2020 New York Redistricting

[GALeftist]

Hang on, NY-10 could be very interesting. Unless I'm wrong, both Nadler and Maloney are in 12 and Velazquez would either stay in 7 or move to 11 (Doesn't she live on the Red Hook waterfront?). So we should have an open seat covering all of Lower Manhattan, much of Brownstone Brooklyn, and Orthodox Borough Park.


Edit: God damn it, de Blasio's gonna run for this seat, isn't he?

https://twitter.com/bern_hogan/status/1526655757533446151

Bwahahahahaha

[GALeftist]

Why in God's holy name did Mondaire Jones decide to run in NY-10

[GALeftist]

Don't want to derail the thread but I really don't get why everyone is always obsessing over how sneaky the DeSantis map is or whatever. Do you guys seriously think that you couldn't convince a layperson that a map that gives Republicans >70% of the seats with <60% of the votes is gerrymandered, especially with that atrocious FL-14? It's not as bad as it could be but it's hardly some work of art.

The article does say it might be an uphill battle to confirm LaSalle on the floor, but if it is clear that the nomination is doomed on the floor, why not bring it to the floor, so I am not buying that premise.

Well it was already defeated in committee. Why would D leadership bring it to the floor unless forced? That would inherently weaken the power of the committee which is not in their interest. Plus, it could be the case that a court order to hold a floor vote could make more Democrats turn against LaSalle.

[GALeftist]

So here’s how I understand it:

There was a 5-2 decision to strike down the legislatures maps and a 4-3 decision to appoint a special master to draw new ones. My strong prior is that Hochul is planning to nominate a progressive to replace DiFiore, in the majority in both decisions. That leaves Troutman, who was the one vote who swung previously. I really do wish that people would quit saying that the legislature needs to make the maps prettier; I’m sure it wouldn’t hurt, but that wasn’t the issue with Troutman last time, in fact she explicitly refused to call the maps a partisan gerrymander. What she did say was that the legislature didn’t follow the correct procedure in this case. Last time, the commission deadlocked and sent two maps to the legislature; I can’t even remember if those maps received votes. According to the constitution, the legislature is supposed to vote down two rounds of maps before making their own. I imagine that this time the legislature will be extremely careful to exactly follow the correct procedure.

Imo the motion Hochul and James filed is basically a slam dunk. Constitutionally the legislature is supposed to have a chance to redraw if maps are struck down and they weren’t given one.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1649096021174284288?s=20

Here's the new assembly maps that will go before the chamber for a vote in the future. The the important corollary in tweet is probably what to keep an eye one, cause the case that could undo the court map congressionally also could render this a dead letter.

It's pretty funny, though, because this commission map is more or less exactly the same as the current Dem-drawn map. Stakes are incredibly low here, but I'll be looking to this case to signal how Halligan and Troutman will rule on the congressional and state Senate case.

[GALeftist]

Sorry for the double post but:

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1649141122453700609

The New York Court of Appeals has dismissed plaintiffs' appeal of Nichols v. Hochul. This means that the legislature will draw the new Assembly districts rather than a special master, at least unless they get struck down again. Judge Halligan took no part. Pretty clear signal imo that Dems will get to try redistricting the congressional and State Senate maps again. Less clear on whether the Court will allow a gerrymander.

EDIT: Whoops, slightly misread; appeal was dismissed "upon the ground that the order appealed from
does not finally determine the proceeding within the meaning of the Constitution," so possibly not the end of the story?

[GALeftist]

In other news...

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1667302230788038658

No more judge shopping for NY Republicans. If the NYCoA gives the legislature another shot (big if), the NYGOP will have to sue in one of four very liberal counties to get the map overturned.

[GALeftist]

I actually think it's not really that big of a deal. It seems pretty silly that a judge elected by like 10,000 people in some random rural county gets to decide election law for the whole state. More to the point, though, the philosophy that liberals are working under here is that unilateral disarmament only incentivizes gerrymandering by the opposing side. Through that lens, making a NY gerrymander is inherently more fair because it maximizes the chances of reform if the GOP doesn't think they can have their cake and eat it too by overturning NY's gerrymander and leaving Texas's intact.

[GALeftist]

https://decisions.courts.state.ny.us/ad3/Decisions/2023/CV-22-2265.pdf

Plaintiffs in Hoffman v. NYSIRC prevail on appeal; the appellate division thinks that the commission should submit new maps which go back to the legislature. On it goes to the Court of Appeals.

[GALeftist]

https://decisions.courts.state.ny.us/ad3/Decisions/2023/CV-22-2265.pdf

Plaintiffs in Hoffman v. NYSIRC prevail on appeal; the appellate division thinks that the commission should submit new maps which go back to the legislature. On it goes to the Court of Appeals.

Do we expect it to succeed there? And if so, what's the next step, if any? Is that the last stop for this?

I believe:

1. The case will almost certainly be appealed to the Court of Appeals
2. If the CoA rules against plaintiffs, the status quo maps are in place through 2030
3. If the CoA declines to take the appeal or rules in favor of the plaintiffs, it falls to the NY State Independent Redistricting Commission to draw new maps
4. The IRC submits map 1 to the legislature; the legislature either approves or rejects it
5. Importantly, if the maps continue to be rejected, the IRC *must* submit three maps to the legislature. Previously, Judge Troutman concluded that failure to evaluate three IRC maps rendered the legislature's maps unconstitutional
6. If the legislature rejects three maps, they may amend the map and pass it with a 2/3 majority. This will require substantial caucus unity but seems likelier than not if it comes to it
7. That map will likely be sued for being a partisan gerrymander

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JeffWice/status/1683884918240161810

Republicans appeal the decision; first test of the new Wilson court. My hunch is that Troutman, not Halligan, is the true swing vote, but we shall see.

[GALeftist]

A couple of things I gleaned that I did not know before are: 1) Only upon rejection of that second plan may the Legislature, under the constitutional procedure, "amend[ ]" the maps drawn by the IRC (NY Const, art III, § 4). Any such legislative amendments are then statutorily limited to those that would affect no more than two percent of the population in any district (see L 2012, ch 17, § 3), and 2) if the commission fails to submit a map, or maps if there are equal votes for two maps, it goes to the Court to draw a map.

Thus assuming the Dems can get a two thirds vote for a map in the State Senate, in order to screw the Pubs, the Dem commission map will need to do the job since deviations from the Dem commission map will not be able to be more than 2% in population. The map will also need to hew to the law about compactness and not unduly favoring one party.

Assuming the Dems are allowed a second bite out of the apple by the Court of Appeals, it will be interesting to see how they choose to thread the needle, and just how hackish they think the new Chief Justice is. And they might not know for sure prior to the time the Commission Dems submit a map, assuming there is no bi-partisan agreement on the Commission.

As the quoted portion admits, though, the two percent limitation is merely statutory, and the legislature therefore circumvented it last time by beginning their redistricting legislation with language like "notwithstanding any other provision of law to the contrary" and saying that the legislation "shall supersede any inconsistent provision of law including but not limited to” the aforementioned limitation. The majority in Harkenrider seems to concede that this was legal, although it calls it an "attempted end run." DiFiore writes that "although the legislature retains the ultimate authority to enact districting maps upon completion of the IRC process, the constitutional reforms were clearly intended to promote fairness, transparency, and bipartisanship..." She references the Redistricting Reform Act of 2012 only to establish the intent of the writers of the redistricting amendment.

[GALeftist]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

It is honestly kind of interesting to me that Republicans are still so dead set against redistricting reform when gerrymandering no longer unambiguously benefits them in the long term imo. Perhaps because so many House Republicans are from Florida and Texas?

[GALeftist]

Simcha Felder won’t be a problem, he voted in favor of the previous Hochulmander. People ITT really don’t understand his transactional brand of politics, a gerrymander is more likely to be sunk by a Long Island senator if anything.

Having said that, I think New York Democrats will ultimately pass a gerrymander or at least attempt to. There was no point in going through this whole process for a couple seats they probably would have won anyway. I’d imagine leadership has already counted the votes; it really just comes down to if the CoA approves the map or not.

[GALeftist]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Malliotakis is DOA in any legislature's map lmao

^ This, this is a constant meme but the reality is that Staten Island can be put in a very blue seat with zero tradeoffs, plus Malliotakis isn't even that bipartisan, plus the CoA practically begged the Dems to axe her, specifically. If anyone gets spared it'll be, like, maybe Lawler or something. Even with LaLota Long Island geography is weird enough that two R sinks aren't much better than one.

[GALeftist]

Passed the commision 9-1. I know a lot of you don't want to believe it but the deal has been made and their is a 99% chance this is close to the final map (maybe minor changes within 2%).

Not sure what the commission has to do with the legislature rejecting/accepting it. Seems clear the legislature will likely reject this. Two completely different entities

 

New York’s congressional and state legislative lines are drawn primarily by a 10-person independent commission, at least in the first instance.  Each of the four legislative leaders (majority and minority leader in each legislative chamber) chooses 2 commissioners; those 8 commissioners choose 2 others who have not been registered Democrats or Republicans for the last 5 years.

https://redistricting.lls.edu/state/new-york/?cycle=2020&level=Congress&startdate=20201-01-01

These are not random people off the street, they are party functionaries picked by legislative leadership. To think the legislature had no imput in these maps is naive.

A ton of legislators have already said they should reject this map lol

[GALeftist]

The article alleges that the changes made will be minor (within 2%), but idk, it seems unlikely to me that the legislators who have such a problem with the current map would be OK with basically the same map. We'll see I suppose.

[GALeftist]

So does this IRC map count as the second map for the purposes of the NY state constitution, given that the legislature must reject plans twice before modifying them?

[GALeftist]

lol they had better not pass this. This would arguably worse than the current map

[GALeftist]

NY Dems need to get Latimer tf out of Albany. I’m sorry but your personal congressional ambitions come second to preventing the rise of fascism in this country.

[GALeftist]

Anyone want to explain wtf is happening here.

This makes zero sense.

For the record if NC and OH went fair - I’d be okay with it. But…. they didn’t. So WTF?

Ohio did stay fair.

Ohio is definitely not fair. A fair Ohio map would have a seat within Hamilton county, a likely D seat in northern Franklin County, and a tossup seat based in Lorain and western Cuyahoga.

[GALeftist]

My comment was less about any particular map and more about his mere physical presence in Albany. His input should be zero.

[GALeftist]

So what I'm gathering is that, broadly, removing Bowman is far more important to NY legislators than netting Dems a couple seats?

I honestly think the big lesson so far is that the NY Assembly is full of cowards. I think the Senate might be making a more aggressive map. We shall see.

[GALeftist]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

[GALeftist]

What an insanely weak map, hope Hochul vetoes although it seems extremely unlikely.

Assuming the map remains, I think Despacito and Williams are done, Lawler is in a Lean D race, Ryan is in a Likely D race, and Molinaro is in a Lean R race

Molinaro’s race is no better than a toss-up for him.

The new NY-19 is actually right of the old one at just Biden+4.4. Its trends are arguable – I'd argue that it's trending left, albeit not super quickly – but it's marginal enough that with incumbency and downballot lag I'd give Molinaro the edge.