Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

All ultimatums given by the Spanish government before they activate article 155 have expired. So article 155 will be activated and the government in Madrid will take back control of certain competences for a while.

However, this won't happen until Saturday, when the government will go to the Senate and vote a proposal for applying article 155 which requires an absolute majority (not a problem, PP alone already has one, and they also have PSOE and Cs support, meaning that 80% of the Senate is in favour)

In the mean time Puigdemont has threatened to vote the declaration of independence and actually do it for real this time.

As for how this is affecting parties, Podemos seems to be stuck at 17-18%. PP and PSOE have dropped and Cs has dramatically increased to the point where it's now tied with Podemos for third place. I guess Podemos is getting their base of people who want a soft response but nobody else, while Cs is getting hardliners from PSOE and PP. That poll is not an outlier.

[Former President tack50]

We finally have details about how article 155 will work. The government will basically fire Puidemont and his entire cabinet, taking control of Catalonia's institutions temporarily (the generalitat won't be dissolved technically, but it will become an empty puppet). The government will call a snap election in 6 months or less.

Puigdemont still has some time to react as the Senate won't vote on this until the 27th. In fact many are saying that he should call a parliamentary vote and declare independence on Monday.

As for the Senate vote, it will get roughly 80% of the Senate in favour. The expected result is this:

Yea (216): PP*+PSOE+Cs

Nay (46): Podemos+ERC+PDECat+PNV+Bildu+Compromís

Unsure (4): ASG (party of a "cacique" in La Gomera)+CC+NCa

* PP includes the senators from UPN in Navarra, Foro in Asturias and PAR in Aragon.

[Helsinkian]

What will happen if the independence supporters win the new election as well?

[Former President tack50]

Nobody really knows. I guess the current Catalan government stays in place. It would be a bad outcome though, as they would likely keep pushing for independence, which would lead to article 155 being activated again, new elections again, etc

[Former President tack50]

Yesterday we thought that Puigdemont actually might surrender and call a snap election but in the end he refused because Rajoy wouldn't give amnesty to the leaders of the 2 largest civil society lobbying groups for independence and immunity to Puigdemont and his cabinet or something like that. What a shame

Anyways today 2 important things regarding Catalonia happened.

First, the Catalan parliament declared independence, for real this time, not just 8 seconds. The vote went as expected, civil servants saying it was illegal, unionists boycotting the vote, etc. The final result was:

Yes: 70
No: 10
Blank: 2

The vote was by secret ballot, so we can't really know for sure how many defectors there were on either side. JxSí+CUP have 72 MPs while CQSP has 11 so we can assume that there were a few defectors on both sides.

The other weird thing is that the actual independence declaration was not in the law itself but on the preamble, which almost never has actual effects, but it's still part of the law. Not much difference


Shortly after, the Spanish senate finally passed article 155. The end result was as follows:

Yes: 214 (PP+PSOE+Cs+CC-AHI+Foro+UPN)
No: 47 (Podemos+PDECat+ERC+PNV+Bildu+Compromís)
Abstaining: 1 (NCa)

And right as I write this, Rajoy has activated article 155 for real. This means the Puigdemont and his cabinet have been fired, the Catalan devolved police placed under direct control from the Spanish ministry of the interior, and the Catalan government are basically puppets of the Spanish government. A snap election in Catalonia has been called for the 21st of December, the earliest date allowed by the law (a snap election needs to be called at least 2 months in advance).

Terrible situation all around, literally the worst case "trains crashing" scenario. Today is a sad day in Spain's history

[Angel of Death]

The only sensible solution to me seems to be to turn Spain into a proper federal country.

[jaichind]

I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.

[Former President tack50]

I have to imagine the recent events would push PSOE support to both Podemos and PP/C in non-Catalonia Spain.  Would be eager to see post-Oct 27 polls.

Well, we finally have some Catalan polls for the December 21st election after everything that has happened (we have actually had them for a while but they were outdated the moment they came out). The first poll taken after Puigdemont left to Belgium has this result:


 
Secessionists still have a bare majority of 1 (68-67). Interestingly, PDECat's candidate might not be in favour of unilateral independence, but instead switching back to the positions of CiU before 2012, while defending a referendum with approval from Spain like Podemos!

The only declared candidate thus far, is Santi Vila, former regional minister of business (2017), culture (2016-2017) and territory and sustainability (2012-2016) has those positions. In fact he actually resigned shortly before the declaration of independence. Then again he might not remain as the only candidate for long, or maybe he'll run unopposed, who knows?

In fact PDECat is not the only party with an internal schism. Pablo Iglesias has "article 155-ed" his party's branch in Catalonia and forced a referendum on whether they should go in coalition with only Ada Colau's party and allies. This is because their regional leader there, Dante Fachín, is actually in favour of independence and wanted an alliance with ERC

And of course it's still not clear whether CUP will contest the election or not. They say that it will be decided by the party membership.

As for general election polls, not many yet though the general direction seems to be Cs up, everyone else going down a bit.

Also, just realized that if Catalonia actually goes out to vote on December 21st, the election will actually be held on a Thursday instead of a Sunday! This might depress turnout though I think workers are allowed by law to have at least 2 hours free at work to be able to go out and vote.

Now, there have been elections held on workdays, but they aren't common, especially not in our recient history. The first 3 general elections (1977, 1979, 1982) were indeed held on workdays (Wednesday for the first 2, Thursday for 1982). And the 1976, 1978 and 1986 referendums were also held on a workday. And even Catalonia's first regional election (1980) was held on a Thirsday indeed

But outside Spain's early democratic history there aren't many examples. The 2006 Catalan election was held on a Wednesday, but that was a public holiday (November 1st, all saints day) so it doesn't really count.

Seems like an odd move but apparently Rajoy preferred to call the election on a workday rather than wait a little longer.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

If only Susana Diaz had won...

[MaxQue]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.

And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

[Mike88]

CIS (Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas) poll from October:



Poll conducted between 2 and 11 October. Polled 2,487 voters. MoE of 2.0%.

[Zinneke]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.

And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

^wtf

On a side note we had a host of Catalan mayors march into the European Quarter to hold some speeches, and Addidas have released the Spain World Cup kit with the Republican flag on it, triggering the entire Spanish Right-wig twittersphere, and according to the Spanish football federation "people right from the top".




Also apparently Vox is given a seat in some nationwide polls? I thought they faded to irrelevance? Who is leading them these days?

[Former President tack50]

Hmm, I wonder if a PSOE-C's coalition with Podemos supply is at all possible.

1. C's and Podemos are fundamentally opposed over the Catalan issue. C's probably prefers Article 155 to the current events, while Podemos is fine with the Catalan govt holding a referendum. If the unstable Spanish government is brought down over Catalonia, this government won't come into being.

2. The poll posted with seat projections had PP+C's having a confident majority, far removed from the troubles of the current government. That would be the government forming in the event of new elections.

If only Susana Diaz had won...

If Susana Diaz won, the three major parties would be PP, C and Podemos. C does already have the centrist centralist electorate and electors usually prefer the original.

And the current leader is pretty much a Podemos rep.

^wtf

On a side note we had a host of Catalan mayors march into the European Quarter to hold some speeches, and Addidas have released the Spain World Cup kit with the Republican flag on it, triggering the entire Spanish Right-wig twittersphere, and according to the Spanish football federation "people right from the top".




Also apparently Vox is given a seat in some nationwide polls? I thought they faded to irrelevance? Who is leading them these days?

Yeah, the reaction to the Spanish shirt on the world cup has been pretty funny.

And here's the actual poll where VOX gets a seat:



I personally think it's an outlier (not just VOX getting a seat out of nowhere but also Cs breaking 20%), but maybe its findings will be confirmed later who knows.

As for who is leading them, shortly after narrowly failing to get seats in the 2014 EU elections, their leader, was replaced with former MP in the Basque regional parliament Santiago Abascal. He has also tried to steer the party in a different direction, making it more of a Spanish AfD or PVV, adopting very harsh rethoric against muslim inmigration and terrorism. They also want to completely abolish the comunidades autonomas and are extremely hardline on Catalonia.

While they did indeed fade to irrelevance for the most part, for all what's worth they have a large following in Spain's largest forum board: Forocoches. Of course, Forocoches is basically the Spanish 4chan so it's no surprise they win big there. For all what's worth their latest horrible poll has:

Cs: 32.9%
VOX: 21.3%
PP: 9.0%
PSOE: 3.8%

So yeah, definitely nothing remotely reliable. In fact VOX used one of their polls as proof that they were doing good in the 2016 election and got mocked in the internet.

For all what's worth though the "others" category has been slowly rising in most polls so maybe they are indeed right, but we can't really know who is in there. It could have also been PACMA or even UPyD (another outlier gave them like 3% this August but no other polls confirmed that so I guess it was a junk poll).

If a new non nationalist party wants to get a seat, their number 1 priority should be to get at least 3% of the vote in either Madrid or Barcelona provinces, which basically guarantees that they'll get a seat. The lowest percentage with which a national party has received seats was UPyD in 2008 who got 1 seat with 1.19% of the vote nationally (3.7% in Madrid). And the highest with no seats was CDS in 1993, which got 1.76% of the vote nationally but narrowly missed the theshold in Madrid (got 2.99% of the vote, missing the threshold by 440 votes).

So depending on how well concentrated VOX's vote is, they might be able to get 1 seat with as low as 1.6% of the vote (what they got in the 2014 EU election).

[TheSaint250]

Is the threshold 2%?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The electoral system is constituency based, so there is no real threshold per se (I think there is a set threshold of three percent per constituency, but most of them are small constituencies with a higher effective threshold).

I'm going to pump for PACMA?

Also, the reason to oppose Diaz isn't just because of ideology, Bloomberg. The Southern barons are, erm, not good backers.

[Former President tack50]

Is the threshold 2%?

On paper: 3% at the constituency level.

In practice the threshold only really applies to Madrid and Barcelona provinces as every other place doesn't have enough seats for a party with 3% to get in. After Madrid and Barcelona (with more than 30 seats each) the next largest would be Valencia but that one only has 15 seats so to get a seat there you would need to be at around 5% or so.

The seats are distributed accorging to constituencies, not all of Spain. So in theory you could have a party winning the popular vote but getting less seats. That was a possibility between Podemos and PSOE in the run up to the 2016 election, some thought PSOE would get more seats but a lower popular vote percentage than Podemos. In the end they ended up winning both.

And as for PACMA, they got their best result in Barcelona (1.8% while they were at 1.2% nationally). In theory a good campaign could mean a seat for PACMA in Barcelona but it's highly unlikely.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the worst part is the senate, which is the world's worst system: bloc vote. IMO the wisest thing to do though would be to try and run joint candidates on an "abolish the senate" platform.

[DL]

If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

[MaxQue]

If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

No regional party would ever want to support a government with Citizens in.

[Former President tack50]

If PSOE and Citizens combined got over 175 seats (or close enough they could do a deal with some regional parties) - could they forma  government together and dispense with the need to accommodate PP and Podemos altogether? 

No regional party would ever want to support a government with Citizens in.

The Canarian parties would but they will almost certainly only get 1 seat from CC. NCa ran alongside PSOE last time so in any PSOE led coalition they'll support that

[TheSaint250]

Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672

[Lumine]

Ciudadanos at 22-23% and tied with PSOE, absolutely beautiful. Go Rivera!

[jaichind]

Is...is this real?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/929784107613212672

Wow ...

[TheSaint250]

I hope this poll isn’t an outlier. While I doubt that C’s can overtake PP, this shows that it will be a true driving force throughout Spanish politics at a higher level than ever before.