Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Holmes]

Who was that one PA poster who said he'd leave for the year if Ciattarelli won? This could be a SirWoodbury moment.

They can always pull a SirWoodbury and just not leave.

[Big Abraham]

TMac not to concede and not to speak again for the rest of the night. Disgraceful.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Alexandria is 94% in now and the statewide margin is starting to stablize.

[TheReckoning]

I did the math, there are roughly 350k votes outstanding, and Youngkin is 117K ahead. Meaning that in order to lose, for every vote that Youngkin gets from now on, McAuliffe has to get 2. Not impossible, but definitely not likely.

I will admit this race has taken me by surprise.

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455724276846374915?s=20

     This is a good point. NJ-GOV by all rights should be a comfortable D win. Even though Murphy likely pulls it out, it is a bad sign for it to be close.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Not over folks - not at all.

Only on Atlas would you have people saying this 2 hours after the race has been called. lmao

By one Twitter pundit.

Decision Desk called it.. and Wasserman is gold standard.

Atlas users coping are not.

Ok, I stand corrected. Some Twitter people.
The networks haven't.

I trust Wasserman more than a network.

[BigSerg]

The Washington Post

[MillennialModerate]

Rare for me to not be negetive but what is the alarmist about NJ?

I know 51% is in but almost all of it is GOP. So shouldn’t the remaining 49% be overwhelmingly Dem?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I think this will go down to Virginia Beach absentees. If they are pro-D enough T-Mac could actually be favored.
Still not uncalling it but I might do so if the margin is close enough.

Nah. The shift among literally every demographic datapoint was way too uniform for an anomaly like that. No group in particular shifted towards Youngkin by an unusual amount.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455693099062153217

[GALeftist]

Who was that one PA poster who said he'd leave for the year if Ciattarelli won? This could be a SirWoodbury moment.

Murphy is still going to win, it's just going to be narrower than had been thought.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455723707628929025?s=20

Looks like 50-50 according to the forecast.

Huh? It appears like 53-46 GOP

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I am typing this right now, Youngkin barely has a 130K lead over T.M.A. and 13% of the vote still needs to be counted.

Sure, but where are the remaining votes going to come from? All signs are pointing to a 2-3 point for Youngkin.

Believe most the remaining votes are EVs where assumption is that they might well roll something like 80% Tmac?

Believe that would be the math theory there....

Historically VA has had extreme anti-D counting bias. It could happen. Remember, assuming 3 million votes, 10% is 300,000 votes. T-Mac is behind 120,000 votes.
He only needs to win the remaining vote by that margin to win.

[Wormless Gourd]

I was absolutely off on VA-Gov and I will eat my hat on that one. Usually I'm bullish on Republican chances post-Trump but thought Youngkin winning was too good to be true.
The GOP sweep of Virginia's government and scare in NJ gov are more then about just CRT, and Biden's cruddy approvals have finally materialized in election results.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

89-90% of the vote has been counted in Virginia rn

[Buzz]

My Braves are about to make this a perfect night

[omar04]

The black-haired girl to McAuliffe's left looks like she's about to cry.

Wait, NSV is a girl?

Are you trying to make sure you mention NSV on each page of the thread? It's getting a bit weird.

Well, he made fun of me and attacked me personally throughout this election

It would be a bit hypocritical to spam about how he was wrong in that case.

The black-haired girl to McAuliffe's left looks like she's about to cry.

Wait, NSV is a girl?

Are you trying to make sure you mention NSV on each page of the thread? It's getting a bit weird.

NSV already made sure to have several post on the other 200+ pages, just making sure he stays relevant like he wanted!

Are you bigserg or is that just poor context?

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455726062466473986?s=20

[NYSforKennedy2024]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455726062466473986?s=20

A well-deserved night across the nation for the GOP.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Youngkin just gained around 4000 votes in the latest update with 91-92% of the vote counted.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[snip]

That comment was based off WA Post having VA Beach being so little reporting. But fair point.

[TheTide]

Lol, Maccy T giving a speech in the Nixon 1960 tradition.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DDNN CALLING IT FOR YOUNGKIN

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Youngkin just gained around 4000 votes in the latest update

Seems to have been the last of VA Beach?

[GALeftist]

My Braves are about to make this a perfect night

The Braves, at least, we can agree on.

[Buzz]

Did Quinnipiac trash their final poll bc it had T-Mac up big?  Probably a good idea for their already terrible reputation.