2020 New York Redistricting

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/NYElectionNews/status/1734357408510578744?t=7kE6tOASzK4_NaqQ...

News probably coming in a few days if not tomorrow, cause next week is holiday time.

[Roll Roons]

Decision expected this afternoon.

[Gass3268]

Given what Republicans did in North Carolina, hopefully they do the right thing.

[Brittain33]

Apparently the court sided with the Dems.

Court of Appeals on redistricting:

"The IRC should  comply with its constitutional mandate by submitting to the legislature, on the earliest  possible date, but in no event later than February 28, 2024, a second congressional  redistricting plan and implementing legislation"

[Devils30]

Lawler, Brandon Williams and Molinaro are likely cooked after this ruling. I also expect Dems to make NY-1, NY-3 considerably bluer and maybe even pursue the 22-4 map with NY-11 blue leaning. NY-4 probably stays similar.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MondaireJones/status/1734668262913212709?s=20

[Farmlands]

https://twitter.com/MondaireJones/status/1734668262913212709?s=20

Funny joke. Almost as good as the machine politician map they'll come up with for NY, which is what the voters were trying to stop with that referendum, but screw them, why should they matter in a democracy?

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/MondaireJones/status/1734668262913212709?s=20

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1734667849367474419

[Oryxslayer]

I hope we do see Goldman want to drop the Progressive neighborhoods like one expects, cause then there might be an attempt to put forward a draft testing the waters for the Chinese access NY-11. The discourse around an effort like below will be interesting to watch, especially given how much attention has been directed to Brooklyn's Chinese in recent years.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

[Devils30]

Yeah, if there isnt a 50 state solution then Ds have to gerrymander NY like the Rs in TX and FL.

[GALeftist]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

It is honestly kind of interesting to me that Republicans are still so dead set against redistricting reform when gerrymandering no longer unambiguously benefits them in the long term imo. Perhaps because so many House Republicans are from Florida and Texas?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

It is honestly kind of interesting to me that Republicans are still so dead set against redistricting reform when gerrymandering no longer unambiguously benefits them in the long term imo. Perhaps because so many House Republicans are from Florida and Texas?

Ye gerrymandering still allows them to lock in legislative majorities in several large swing states like NC and GA. If they lose full control TX and GA by 2030 redistricting cycle, I think there’s a good chance their attitudes change.

While Dems do control NY and IL, on the state legislative level those states were always going to have lopsided D legislatures gerrymander or not.

[Tekken_Guy]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

Maybe it could happen on a state-by-state basis. For example, New York can offer to reinstate the court map in exchange for North Carolina doing the same.

Or Illinois can pass a fair map if Texas follows suit.

[Nyvin]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

Maybe it could happen on a state-by-state basis. For example, New York can offer to reinstate the court map in exchange for North Carolina doing the same.

Or Illinois can pass a fair map if Texas follows suit.

Very doubtful, the biggest push to gerrymander maps comes from the incumbents in the districts themselves. 

That's why removing politicians from the process is always absolutely key.

[Oryxslayer]

There was a time when redistricting reform was a GOP cause, largely cause of how much the Dems controlled in Southern legislatures, and how powerful and unchecked early computerized mapping was. The cause has flipped with the party who most benefits from it.

In the end, I think the attachment to it just stems from a individual perception of zero-sum politics, a game most frequently played but not exclusive to the Southern states. And the Dems historically and the GOP now have oversized presence of southern legislators. Which as a individual perception is not something that can exactly be reasoned with in legislative negotiations, even as it becomes increasingly nonsensible. The political coalitions and Post-Milligan suits are rendering the fight to gerrymander in many southern states irrelevant, since Dems are slowly locking in adequate representation without going through the legislature, and the rest of the map is blood red.

[Skill and Chance]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

It is honestly kind of interesting to me that Republicans are still so dead set against redistricting reform when gerrymandering no longer unambiguously benefits them in the long term imo. Perhaps because so many House Republicans are from Florida and Texas?

There's a segment of Republicans who are non-hypocritically committed to as much state level control vs. federal control as possible.*  They are enough to sway the outcome on this, particularly given the need for 60 senate votes.  If there was an entrenched 25 year Dem House majority that was finally broken by just a couple seats with the PV at R+10, perhaps this would be different, but that's the kind of result it would take to overcome the preference for state level control.

*They do tend to be fine with state legislatures overruling local governments in a way that can look hypocritical.  But this is constitutionally very distinct.  Under most state constitutions, local governments exist at the pleasure of the state legislature.

[Dan the Roman]

What would redistricting reform look like? Democrats since about 2017 have been committed to proportional representation which

1. Would produce nonsense maps in New England
2. From a COI/Community of Interest standpoint, make gerrymandering worse not better

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

How blue will the districts get? Could it end up as a dummymander given the Biden +10 polls in NY?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Really wish there was a way Ds and Rs could mutually agree to ban gerrymandering, however until Rs start acting in good faith on this issue they’ll have to deal with Dems playing hardball where they can

It is honestly kind of interesting to me that Republicans are still so dead set against redistricting reform when gerrymandering no longer unambiguously benefits them in the long term imo. Perhaps because so many House Republicans are from Florida and Texas?

There's a segment of Republicans who are non-hypocritically committed to as much state level control vs. federal control as possible.*  They are enough to sway the outcome on this, particularly given the need for 60 senate votes.  If there was an entrenched 25 year Dem House majority that was finally broken by just a couple seats with the PV at R+10, perhaps this would be different, but that's the kind of result it would take to overcome the preference for state level control.

*They do tend to be fine with state legislatures overruling local governments in a way that can look hypocritical.  But this is constitutionally very distinct.  Under most state constitutions, local governments exist at the pleasure of the state legislature.

Honestly one way out of this is if Dems start growing a strong geographic bias that makes the GOP want some sort of reform. Geography used to clearly help the GOP, but recent Dem gains have been disproportionately out of swingier suburbs while a lot of GOP's gains are concentrated in hyper-R rurals and hyper-D cities they have no chance of winning anytime soon.

[ProgressiveModerate]

How blue will the districts get? Could it end up as a dummymander given the Biden +10 polls in NY?

I think the upstate seats will be largely fine; it seems like Biden's poor polling in NY generally comes from NYC and LI. If they put Malliotakis into smtg like a Biden + 10ish seat, there's a good chance she's able to hold it and even Trump wins it in 2024.

As for Long Island, it'll be interesting to see what Dems do; geography makes gerrymandering it weird. I think the best think for Dems to do would be to keep NY-04 roughly as is, shore up NY-03 by exchanging swingy Little Neck precincts for deep blue Queens Village, and then do as much precinct exchanging between NY-01 and NY-02 to make NY-01 as favorable as possible (like Biden + 7?). NY-01 would probably still be a tossup, but NY-03 and NY-04 should lean Dem in a normal year as long as Dems don't get too lazy.

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

[Atlas Force]

Now here’s a real blast from the past:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1734692514966258135

[Mr.Phips]

How blue will the districts get? Could it end up as a dummymander given the Biden +10 polls in NY?

I think the upstate seats will be largely fine; it seems like Biden's poor polling in NY generally comes from NYC and LI. If they put Malliotakis into smtg like a Biden + 10ish seat, there's a good chance she's able to hold it and even Trump wins it in 2024.

As for Long Island, it'll be interesting to see what Dems do; geography makes gerrymandering it weird. I think the best think for Dems to do would be to keep NY-04 roughly as is, shore up NY-03 by exchanging swingy Little Neck precincts for deep blue Queens Village, and then do as much precinct exchanging between NY-01 and NY-02 to make NY-01 as favorable as possible (like Biden + 7?). NY-01 would probably still be a tossup, but NY-03 and NY-04 should lean Dem in a normal year as long as Dems don't get too lazy.

One thing Dems will want to consider is which upstate district will get Spring Valley and Kirya Joels. These fast growing ultra-Conservative Jewish communities could shift a Biden + 10 seat right in the long run.

Why not put them in Bowman’s district (NY-16)?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Now here’s a real blast from the past:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1734692514966258135

My favorite part is it’s a low jpg image so NYC looks like a smudged painting

[Oryxslayer]

Here's an interesting part of the opinion. I have noted before that one of the big communities that got screwed by the court order was Brooklyn Chinese, cut up between 3 to 4 districts depending on the definition. This is of course because of the direction taken with NY-10, and the desire to restore compactness to seats that paired similar yet geographically divergent ethnic groups. Alongside the obvious desire to counteract gerrymandering and maintain the status quo in Staten Island.

But that therefore allowed the Dem plaintiffs to use the treatment of the Chinese as evidence, and the court all but says there should be some reconsideration taken in regards to that community in light of the evidence and consequences from the court map. And as we have already discussed, creating a seat with a large chinese population, or plurality if it's paired with Chinatown in Manhattan, basically requires the ferry link of Staten - Manhatten. Cause you are de facto cutting the NYC White seats from 3 to 2, and Staten is so White and so large it has to go in one of those 2.