Spanish elections and politics

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.

From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

[RodPresident]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

[RodPresident]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.

From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)

But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

I think La Barceloneta swinging to ERC shows that the votes that some the CeC and Colau lost in this election went towards independence after the way Rajoy reacted. Barceloneta is still considered a more "Catalanist" district though. That would also explain how the actual number of votes for pro-independence parties increased, that and an increased turnout in rural areas for JxC for some reason.

I think a Spanish person will answer your second question better but I would hypothesise Barceloneta and Barcelona in general voted for Colau for reasons much more local than the separatist issue (tourism, social housing, housing speculation prices), and that being indepe or not was pretty irrelevant.

[swl]

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Why? From what I see it has a strong identity compatible with independetism. Also interesting to see that the Raval is the only district in the centre that put Cs in first position. Possible interpretation is that immigrants do not support independence.

[Tintrlvr]

I don't know how this will end, seriously.  

52.0% Anti-Independence (50.5 in 2015)
47.5% Pró Independence (47.8 )

Tack, in TVE i heard some guy saying that Catalonia doesn't have an electoral law. Is that true?

Are CeC really anti-independence?  Given a choice of joining forces with C PP or independence it might be a tossup I would think.

From what i've heard, CeC, or Podemos, are neither pro or anti independence. They also got punished for their lack of position.

That is my understanding as well. They are in favor of a referendum and opposed to direct rule, but also anti-independence. They have had leaders who are pro-independence, however, but the national party has prevented the local party from endorsing independence. It *might* be possible for the independence parties to get CeC on their side to hold yet another referendum, but I can't see why the central Spanish government would react differently to a new referendum anyway, which makes the whole idea a bit pointless. (Although strategically I think it would be the right approach for the Spanish government to support another referendum; this result makes it reasonably clear that a referendum with 80+% turnout would have a result somewhere between Quebec 1995 and Scotland 2014, and a failed referendum would take all of the wind out of the independence parties' sails.)

But for PP-C's the far this thing goes, better to them to retain hegemony in national politics. This will help them against national PSOE who'll have to appease their base in poorer autonomies (Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, Andalusia) and weaken Podemos who is being caught in this fight.

While this is true, I think PP and Cs are more genuinely centralist than strategically so.

[Former President tack50]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.

[Velasco]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

For the most part no, local politics aren't completely affected by constitutionalists vs secessionist fights, they seem to be mostly isolated from that. There are plenty of mixed deals, like for example Sant Cugat (PDECat-PSC) or Torredembarra (ERC-Podemos-PSC).

However there are many times when there are problems because of that issue. For example last month Colau expelled the PSC government councillors (with Podemos ruling alone now) because of PSC's support of article 155

I do think Colau will be reelected but it's true that she might have a hard time. But I can't see an alternative really. A right wing government led by PDECat seems even more unlikely (I don't think Puigdemont's success will trickle down), and I can't see anyone overtaking Colau either.

La Barceloneta is a popular neighbourhood with 'catalanist' leanings, not so different in that regard from neighbourhoods like Poble Nou and El Poble Sec. The best places for ERC in Barcelona fit this typology -they are mostly former villages annexed to Barcelona: Gràcia, Sants or Camp de l'Arpa. JxCat won in middle and upper-middle class neighbourhoods like Eixample or Sarrià. Cs performed astonishingly well in upper-class Pedralbes (above 50% in some precincts), as well in the poor Nou Barris and other impoverished peripheral neighbourhoods.

Local elections are different from general and regional elections and Catalans have a marked tendency to vote different parties depending on the election. Anyway I think that the bad result of CatComú-Podem evidently weakens Ada Colau.

Barcelona is not governed by Podemos and Ada Colau is not a Podemos member. The ruling force is Barcelona en Comú, the Ada Colau party. The BComú list incorporated people from ICV and Podem. Catalunya en Comú is the regional expansion of Colau's party; it's also the merger of BComú, ICV and EUiA (IU). The opposition of the former Podem leadership prevented the merger of that party into CatComú, so it was arranged a coalition between CatComú and Podem in the last minute.

[Former President tack50]

Apparently #Tabarnia is now trending topic in Spain. It refers to a hypothetical secession of the unionist areas of Catalonia, leaving a "Republic of Catalonia" with only the rural areas.



Commenting it just because it's funny, but the movement exists since 2013 and hasn't gone anywhere and I don't expect it to.

Decided to check the requirements and they'd need the support of the unelected provincial governments of Tarragona and Barcelona as well as 2/3 of all municipalities (many tiny seccessionist villages of 500 people) representing 50%+1 of all inhabitants in both provinces.

Either that or redrawing the map of provinces, something that was last done in 1927!

[FrancoAgo]

Tabarnia is too large comparating to this cart http://www.elmundo.es/grafico/cataluna/2017/12/21/5a3bbcd7468aeb2b4a8b45af.html

[Former President tack50]

I think they are using the Comarcas instead. This map is from the 2015 election but I guess it works for this one as well:

[Tintrlvr]

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

[parochial boy]

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

[Zinneke]

In any case I'm sure opinion would shift in Tabarnia after the independence of rump!Catalonia. Being geographically isolated from the rest of Spain would be quite economically disastrous for Barcelona and especially Tarragona (which is not the international powerhouse Barcelona is), especially if rump!Catalonia actually was not part of the EU as they postulate and thus would have border controls for any land travel between Tabarnia and the rest of Spain.

Yeah, this is more or less correct. Polling hypotheticals (which is more or less what is going on with regards to a hypothetical "Tabarnia") may be interesting for political junkies such as ourselves - but as long as the option remains purely hypotheical, any speculation is precisely that, speculation and nothing more...

Tabernia is not a serious political project, its a demonstration* that some political entrepreneurs believe in one set of legal and moral norms for a specific nation or identity tied to a nation, and another set for another people with a distinct identity of their own.

See also : The Brussels Periphery.


*by a group with links to Societat Civil Catalana, but thats another matter.

[Velasco]

"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 

[Tintrlvr]

"Tabarnia" is only a joke, a wisecrack that went viral after the December 21 elections. It's basically anti-independence people wanting to put a mirror in front of pro-independence people, in order to highlight how absurd are the separatist claims (in the view of those 'unionists', of course).

"Barcelona is not Catalonia" = "Catalonia is not Spain"
 

Fair enough, but the point being that "Tabarnia" doesn't want independence/separation from Catalonia (and would be unhappy with that result) regardless of how it votes on Catalan independence, so it's a meaningless comparison devoid of substance.

[Velasco]

Again: "Tabarnia" is a joke. In real life Barcelona and Tarragona don't want to leave Catalonia, but the point of this joke is that in a parallel universe there' s a separatist movement claiming that they are under the oppresion of rural Catalonia. They repeat point by point all the arguments of Catalan separatists (Spain is an oppresive state, steals our money, etcetera), but replacing "Spain" by "Catalonia". In the parallel universe in which Tabarnia is real, the comparison is meaningful.

(I can't believe this wisecrack needs an explanation)

[Former President tack50]

By the way, we have our first poll after the catalan election (technically done before it, between 7-14 of December, but whatever) and it predicts a 3 way tie!

Simple Lógica

PP 24.8%
PSOE 23.8%
Cs 22.8%
UP 16,3%
Others 12.3%

Approval ratings:



http://simplelogica.com/iop/iop17017_intencion_voto_popularidad_lideres.asp

Considering that this was done before the Catalan election, I wonder, if Cs will somehow replace PP as the main right wing force. I seriously doubt it but it's an interesting possibility.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

my boy Sanchez is hated by the people

[TheSaint250]

Tack, do you think Cs will remain this strong going into the next election?

[Former President tack50]

It's definitely way too early to tell. Remember that 1-2 months before the 2015 election Cs was also polling incredibly well and in the end they came in a distant 4th. Podemos was also polling extremely well in late 2014 and early 2015 (they even took the lead in several polls!) before falling hard.

Now, some of Cs drop can be attributed to a bad 2015 campaign on their part while Podemos ran a very good campaign. But still, things changed a lot in 2 months. The next election, is most likely 2 years or so ahead. Things can change a lot in that time.

If Cs plays their cards right, stops the "voting PP is the only useful vote" campaign and the like they might have a shot but it's hard. They generally poll well when the catalan separatist movement is the most important issue.

[TheSaint250]

Ok thank you!

[jaichind]

La Razon reports poll



Which has (diff from 2016 election)

PP        30.0 (-3.0)
PSOE    23.8 (+1.2)
UP        16.1 (-5.1)
C         18.8 (+5.7)

C a bit lower than some of the other polls in Nov and Dec

[Zinneke]

Nice map of Barcelona

http://www.lavanguardia.com/local/barcelona/20171223/433819814761/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-barcelona-barrios-vecinos.html

EDIT : Ara.cat's is better

https://www.ara.cat/eleccions21d/resultats-21D-Barcelona-seccions-censals_0_1928807264.html#rlabs=1%20p$1

It's fun that La Barceloneta is a ERC land... But seeing this map, Colau will have a hard time to be reelected. In local politics, can parties go over "Constitutionalist vs. Independentists" fight?

Just to revive this question, here is a poll showing ERC overtaking Colau in municipal elections.

https://twitter.com/bcn_ajuntament/status/948879979844112384/photo/1