TX-SEN: True to Form

[GeorgiaModerate]

So there's now talk of Cruz replacing Sessions as Attorney General.  If that should occur, what happens in the special election to replace Cruz?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas law for replacing a Senator:

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Source

[GeorgiaModerate]

The ball is now in Beto's court. He has to like better porn.

Then he can be "Better" O'Rourke.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wait wait. You people actually think Cruz is gonna lose? Demographics or midterms be damned, that just isn’t happening.

I think the general consensus is that it's unlikely, but possible in a big enough D wave.  As opposed to someplace like Utah or Nebraska, where the R is going to win regardless of the size of the D wave.  Personally I'd put Cruz's chances of winning at about 85% at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lying Ted Cruz up to his old tricks again:

https://www.twitter.com/TexanTruth42/status/1000838395898232832

Is it me or it's a terrible strategy to get people to fund your campaign?

Nobody likes to receive mail that says "summons".  If I got something like that, it would incline me against voting for whoever sent it (regardless of their party).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can't believe I'm saying this about Ted Cruz, and we'll have to see the actual bill to be sure, but the talking points about this bill seem very focused and reasonable.  I was expecting him to propose something that would include full funding for the wall, etc., and put Democrats in the position of opposing a fix to the child separation problem.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I can't believe I'm saying this about Ted Cruz, and we'll have to see the actual bill to be sure, but the talking points about this bill seem very focused and reasonable.  I was expecting him to propose something that would include full funding for the wall, etc., and put Democrats in the position of opposing a fix to the child separation problem.

Are there any substantial differences between his bill and the one proposed by Senate Democrats?

I'm not up on the Senate bill.  This is what I saw for the Cruz bill:

• Double the number of federal immigration judges, from 375 to 750.
  
• Authorize new temporary shelters with accommodations to keep families together.
  
• Mandate that familes must be kept together, absent aggravated criminal conduct or threat of harm to the children.
  
• Provide for expedited processing and review of asylum cases.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lol at people saying “but Clinton won it 1992!”


What would those same people say to someone in 2004 who said “but Reagan won California in ‘84?”

Roughly the same time elapsed.....

W actually thought he could win CA in 2000 (not 2004, obviously, but still)

Didn’t Rove convince him to camp out there for the final stretch of the campaign? Man, if Dubya had lost only 500 more votes in Florida (because Gore did narrow the gap there over the last few days), it would have been easily the most embarassing election loss; far more than our 2016 was.

Or if Palm Beach County hadn't used the idiotic butterfly ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looking more like the TX Sen race is going to be a battleground this fall.

I still have a heard time seeing Cruz losing, but it does look like O'Rourke is going to at least make him sweat.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cruz sex tape imminent?

https://www.twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1025866042390863873

That's something the world isn't ready for.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ted Cruz is going to win re-election. We are not going to lose this seat. Senator Cruz is one of the great heroes of our time and he is not going to lose to someone like Beto O'Rourke. He is too energized and too committed to lose. When it is all said and done, Senator Cruz will win this election.

Cruz is one of the "great heroes of our time"?  For what?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ted Cruz is going to win re-election. We are not going to lose this seat. Senator Cruz is one of the great heroes of our time and he is not going to lose to someone like Beto O'Rourke. He is too energized and too committed to lose. When it is all said and done, Senator Cruz will win this election.

Cruz is one of the "great heroes of our time"?  For what?

Didn't you hear? He's a Titan of the Constitution!

I did hear that, yes. Someone familiar may have been the one who said that, in fact.

Still curious as to why you think he's one of the great heroes of our time (specifics, please).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lying Ted Cruz is broke and needs a bailout from daddy Koch

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Wow, thats sad. Cruz spent all his money before Labour day on ads, and it looks like Beto, playing it smart, pulling a Nelson, is going to do an ad blitz and GOTV operation with his cash. This race is seeming more and more like a tossup.

How do you know that he is out of money? In their latest reports, Cruz had about $9.3 million on hand to O'Rourke's just under $14 million. The last reports were at the end of June, but there was only a difference of about $5 million between them in terms of cash on hand. How do you know that Senator Cruz has spent all of his money?

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary?cycle=2018&id=TXS2

....because thats what the article just said.

No it doesn't. I have read it three times now. Where does it say that?

"Ted Cruz divulges that he hasn't raised enough money to compete with Beto O'Rourke's TV ads

During a Republican gathering in North Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) admitted that he hasn’t raised enough money to compete with Beto O’Rourke’s TV ads."

Those numbers you quoted may sound impressive on paper, but TX is an expensive state, and Cruz is really burning through it.

Yes, he said that he is being out raised by his opponent right now and that his campaign needs to be careful to conserve it's money. He didn't say that he has spent everything that he has raised already.

Yes, this is going to be an extremely expensive race. It very well may end up being the most expensive race of this election cycle.

Toss-up between this and Florida, I think.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't see how this can be considered a Tossup at this point.  O'Rourke has not led in a single substantiated poll (the Civiqs poll that supposedly had him up by 1 never materialized).  If the race were truly close, he would be leading in *some* polls.  I'll acknowledge that it's closer than I ever expected, but objectively I don't see how it can be rated any closer than Lean R.  That is, it would no longer surprise me if O'Rourke won, but Cruz is still the favorite.  If we start seeing some polls with Beto in the lead, that would be a different story.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1035975063915384832

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Dui story could have legs in that he attempted to flee the scene and drove into an oncoming lane of traffic. He also got off scot-free because daddy was a powerful judge

Great point! He was such a powerful judge you went back in time and set up a court-ordered diversion program available for first-time offenders several years before his son picked up a charge! Brilliant! Not hackish at all!

He borrowed Obama's time machine (you know, the one he used to place his birth announcement in the Honolulu newspapers).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Parkland survivor raises thousands to place billboard of Trump's anti-Cruz tweet in Texas

[GeorgiaModerate]

GOP going full racist against Beto

https://www.twitter.com/jerryochoa/status/1037451693078790150

This can't be legal, can it?  I hope?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Top Trump Adviser Says Ted Cruz Could Lose Texas Senate Race

who is this?

Captain Obvious (from a TV ad campaign).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lying Ted meltdown continues

https://mobile.twitter.com/jamesoliphant/status/1038549935489253377

This sounds like something a middle aged white guy would be saying in like 1965.

I'm so confused. Republicans should be competent at this flavor of culture war. For some reason, when they're bringing their campaign managers to Cruz, they're not bringing their best. I could rewrite this attack on California (the land of fruits and nuts,,) better than Cruz.

This is apparently a new standard-issue GOP attack line.  They're using a similar attack on Stacey Abrams here in Georgia: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/new-gop-line-abrams-will-turn-georgia-into-the-next-california/I92oBGDfWRYytm7T4dPw5N/.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice work!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Willie Nelson will headline a rally for O'Rourke, his first ever public performance on behalf of a political candidate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/406399-willie-nelson-to-headline-rally-for-beto-orourke

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beto's shift to the left isn't gonna win him swing voters, Cruz will win by 6 points.

This notion that swing voters are wise and thoughtful centrists is one that needs to be dispelled. 

Well, we try.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sean_r_owen/status/1041182844234522624

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1041845973100756992