Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1496966529136881667

I know there have been a million and one different reports over the day of the situation at Hostomel, but there seems to be an emerging consensus among people in the know that the Ukrainians have definitely taken it and routed the VDV. A heroic tale — more than anything this could be a hugely symbolic moment and morale victory.

[Silent Hunter]

Which would be deeply embarrassing for the VDV.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One interesting question would be how much of Russia forces massed at the border have been deployed in battle?

That's perhaps even the million dollar question. I would not be surprised if some were being held in reserve.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Ukraine seems so far to be putting up surprisingly strong resistance, and the Russian military is not performing impressively. Hats off to the brave defenders of Ukraine. Those of us in other countries should urge our governments to do everything we can to support them in defending themselves from unprovoked aggression.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1496966529136881667

I know there have been a million and one different reports over the day of the situation at Hostomel, but there seems to be an emerging consensus among people in the know that the Ukrainians have definitely taken it and routed the VDV.

So a pretty extreme cucking that makes A Bridge Too Far look good.

[Storr]

Ukraine seems so far to be putting up surprisingly strong resistance, and the Russian military is not performing impressively. Hats off to the brave defenders of Ukraine. Those of us in other countries should urge our governments to do everything we can to support them in defending themselves from unprovoked aggression.

Indeed, Kharkiv hasn't fallen (only 30 km from the border), Sumy may have or is still seeing fighting , and the airborne attack at Homostel seems to have probably been a failure for the Russians. The most worrying area for Ukraine at the moment seems to be in the South. Russia has already claimed it has reopened the North Crimean Canal. So, if this report is correct it is good news: https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1496970026099818497?s=20&t=zYvRnU...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraine seems so far to be putting up surprisingly strong resistance, and the Russian military is not performing impressively. Hats off to the brave defenders of Ukraine. Those of us in other countries should urge our governments to do everything we can to support them in defending themselves from unprovoked aggression.

I'm only a lowly desk jockey in the bigger political machine of Berlin, but my job includes monitoring online comunications in order to file reports on what the voters think and want at any given time - provided I do not disregard it for being bullsh**t opinions. Since this morning there has been a significant increase in the demand for weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and I have reported that to the higher-ups. So, they're aware of the situation.

As for the first part of your post, the longer the Ukrainians manage to hold out, the higher the chance that dissent in Russia grows. Putin's best shot is that this is over as soon as possible.

[KaiserDave]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

[Silent Hunter]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

They're not really Slav squatters. They've got plenty of experience, including in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[The Free North]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

I get your point but 7 years into the war, the Ukrainian army is very well supplied and more than a capable fighting force. Not just some loose cannons with AKs.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

They're not really Slav squatters. They've got plenty of experience, including in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Slav squatters with plenty of experience are still Slav squatters, and good for them. It's an ancient and noble tradition.

[KaiserDave]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

I get your point but 7 years into the war, the Ukrainian army is very well supplied and more than a capable fighting force. Not just some loose cannons with AKs.

I know it's a joke. But it's still incredible that National Guard units beat the VDV.

[Middle-aged Europe]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

[The Free North]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

I get your point but 7 years into the war, the Ukrainian army is very well supplied and more than a capable fighting force. Not just some loose cannons with AKs.

I know it's a joke. But it's still incredible that National Guard units beat the VDV.

Oh I agree. They've more than held their own today. The longer this drags on, the worse it gets for Russia. The Russian Amry has been noticeably absent form any major urban centers thus far. I think they know what they risk in urban warfare.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

I think the biggest indicator as to how well Russia will eventually do is how many reports there are of Russian airplanes being shot down. Russia doesn't have the same qualms bombing cities as America does, and airplanes are the main means for them to do so.

While these victories Ukraine is getting are without a doubt impressive relative to expectations, it might still end up pretty badly for the country in the long run if Russia has to fight for this (likely) win.

Yes, I do consider a Ukrainian victory a very slim possibility at this stage. Uncertainty and all...

[Alcibiades]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

Absolutely — I think a huge factor in explaining the relative Ukrainian successes so far is the fact that they’re a hell of a lot more motivated to fight than the Russians.

[RINO Tom]

A thought I had at work: forget sanctions, how about a full embargo on trade with Russia?                  I know Europe won't entertain this idea in the slightest. But when it comes to the US, Russia's imports from the US are around 5% of total imports. Meanwhile the US has less than 1% of its imports come from the motherland. An American embargo on Russia would be easy for the US to weather, not so much for Russia.

Nothing short of military intervention is deterring Russia from doing whatever it wants, and this couldn’t be more obvious.

[Silent Hunter]

This isn't Iraq in 2003, that's for sure. The Iraqis weren't prepared to die for Saddam even if they weren't always fans of the US.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Seems like Ukraine is defending themselves pretty well. What are the chances of Vlady rage quitting and pulling his troops out?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

I think that may be the case. I imagine at least some of the troops are thinking to themselves: "what the hell are we doing this for in Ukraine of all countries? These are our friends, cousins, in some cases family, with whom we have much in common"

Many online communities of Russian speakers include many Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the same sort of way that online communities like this one (Atlas/TalkElections) includes people from many friendly countries, and Russian soldiers will have interacted in those communities. I have to imagine that experience makes it a lot harder to view Ukrainians as really being their enemy or as posing any sort of real legitimate/justified threat to Russia that they are protecting against.

[It’s so Joever]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Better parallel is the Winter War.

[Badger]

We probably lack the info needed to put a (likely) Russian defeat at Hostomel airport in a wider context. It's definitely good for Ukraine on net in terms of winning or losing this war, but it's not necessarily good enough for Ukraine. We shall see a more complete picture in due time.

Even the significant tactical successes that Ukraine is achieving are, in my opinion, striking, regardless of whether it is realistic to expect them to lead to any sort of immediate strategic conventional victory.

There is a marked contrast between e.g. the US/allied military performance in the First Gulf war, the 2nd Gulf War, and whatever you call what Russia is doing right now.

Russia should be able to eventually win the conventional part of the war (the occupation and potential insurgency being another phase and another matter), but this looks a lot more like a fight between semi-equal/competitive powers, not the sort of curbstomp that I think a lot of people were expecting.

Russia is showing surprising weakness. Unless they have something significant up their sleeves, this can't have been what Putin had hoped for when he put this into motion.

If Russia is having this much difficulty already, they may have a lot more difficulty if and win urban combat gets going.


And by the way, just because I really need to get it off my chest and feel like I really need to say this, F*** Putin.

Considering that the war doesn't seem to be that popular in Russia, is it possible that at least some Russian troops just don't put that much effort into it?

No. Soldiers fight for their buddies in the unit and their lives. Plus rigorous training to act as indeed. Political unpopularity won't affect morale after significant time, not 24 hours in.

Not to mention I question how unpopular the war really is. The demonstrations are relatively sparse, and the average Russian, happily brainwashed by uncontridicted state media, probably tends to share the nationalist "Russia is surrounded by enemies and must attack in self defense" mentality.

[Storr]

Checking up on flightradar24.com , there are now 4 USAF KC-135 Stratotankers circling near the Ukrainian border. All few out of US bases in Germany. Two are over southeastern Poland (above Tarnow) and two are over Northern Romania. There were only two last night when I went to bed (01:00-02:00 Eastern). I have no idea if they're actually refueling anything up there or are a show of force.