NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/22/us/elections/results-nevada-caucus.html NYT results page

No Needle this time

They don't even have a precinct map, just counties (which are useless for obvious reasons). Pathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The ideal scenario would be both Biden and Pete unviable, but alas, that seems to be too much to hope for.

I'd settle for just Pete being unviable. Biden got screwed with delegate allocation in IA and NH, while Pete ended up with a lot more delegates than he should have. It's only fair now that he gets screwed by the rules.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Most up-to-date popular vote results, per CNN (first round / second round):

Bernie 34.4% / 40.6%
Biden 17.5% / 18.7%
Pete 15.9% / 18.1%
Warren 13.2% / 11.7%
Klob 9.7% / 7.3%
Steyer 8.9% / 3.6%

Klobuchar loses surprisingly little from realignment, suggesting that her support is highly concentrated in specific precincts where she does well enough to be viable. By contrast, Steyer's vote is more spread out and he gets obliterated by the threshold.

I guess it makes sense that Bernie gains so much from realignment, given that most transfers come from Warren (who's similar ideologically) and Steyer (who was going for similar demographics). Presumably the Klobuchar transfers are the ones boosting Pete.

[Antonio the Sixth]

No update from CNN, NYT or the NVDP itself in a while. I guess we won't be getting any more results tonight.

Oh well. I guess 50% of the results in by midnight is better than 0% of the results in by midnight.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Remember the countless amount of ink, text, and verbiage that was spread about muh culinary union over the past week?

The pundits are stuck in 1972 for more reasons than just the McGovern comparisons.

Turns out union workers are human beings with brains and the ability to figure out on their own which candidate actually stands for them, rather than mindless drones to be programmed by their leadership. Shocking!

[Antonio the Sixth]

No new results update since early this morning. What the f**k is happening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://nevadacaucusresults.com/

New dump of results.
Buttigieg now at 13.7% in statewide delegates, so not viable.

I'm still seeing the old results (1266 precincts).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Their site seems to have strong cache, so, you need to refresh cache too (usually Shift+ Refresh button on most browsers).

Thanks. I can see it now.

So, since this is updating at an Iowa-esque pace now, might as well take a look at how this most recent batch broke down. Doing only CCDs because I'm lazy:

Bernie 51.7%
Biden 24.6%
Pete 8.7%
Warren 7.3%
Steyer 5.7%
Klob 1.6%

So, even relative to the rest of Clark, this was an exceptionally good batch for Bernie and a bad one for Pete. Here's hoping there's more like it to come.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Latest batch CCDs:

Bernie 45.6%
Biden 21.3%
Pete 13.4%
Warren 10.8%
Steyer 5.3%
Klob 3.6%

Slightly less good for Bernie, but not by much. Pete still far behind.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of the 261 precincts left:
- 79 are in Clark (6% of the county total)
- 107 are in Washoe (19%)
- 75 are in the rurals (27%)

So what's left will probably be a bit worse for Bernie and Biden, and a bit better for Pete and Warren. Let's see by how much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current results breakdown, to get a sense of what to expect.

Clark:
Bernie 48.7%
Biden 24.4%
Pete 11.8%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 4.1%
Klob 2.2%

Washoe:
Bernie 44.3%
Biden 7.8%
Pete 17.3%
Warren 17.2%
Steyer 3.6%
Klob 9.8%

Rurals:
Bernie 35.9%
Biden 8.7%
Pete 25.0%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 10.9%
Klob 10.8%

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we're not getting the last 12% today, huh?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Meh, I can live with my second choice being the nominee.  Also, caucuses are dumb.

Welcome on board, comrade!

[Antonio the Sixth]

The caucuses were rigged against Pete, the DNC is secretly in loops with Rose Twitter!!!   

You're not funny.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So we're not getting the last 12% today, huh?

I was wrong!! Well, we got 8 of those 12% today. 182 more precincts reported (half of them from Washoe, the rest equally split between Clark and the rurals).

Here's what the CCDs for that batch looked like:
Bernie 43.2%
Pete 17.3%
Biden 13.7%
Warren 12.7%
Klob 8.2%
Steyer 4.4%

The delegate breakdown remains unchanged, 24-9-3. However, Bernie is now very close to netting another PLEO delegate from Biden. If the next batch is also subpar for Biden, it could shift to 25-8-3.

There are just 79 precincts left. 30 of them are in Clark (2.4%), 16 in Washoe (2.9%), and a whole 33 in the rurals (11.7%). I guess that means Bernie's share will again go down a notch, but Biden's will decline even more.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final batch of CCDs:
Bernie 45.6%
Pete 25.9%
Biden 12.6%
Steyer 6.9%
Warren 5.7%

Not too bad for Bernie, given that the rurals were hugely overrepresented in this sample. Really bad batch for Biden (as pointed out above, almost to the point of making him lose a delegate). Good for Pete, but obviously too little too late. Bad for Warren, and cost her any chance of reaching viability in CD2. So the delegate apportionment stays the same.


Here's the full breakdown (showing only candidates over 10%).

Statewide
Bernie 46.8%, 5.59 (6) at large, 3.49 (3) PLEO
Biden 20.2%, 2.41 (2) at large, 1.51 (2) PLEO
Pete 14.3%, Non-viable

CD 1
Bernie 59.4%, 3.63 (4)
Biden 22.4%, 1.37 (1)

CD 2
Bernie 41.7%, 4.07 (4)
Pete 19.7%, 1.93 (2)
Warren 14.3%, Non-viable
Klob 10.9%, Non-viable

CD 3
Bernie 42.8%, 3.16 (3)
Biden 19.5%, 1.44 (2)
Pete 19.0%, 1.40 (1)
Warren 13.4%, Non-viable

CD 4
Bernie 43.2%, 3.57 (4)
Biden 29.4%, 2.43 (2)
Pete 11.8%, Non-viable

So yeah, 24-9-3 is how it ends, barring a recount.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternative scenarios with proportional allocation.

Using D'Hondt (DNC uses Largest Remainder):
Bernie 26
Biden 7
Pete 3
Bernie gains two delegates from Biden (one in the PLEOs, and one in CD 3).

Viability threshold at 10% (results are the same with LR or D'Hondt):
Bernie 21 (loses a delegate in CD 2, 4 and AL)
Biden 7 (loses a delegate in CD 3 and PLEO)
Pete 5 (gains a delegate in CD 4, AL and PLEO; loses a delegate in CD 2)
Warren 2 (gains a delegate in CD 2 and 3)
Klob 1 (gains a delegate in CD 2)

All delegates awarded statewide (15% threshold):
Bernie 25
Biden 11

All delegates awarded statewide (10% threshold):
Bernie 21
Biden 9
Pete 6

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks!

Here's the breakdown of all three counts for Clark, Washoe, and the rest of the state.

Clark
Bernie 35.42% 1A, 42.79% 2A, 48.98% CCD
Biden 20.06% 1A, 23.89% 2A, 24.27% CCD
Pete 14.36% 1A, 15.36% 2A, 12.00% CCD
Warren 11.98% 1A, 10.03% 2A, 8.49% CCD
Steyer 8.81% 1A, 3.52% 2A, 4.09% CCD
Klob 7.63% 1A, 3.95% 2A, 2.13% CCD
Others 1.74% 1A, 0.47% 2A, 0.05% CCD

Washoe
Bernie 32.82% 1A, 37.22% 2A, 44.19% CCD
Pete 16.55% 1A, 19.90% 2A, 17.97% CCD
Warren 16.11% 1A, 17.79% 2A, 16.31% CCD
Klob 13.46% 1A, 13.76% 2A, 10.14% CCD
Biden 11.93% 1A, 8.23% 2A, 7.60% CCD
Steyer 7.95% 1A, 2.67% 2A, 3.73% CCD
Others 1.18% 1A, 0.43% 2A, 0.05% CCD

Rurals
Bernie 27.24% 1A, 32.36% 2A, 35.40% CCD
Pete 19.17% 1A, 24.49% 2A, 25.50% CCD
Klob 14.29% 1A, 14.61% 2A, 10.11% CCD
Biden 13.66% 1A, 9.67% 2A, 9.18% CCD
Steyer 13.13% 1A, 10.51% 2A, 10.50% CCD
Warren 11.04% 1A, 7.69% 2A, 8.92% CCD
Others 1.47% 1A, 0.67% 2A, 0.40% CCD

Interestingly, while Clark made up 67.1% and Washoe 22.5% of the vote in both counts, in terms of CCDs, Clark had 74.6% while Washoe had only 15%. Rural counties made up around 10.4% of all three counts. So Clark was overrepresented in the count that ultimately mattered for the final allocation, while Washoe was underrepresented. This contributed to padding Bernie's margin and hurting Pete's shot at viability.

[Antonio the Sixth]

All right, I said that was the last piece of data, but let me add in just a couple more random delegate simulations, for fun.


Using the initial vote:
Bernie 21
Biden 9
Pete 6
Pete qualifies for statewide delegates, taking 3 delegates there (2 from Bernie, 1 from Biden). Biden regains that delegate from Bernie in CD 4.

Using the initial vote, statewide (15% threshold):
Bernie 18
Biden 10
Pete 8

Using the initial vote, statewide (10% threshold):
Bernie 15
Biden 8
Pete 7
Warren 6


Using the final vote:
Bernie 20
Biden 9
Pete 6
Warren 1
Same as the initial vote, except Warren qualifies in CD 2 and snatches a delegate from Bernie.

Using the final vote, statewide (15% threshold):
Bernie 19
Biden 9
Pete 8

Using the final vote, statewide (10% threshold):
Bernie 16
Biden 8
Pete 7
Warren 5


All right, I'm done for real now.