UK Local Elections 2022

[JimJamUK]

I would be cautious about predicting big Lib Dem gains at the next election. They have done well in local elections before and then fell flat on their faces at the general election soon after. Their current big gains are in the context of polling below their 2019 general election performance (and for most of this Parliament they were polling quite a bit lower), which doesn’t suggest much success will be found outside of places where they have established themselves as the clear and credible non-Conservative challenger and targeted their resources fairly narrowly.

[Alcibiades]

It is basically the perfect combination of SW London being both a demographically and ideologically natural fit for the present incarnation of the party, and having a fairly long history of Liberal support — they didn’t win a parliamentary seat in SW London until 1997, but had won a GLC seat in Richmond as early as 1973, and first won the council there in 1986, as well as coming within 74 votes of taking Richmond and Barnes at the 1983 general election.

The “too rich to vote Labour, too educated/socially liberal/pro-European to vote Tory” line is an oversimplification, but it is broadly true and a decent encapsulation of the causes of Lib Dem strength; there are few areas in the entire country with a greater concentration of small-l liberal professionals. Nonetheless, there is a bit more nuance to it, not least in that there are not insignificant variations between the three seats they currently hold in the area.

Richmond Park is the wealthiest of the three (and in fact the most university-educated constituency in the entire country), which in recent times has meant that it is the most Tory (a reversion from the 1970s and 80s, when it was the most Liberal — probably because there were fewer hedge-funders, while the other two, as will be explained below, were much more conservative). However, that’s somewhat splitting hairs these days and the Tories have no realistic prospect of winning it back soon; this is exemplified by the fact that in last week’s election, the ward of Barnes, the very wealthiest in the borough and indeed one of the most anywhere in London, flipped from a full slate of Tory councillors to a full slate of Lib Dems (it is telling that the one councillor the Tories have now on the council — a 90 year old ex-Labour member — is in one of the least well-off wards, on the Twickenham side — being where it is, this merely means lower middle class rather than actually poor). At 71%, it is also a staggeringly Remain-voting seat, the most of these three.

Next comes Twickenham, which demographically sits in the middle of the three; by no means outrageously wealthy, but solidly professional middle class with little deprivation. This demographic median is also a happy electoral median for the Lib Dems, and this is their safest seat in the entire country. Finally, Kingston is the least middle class, though it is still comfortably more so than the national average. Overall, it is the most demographically varied of the three, containing one of the largest commercial town centres in Outer London, professional middle class suburbia such as Surbiton which strongly resemble similar areas in the other two seats, very humdrum, possibly a bit Brexity, lower middle class suburbia in Hook, Chessington and Tolworth, and formerly Labour-voting (the Lib Dems now clean up there) council estates in Norbiton.

In these latter two especially, there was significant demographic and cultural change from the end of the 20th century, as they were transformed from stereotypically stodgy, close-minded suburbia to more liberal (and Liberal) professional milieus. Twickenham was the oppressively conformist early 1960s suburban setting for, the film An Education, while Surbiton was chosen as a stereotypical curtain-twitching suburb for the sitcom The Good Life.

This brings me back to the point on local strength and fortunate historical circumstances; Twickenham and Kingston in particular bear a decent resemblance to some of the suburban North London seats Labour gained in 2017; yet Labour remains incredibly weak there (with the exception of Sadiq Khan winning them in 2021), as the Lib Dems are the default anti-Tory option. Similarly, the Lib Dems, although they have had some success, are nowhere near as strong in professional upper middle class areas of North London such as Highgate and Hampstead that resemble Richmond.

Finally, Sutton used to be part of the yellow blob in South London (they originally gained the council in the 80s after a backlash to a comically reactionary Tory administration, the last in the country to demand robes be worn to meetings), but has trended away from the party since Brexit; it voted Leave and thus is rather different to the seats they currently hold. Although the Lib Dems suffered fewer losses than anticipated in the council elections there and held the majority when some had predicted they would lose it, I struggle to see them winning Carshalton and Wallington back, especially with Tom Brake out of the picture.

On the flip side, Wimbledon looks like an almost sure gain for them at the next election, especially after they basically swept the wards covering the seat last week. Wimbledon is, as a crude analogy, kind of like a mixture between its neighbours Richmond and Putney — more urban and working class than the former, less so than the latter — and is accordingly a mixture of the two in terms of politics. It has little historic Liberal strength, having instead been held by Labour in the Blair years, but the Lib Dems came within 600 votes of winning it at the last election thanks to a popular local candidate, Brexit, and the unpopularity of Corbyn. They now seem to have gotten their foot firmly in the door, cemented by the aforementioned council gains, and although Labour might make a play for it at the next general, I think the Lib Dems will gain it fairly comfortably. Like its more longstanding Liberal neighbours, Wimbledon seems to be flipping yellow due to a combination of natural ideological inclination and fortunate local circumstances.

Sorry, this went on for rather longer than I originally intended, but I couldn’t resist the opportunity to share some local knowledge

[Tintrlvr]

Labour used to be capable of winning a significant number of seats in both Sutton and Kingston but in recent years the LibDem machine has pretty much taken over their previous strong areas.

(Richmond has had the most complete and longest lasting yellow hegemony, Labour being eliminated from the council in the late 1970s and only winning a handful of wards since in 1994/98)

For what it's worth, Sutton has been under continuous Lib Dem rule for the longest: The Lib Dems have had a majority on the council continuously since 1990 (whereas the Tories have occasionally had breakthroughs in Richmond and Kingston).

The Lib Dem pocket seems to be expanding into Merton as well: The Lib Dems surged into second there this time around, and have been gaining there for a while.

[DL]

I guess I'm just curious why the LibDems can do so well in SW London but they are dead as a doornail in NW and SE corners of London which are very blue. What sorts of people decide to live in the SE rather than the SW?

[Oryxslayer]

I guess I'm just curious why the LibDems can do so well in SW London but they are dead as a doornail in NW and SE corners of London which are very blue. What sorts of people decide to live in the SE rather than the SW?

To oversimplify it, the corners are still somewhat extensions of their neighbors, and have yet to be subsumed fully by the city. The SE is like Essex & Kent - it voted for Brexit to give you an idea of it's priorities; the NE is on the edge between Thurrock, the city, etc.

[Tintrlvr]

I guess I'm just curious why the LibDems can do so well in SW London but they are dead as a doornail in NW and SE corners of London which are very blue. What sorts of people decide to live in the SE rather than the SW?

To oversimplify it, the corners are still somewhat extensions of their neighbors, and have yet to be subsumed fully by the city. The SE is like Essex - it voted for Brexit to give you an idea of it's priorities; the NE is on the edge between Thurrock, the city, etc.

There are some good posts in the UK by-elections thread about why the Lib Dems weren't trying in Old Bexley and Sidcup/why it was so Brexity despite being in London that would be enlightening on this topic if someone can dig them up.

[JimJamUK]

I guess I'm just curious why the LibDems can do so well in SW London but they are dead as a doornail in NW and SE corners of London which are very blue. What sorts of people decide to live in the SE rather than the SW?

The outer SE London is ‘working class done good’ territory. Labour had a substantial vote there until about the 1960s, but the area has largely trended Conservative for many decades now. It tends to be very pro-Brexit, had a very good UKIP vote, and in the 2000s had many Labour-BNP swing voters on the peripheral council estates. It’s mostly very white and to some extent a bit ‘white flighty’.

While the likes of Richmond can be viewed as an extension of wealthy and educated inner west London, SE London is more suburban/exurban with lots of people who culturally identify with Kent. The Lib Dem’s did have some strength in the past in Orpington and currently have a few councillors in Bromley, but it’s Labour who come 2nd in general elections. There’s been some demographic change on the edges eg; in Penge, Bromley, Thamesmead, but SE London is largely the area of London that will be voting Conservative to the last.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A lot of senior civil servants and other public administrators live in that part of London, as do many lawyers and BBC employees. Contrary to what you might often hear, these aren't very 'Labour' groups at all (there's a minority that leans that way, of course, and others who are open to voting so for tactical reasons - or just for the right sort of candidate), but for over fifty years now they have - collectively; on average - often been sceptical of the Conservative Party, which has routinely been seen as hostile to the liberal norms that matter a lot to them. They're somewhat balanced out in Richmond proper (particularly further north; towards Barnes, as has been noted) by people who work in finance and who are much less bothered by such things (and are also paid a lot more), but enough of them have become quite enraged by Brexit (people like this might well end up as the last people to still be voting on the issue as the years roll forwards) that it has put the Conservatives on a very sticky wicket in the area, at least for the time being. The other thing is that most wards in this part of London are quite swingy between the two relevant parties, which means that when one does well they tend to run the board.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The outer SE London is ‘working class done good’ territory.

Though, and for a long time now, often in a 'well I seem myself as such because my (sometimes 'great-' now) grandfather was born in Rotherhithe' manner.

[Blair]

I've long wondered this too.  I think it's very middle class and very "white English."  Why the aversion to Tories there?

To put it crudely it’s because of their values; Brexit and the aftermath of it has basically hollowed out the Conservative vote completely.

Its middle class but it’s still largely managerial and public sector jobs (GPS, head teachers, mid to high ranking civil servants) rather than the obscenely wealthy you see in other parts of London.

"Brexit" is too simple an explanation; this area has been strong for the Lib Dems and their predecessors for 30+ years (the SDP-Liberal Alliance first won control of Richmond council in 1986, e.g., and the Lib Dems first won control of Kingston council in 1994).

The description of the area as more managerial and public sector isn't wrong, though. The Southwest is just where the wealthy intelligentsia of London have gathered for a very long time. There are of course plenty of other wealthy pockets of London, but the bankers and heirs of Chelsea or the small-business-owners of Bromley vote quite differently from the lawyers and professors of Richmond.

This pattern can be observed more or less universally in wealthy democracies; even in the US where the Republicans are quite weak in cities generally, wealthy urban voters who are higher on the education spectrum are clearly distinct from those that have only college degrees or (of course) no college education.

These seats still had a relatively strong Conservative floor and ofc went Conservative at GEs in 2010 and 2015- Brexit very much killed off a large part of their vote.

[JimJamUK]

The outer SE London is ‘working class done good’ territory.

Though, and for a long time now, often in a 'well I seem myself as such because my (sometimes 'great-' now) grandfather was born in Rotherhithe' manner.

Yes, and contrary to the logic underpinning the original ‘Red Wall’ thesis, having a great grandad who had an industrial job doesn’t make you infinitely more likely to vote Labour.

[YL]

Cambridgeshire and Peterborough:



Grey wards (all of Fenland and East Cambs districts and a few Peterborough wards, mostly the rural part of the old Soke) didn't vote.  Turquoise shades in a couple of places are localist parties.

[bore]

A telling detail about the kind of place that part of London is is that the Labour candidate got only 1515 votes in the 2016 Richmond Park by election, even though at the time the CLP had over 1600 members.

[afleitch]

On the topic of capitals, something else I mentioned on Bizarro Atlas; the Conservative vote share in Edinburgh of 17.5% was the lowest since 1970 (before the current local government existed) back when the Progressives were still a force.

Something lost in otherwise 'could have been worse' results.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

Aspire only needed 37% of the vote to get a majority of seats. The Bengali population may only be about 1/3 of the borough, but it has very high turnout in the right circumstances (Tower Hamlets had the highlight turnout in the 2014 mayoral election concurrent EU elections in London, when on paper it should have had one of the lowest). Rahman may also have some sympathy in other Muslim communities (but I certainly can’t see him getting any of the white vote, especially in Canary Wharf).

Regarding the white vote, i'm hearing that apparently he did get some of their votes due to a promise to change some hated traffic regulation.

[King of Kensington]

I guess I'm just curious why the LibDems can do so well in SW London but they are dead as a doornail in NW and SE corners of London which are very blue. What sorts of people decide to live in the SE rather than the SW?

Class.  West is more affluent, east more working class and that pattern I think applies pretty strongly if imperfectly throughout London.  Lib Dems are a very middle class party.

[King of Kensington]

The liberal minded middle class in North London are more Labour than in South London it seems - I'm guessing it's because it's more of an income and ethnic mix and Labour is a contender in those constituencies.  Duverger's Law at work. 

[YL]

A Labour councillor's letter to a defeated Green in Enfield:

https://twitter.com/sophiejdalston/status/1523753585984503808

[EastAnglianLefty]

I would be cautious about predicting big Lib Dem gains at the next election. They have done well in local elections before and then fell flat on their faces at the general election soon after. Their current big gains are in the context of polling below their 2019 general election performance (and for most of this Parliament they were polling quite a bit lower), which doesn’t suggest much success will be found outside of places where they have established themselves as the clear and credible non-Conservative challenger and targeted their resources fairly narrowly.

It's worth noting that the Lib Dems seem to have been incredibly successful at hoovering up the ABC vote in these elections. Which offers them a lot of potential in bits of the country (chiefly areas where they were competitive in the 90s and 2000s) but won't be as useful in places where they're starting from a very distant third.

[CumbrianLefty]

In funny news a newly elected Hartlepool councillor has resigned 24 hours after being elected because of an assault allegation.

They have now apparently "un-resigned" with the predictable hilarity ensuing.

[H. Ross Peron]

Jacobin analysis of the UK local elections leaves much to be desired

https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1523664092296269824

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Jacobin analysis of the UK local elections leaves much to be desired

https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1523664092296269824

The Jacobin praising a corrupt, sectarian ballot-stuffer who ran on giving more freedom to driver is remarkably in character for them and much of the western "new"left.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Looking forward to the Jacobin piece praising Eric Adams soon!

[YL]

I would be cautious about predicting big Lib Dem gains at the next election. They have done well in local elections before and then fell flat on their faces at the general election soon after. Their current big gains are in the context of polling below their 2019 general election performance (and for most of this Parliament they were polling quite a bit lower), which doesn’t suggest much success will be found outside of places where they have established themselves as the clear and credible non-Conservative challenger and targeted their resources fairly narrowly.

It's worth noting that the Lib Dems seem to have been incredibly successful at hoovering up the ABC vote in these elections. Which offers them a lot of potential in bits of the country (chiefly areas where they were competitive in the 90s and 2000s) but won't be as useful in places where they're starting from a very distant third.

It won't be, but I don't think that's a problem.  There are plenty of seats they could plausibly target based on either a clear second in 2019 (starting with the like of Esher & Walton or South Cambridgeshire) or having held in the relatively recent past; indeed I think there are enough that they could spread themselves too thin among those alone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On elections having consequences, Birmingham edition: Labour picking up a bunch of seats in peripheral estate wards while losing Aston has meant that the incumbent Labour group leader (widely held to be a dead man walking before the election) has been re-elected.