2020 New York Redistricting

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

[SilverStar]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

So why do NY Democrats advanced a bill to limit redistricting lawsuits to deep blue Albany County? for the beaty? lol
The map is DOA in the legislature.

[Tekken_Guy]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

You really think a supermajority will just rubber stamp a neutral map?

[Dan the Roman]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

You really think a supermajority will just rubber stamp a neutral map?

It won't be neutral, but a deal in the sense of Darth Vader in Cloud city. This will be the GOP members behaving like the Ohio dems, at the last minute voting for the GOP maps as they are better than what they would get otherwise, but still a gerrymander.

If the Democrats can get a bipartisan endorsed 18D-4R-4S map where Biden won every swing seat by high single-digits and don't have to worry about the COA or whipping votes then that may be worth it, especially with the Ohio Dems/GOP making a deal, VRA gains in the South.

The deal likely is not done. As in Ohio, the Democrats probably have the threat of a 22-4, but they would prefer not to go through the process, and the ideal is for the GOP to agree to a softer gerrymander. Not least because that map will be a lot of work in terms of balancing parochial interests in the legislature(with the need for two-thirds) where a commission-endorsed product only needs a majority.

[Minnesota Mike]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

You really think a supermajority will just rubber stamp a neutral map?

I think they are fearful of the uncertainty of more court action. Reading between the lines it sounds like the commision map has the blessing of both parties powers that be. I could be wrong but that's what I think.

[Oryxslayer]

Honestly I think many of you are expecting too much change. I would not be surprised at all if the commision map outlined in Politico is passed by the legislature pretty much unchanged.

You really think a supermajority will just rubber stamp a neutral map?

I think they are fearful of the uncertainty of more court action. Reading between the lines it sounds like the commision map has the blessing of both parties powers that be. I could be wrong but that's what I think.

Well the only way to find out is to wait and see then. Whether the commission actually has a majority vote for anything tomorrow and whether the legislature even gives it the time of day.

[Gass3268]

Just feels weird that they would go through this whole dog and pony show just to make a few minor adjustments.

[Oryxslayer]

Just feels weird that they would go through this whole dog and pony show just to make a few minor adjustments.

Exactly. Why sue specifically after counting the votes and waiting for things to shift in the supreme court, and then change the rules of filing subsequent measures against it. If the legislative leaders just wanted least change, they wouldn't have backed the case to the hilt. Especially in regards to NYC, since that was where a bunch of the cases evidence came from.

If whatever the 'experts' are saying is something close to the potential commission map - we won't know until after tomorrows vote - then it'll probably be rejected by the legislature. And the legislature will tell them to do better like last time, they don't need to bother counting to 2/3s when just bouncing things back.

[Devils30]

I would take my chances with the current map over this. Dems should reject it and draw their own 21-5 or 22-4 map. Or at least draw 19-3-4 with the 3 being Biden +8 or so.

[Brittain33]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

[Atlas Force]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

It’s just Politico being Politico

[Oryxslayer]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean alternatively, that could exactly be the point. There was speculation a while back of a corrupt bargain, except in their favor. Lets say Latimer's ally, or some other D in the pocket of someone else, couldn't get what they wanted from the Dems. So they go to the Reps and make a offer.

In which case there isn't even any point of discussing it. Cause such a bargain won't matter versus the D supermajority, they would never vote against their delegated compatriots, and there aren't enough legislators friendly with one specific interest or another for them and the GOP to even get to a simple majority versus the Dems.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Yeah, it's really hard to draw a Trump district in that part of the central valley anyways; you'd be going very far out of your way to make either of NY-17 or NY-18 Safe D.

[Roll Roons]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Yeah, it's really hard to draw a Trump district in that part of the central valley anyways; you'd be going very far out of your way to make either of NY-17 or NY-18 Safe D.

I don't think Molinaro would have a Trump district under this proposal. He probably gets something like Biden +2 compared to his current Biden +5.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Yeah, it's really hard to draw a Trump district in that part of the central valley anyways; you'd be going very far out of your way to make either of NY-17 or NY-18 Safe D.

I don't think Molinaro would have a Trump district under this proposal. He probably gets something like Biden +2 compared to his current Biden +5.

Oh wait sorry I got Molinaro and Lawler mixed up

- Yeah there's no real incentive to make Molinaro a more favorable district especially since you can't really use his district to make Stefanik's district competitive and NY-22 can get bluer without Ithaca, but I'd argue the current config of NY-19 is pretty good for Dems as is.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Yeah, it's really hard to draw a Trump district in that part of the central valley anyways; you'd be going very far out of your way to make either of NY-17 or NY-18 Safe D.

I don't think Molinaro would have a Trump district under this proposal. He probably gets something like Biden +2 compared to his current Biden +5.

Oh wait sorry I got Molinaro and Lawler mixed up

- Yeah there's no real incentive to make Molinaro a more favorable district especially since you can't really use his district to make Stefanik's district competitive and NY-22 can get bluer without Ithaca, but I'd argue the current config of NY-19 is pretty good for Dems as is.

I mean they’re shoring him up to help out Pat Ryan next door. But they can always swap out the rural counties in the west of NY-19 for Rensselaer County, which offsets any of the changes made with NY-18 and brings it back to its current partisanship.

[SilverStar]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Malliotakis is DOA in any legislature's map lmao

[GALeftist]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Malliotakis is DOA in any legislature's map lmao

^ This, this is a constant meme but the reality is that Staten Island can be put in a very blue seat with zero tradeoffs, plus Malliotakis isn't even that bipartisan, plus the CoA practically begged the Dems to axe her, specifically. If anyone gets spared it'll be, like, maybe Lawler or something. Even with LaLota Long Island geography is weird enough that two R sinks aren't much better than one.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don’t believe that article. It’s describing a complete surrender to Republicans.

I mean yeah I could see Malliotakis or even LaLota get off easy, but they have pretty much zero incentive to spare Molinaro.

Malliotakis is DOA in any legislature's map lmao

^ This, this is a constant meme but the reality is that Staten Island can be put in a very blue seat with zero tradeoffs, plus Malliotakis isn't even that bipartisan, plus the CoA practically begged the Dems to axe her, specifically. If anyone gets spared it'll be, like, maybe Lawler or something. Even with LaLota Long Island geography is weird enough that two R sinks aren't much better than one.

I really wish if NY Dems go with a gerrymander, they'd just attach Staten Island to Lower Manhattan. Makes Brooklyn much cleaner, lower Manhattan Dems are generally high turnout outside some parts of the Lower East Side, and Lower Manhattan has a ton of money so even if a Dem was in a competative race they'd get all the money they need.

I'd also argue that Staten Island - Lower Manhattan is a more coherent district in terms of communities than one that sneaks up 4th Avenue into Park Slope.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Honestly the thing that would make me the angriest would just be a map that goes to an extreme to prioritize individual politicians interests over a larger goal. I thought NY Dems original map was disgusting not just because it was a partisan gerrymander, but because it made really wacky decisions just to appeal to legacy politicians already in safe D seats that were unnecessary if the goal was just a gerrymander.

Any sort of politician protection map, be it a Dem gerrymander or a bipartisan gerrymander will be disgusting so really keeping my fingers crossed it's either a least change neutral map or a FL-style gerrymander where at least communities are generally respected and lines are clean.

[Tekken_Guy]

A “soft” gerrymander I drew. If I were a Dem on the commission, I’d offer this as a compromise and threaten the Hochulmander if Republicans declined this map.

Instead of going full NC-GOP on them, R incumbents are instead given the Don Davis treatment, where they are given tougher but not totally unwinnable seats.

-Suffolk county has a west-east divide instead of the north-south one on the current map, giving us a seats that Biden and Trump each won by mid single digits rather than two seats that were tied in 2020. Garbarino would likely run in the eastern seat, which is Trump+7. He was pretty much safe before and he’s even safer now. LaLota would probably run in the western seat which is Biden+7, which, while not the Likely R seat he has now, is probably no worse than a toss-up for him.
-Nassau is left mostly untouched outside of a few boundary swaps at the southeastern border. Suozzi won’t need shoring up since he won decisively on Tuesday, and D’Esposito gets to keep his 2022 seat.
-Malliotakis gets a tougher seat but unlike the Biden+10 she got on the Hochulmander, she gets a Biden+1 seat that still goes to Park Slope but doesn’t go all the way up to Gowanus and instead holds some of the redder areas like Dyker Heights. She’ll probably win re-election in 2024 in this seat, but is vulnerable in a bad year for Republicans.
-Bowman is left unchanged to please Latimer’s allies on the commission.
-Lawler is left unchanged and is in for a pure toss-up race.
-Pat Ryan is shored up as he gets all of Ulster in his seat in exchange for dropping some of the redder parts of Orange County.
-Molinaro benefits from the trade off with Ryan as he sheds parts of Ulster for Orange, but this is offset by trading off some western rurals for parts of Rensselaer County, keeping the seat at similar partisanship to the current one.
-Williams goes from Biden+7 to Biden+10 as the red rural parts of Oneida County are exchanged for some blue towns like Oneonta, Cooperstown, Cortland, and Auburn.

[nerd73]

Ya'll are acting surprised that NY Ds made a corrupt bargain. It's New York, corruption is in their blood, and it's the same party that gave the world Andrew Cuomo and Kathy Hochul, and the IDC.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ya'll are acting surprised that NY Ds made a corrupt bargain. It's New York, corruption is in their blood, and it's the same party that gave the world Andrew Cuomo and Kathy Hochul, and the IDC.

If the Democrats were willing to surrender that easily there would never have been a Hochulmander.

[Atlas Force]

Good thread:

https://twitter.com/ET_Californian/status/1757883413640384762

Unrolled version: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1757883413640384762.html