Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

What are the chances the Ukraine army repels the attacks?

It depends.

The Russians could decided that things have become so costly it is not worth it.

If the Russians are 100% commited though, not a chance.

[pppolitics]

I wonder if the Ukranians are willing to do gurilla warfare to defend their homeland.

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https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1496717764807077891?s=20&t=1fWdcwsR...

To the surprise of no one, Belarus has joined in.

Of cause they are.

Belarus is a puppet state of Russia.

[pppolitics]

One thing you have to remember is that Ukranians are fightning for their homeland.

If they go all out guerrilla warfare, there is no way the Russians can win.

Even the US couldn't squash the Taliban because the latter are willing to die for their cause.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1496716707213332481

i despise china

If real sanctions are adopted, China stands to gain a lot of business since 10% of Russian imports come from the EU or US.

Russia becomes a vessel state for China.

Great for China, but for Russia.

[pppolitics]

Serious question:

Do the majority of the Russian speaking Ukranians actually like Putin?

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeacefulTreason/status/1496884659501748224

No idea who he is, but he does have a point.

No idea why Ukraine didn't do this far earlier.

Just to be clear, Ukranians were already allowed to bear arms.

They just weren't allowed to do so in public (in the streets).

[pppolitics]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

He wants to inflict so much pain on Russia that the Russians decide: Oh, never mind!  I don't really want Ukraine that badly.

[pppolitics]

So is this Zelensky's master plan? Arming the citizenry and expecting people to turn their cities and towns into all-out war zones? Do the users in this thread promoting this idea understand the misery and destruction that insurgencies bring?

I'm not saying the people of Ukraine should give up without a fight, but there has to be a limit to what you expect of civilian populations.

If my homeland were being destroyed by an invader I'd fight to the death to defend it. Freedom over capitulation.

A lot of posters on Atlas are Anywheres rather than Somewheres and have a different mindset on this.

Very easy for you to say given that your home isn't the one under threat. I certainly hope I'd do the same, but it's impossible to say for sure until one is put in such a situation. All I'm saying is that I don't blame the Ukrainian people if an insurgency doesn't materialize-- and anyone who does blame them is profoundly ignorant.

Ukraninan has been training a private (civilians) paramilitary force just for this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-training.html

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/JoshNBCNews/status/1496884570716835840?s=20&t=OZ9sTi02ZF...

It's like if your phyco dad sent you to kill your next door neighbor and you've never agree with the plan in the first place, you are probably not going to try very hard.

[pppolitics]

There will be more than enough Ukrainian insurgents.

Ukraine has been training civilians for this

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/26/world/europe/ukraine-russia-civilian-training.html

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/akarlin0/status/1496851833549111306?t=4exQQlREwR_bfqAxhL2V6A...

US doesn’t share its border with Iraq

Say the US sent troops into Mexico or Canada as part of a long-planned incursion. How long would it take for them to destroy all their air defenses?

Less than a day, if there is no consideration for civilians and US can just sent rockets everywhere.

[pppolitics]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

As I said earlier:

If your phyco dad sent you to kill your next door neighbor and you've never agree with the plan in the first place, you are probably not going to try very hard.

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497015621082624003

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https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1497227854786043923

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https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497225270310354949

What is Russia going to say?

"Oh, I accept your term of surrender"

[pppolitics]

What is Putin's long-term plan, right now? Does anyone have anything but a vague idea? He's pointed out what he doesn't like about the status quo, but what does he intend to do with Ukraine? Does Putin himself even know yet?

He wants to put in a puppet government

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497331262490648577

[pppolitics]

Russian health ministry documents show how Russia is preparing for casualties


I have been given a copy of document issued today by the Russian Ministry of Health which shows it is anticipating a major medical event in which doctors have to be drafted from across the country.

It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency and has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate and work.

The document from the Russian Ministry of Health is signed by the deputy health minister and dated today - February 25.

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187

It asks medical organisations to be ready "to be promptly involved in activities aimed at saving lives and preserving the health of people in Russia".

Russian medical institutions have been ordered by the Health Ministry to send a list no later than 6pm to the deputy health minister of "medical specialists and medical workers… indicating their full name, place of work, positions & contact details".

The document makes it clear these medics will be deployed somewhere and will be offered a "reimbursement of travel and accommodation expenses, as well as payment of labour is expected from funds from the Federal Centre of Medical Disasters".

[...]

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-02-25/russian-health-ministry-documents-show-how-russia-is-preparing-for-casualties

[pppolitics]

I wonder how things are going to sound at home now that all these Russian medical doctors are being sent in.

"Hi, mom. I am so tired today. I am treating a soldier with his legs blown off."

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1497567917294116869

[pppolitics]

Would it be legal for an American to go to Ukraine and fight? I heard Zelensky is providing arms to those who go to Ukraine to fight, I just want to know legality.

U.S. , 163 U.S. 632 (1896), the Supreme Court endorsed a lower court ruling that it was not a crime under U.S. law for an individual to go abroad for the purpose of enlisting in a foreign army

[pppolitics]

Would it be legal for an American to go to Ukraine and fight? I heard Zelensky is providing arms to those who go to Ukraine to fight, I just want to know legality.

U.S. , 163 U.S. 632 (1896), the Supreme Court endorsed a lower court ruling that it was not a crime under U.S. law for an individual to go abroad for the purpose of enlisting in a foreign army

Thank you! I’ll spend Spring Break (week after this) with my mother and discuss this, in the mean time I can probably plan travel for a city in Poland and then take transit to get to the border, but I have time to plan.

Do note, however, that if one accepts a promotion to serve as an officer in a foreign military, then they'll have implicitly consented to a relinquishing of their American citizenship, which the Court ruled in Afroyim v. Rusk (1967) as constituting legitimate constitutional grounds to involuntarily strip an American citizen of their citizenship under the 14th Amendment.

ALSO note: I am NOT a lawyer & what I have written does NOT in any way constitute legitimate legal advice, as it's meant for purely explanatory purposes only; seriously, guy, pls don't go get yourself killed based on what a rando netizen said.

…oh yikes, I do not want to lose my citizenship in the case I somehow survive, but maybe a paramilitary wouldn’t count as a foreign military? I could always talk to legal professionals first, I want to know the full consequences of what I am doing before I go.
As for dying, yeah I don’t want to die, but we all do have to die eventually. I’d rather go out for a good cause than of old age.

Here is official information

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/travel-legal-considerations/Advice-about-Possible-Loss-of-US-Nationality-Dual-Nationality/Loss-US-Nationality-and-Foreign-Military-Service.html