative on it yet.

That being said, seems like a good night for the Lib Dems - especially in territory that sits in their target seats in England for 2024. Will have to see whether that’s reflected in Wales and Scotland though - I’ll be less impressed if they can’t pick up some old territory lost to the Tories and SNP there. If they can be the beneficiaries of a Tory collapse in places like David Steel’s old patch in the Borders, or claw back some support in Brecon and Radnorshire, I’ll be warmer to their electoral chances.

It’s now harder than ever to escape the idea that a Tory loss will require a significant tactical vote in ‘24. I guess the Tory election machine is going to spend every day between now and then portraying the Lib-Lab pact as an iron-cast coalition agreement, ready to plunge Britain into a leftist nightmare full of nationalised trains and proportional elections or something.

[Torrain]

First Scottish results coming in.

• Mostly Independents being elected in Orkney, (which has few party-affiliated politicians outside of Westminster and Holyrood elections), but a couple of results in the Borders.
• Tweeddale West (of the Borders Council) has reported, with 15% swing away from the Conservatives. A single result, but given how Conservative leaning the Borders has become post 2016, a potential sign of what’s to come…

It’s worth noting that all Scottish Councils use Single Transferable Vote, which, combined with our reputation for closely-fought marginals, is the reason that no party held a majority on a council between 2017-2022.

The real story is going to be in the shift. Will previous polling, showing a slight dip in SNP support and collapse for the Tories equate to the Labour gains they need to prove that the party is on the recovery? Or does the country just reshuffle a bit, with no material gains made for anyone?

Can Labour make enough progress in Glasgow to convince party HQ to invest in flipping key seats in the next election? What happens to Edinburgh - which is somehow run by a shaky SNP-Labour minority administration? It’s going to be a fascinating morning.

[jeron]

First Scottish results coming in.

• Mostly Independents being elected in Orkney, (which has few party-affiliated politicians outside of Westminster and Holyrood elections), but a couple of results in the Borders.
• Tweeddale West (of the Borders Council) has reported, with 15% swing away from the Conservatives. A single result, but given how Conservative leaning the Borders has become post 2016, a potential sign of what’s to come…

It’s worth noting that all Scottish Councils use Single Transferable Vote, which, combined with our reputation for closely-fought marginals, is the reason that no party held a majority on a council between 2017-2022.

The real story is going to be in the shift. Will previous polling, showing a slight dip in SNP support and collapse for the Tories equate to the Labour gains they need to prove that the party is on the recovery? Or does the country just reshuffle a bit, with no material gains made for anyone?

Can Labour make enough progress in Glasgow to convince party HQ to invest in flipping key seats in the next election? What happens to Edinburgh - which has a plurality of Tories, but is somehow run by a shaky SNP-Labour minority administration? It’s going to be a fascinating morning.

Tories losing accross Scotland. So far they lost seats in Edinburgh, Lomond, Kilmarnock, Annandale, Kirriemur and Forth & Endrick

[afleitch]

Greens topped the vote in my ward in Glasgow which is quite sensational.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I guess the greens have replaced the Lib Dems as the protest party of choice in many places.

[CumbrianLefty]

Much of the punditry on these results has somehow managed to be even worse than usual.

[afleitch]

Much of the punditry on these results has somehow managed to be even worse than usual.

In part because it's harder. Much of the results are not due to 'Brexit' but wider demographic cleavages in age and geography. But that requires engagement with why, that can't be brushed off with 'elites' or 'wokes' or arising 'red walls'.

[Torrain]

Labour have won West Dumbartonshire Council from No Overall Control, making them the first party to control a majority on a Scottish council since 2017.

Results:
Labour - 12 (+4)
SNP - 9 (-1)
Residents Association 1 (+1)
Conservative 0 (-2)
Independent 0 (-2)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The current line the the Tories are doing fine outside of London...

Which, it must be stressed, is a lie. Comparisons with 2021 are really not positive for them at all.