TX-SEN: True to Form

[IceSpear]

Please remove this actual analysis from the forum.

Nice work!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

One of my friends walked up to me today said they are turning 18 in a month, and they are going to register to vote and pull the lever for Beto, so that made my day.

[SCNCmod]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

[kyc0705]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

Ted Cruz gives the illusion of a spectral figure who has silently presided over every conflict since the start of humanity and urged for the most destructive response. He floats from century to century, his plastered smile and grating voice at the corner of every room. And though he is in everyone's peripheral vision, when they turn their heads in his direction, he is gone, and only his creepy aura remains.

[NOVA Green]

I made some benchmarks as rough estimates for the sorts of numbers Beto would need in order to achieve a narrow plurality victory (49.6%-49.5%).

These numbers should not be taken to indicate what I think is actually achievable, but rather what, more or less, would be needed for Beto to have a chance. I think they illustrate how difficult it would be for him to win.

The numbers for the urban/suburban counties actually ended up fairly close to what Mizzouian/Republicans for Nelson posted earlier (somewhat more than I would have guessed beforehand), although they are also a few points higher.


These benchmarks use 2014 turnout as a starting point for the share of votes cast in each county, and modify this to allow for increased turnout in urban and suburban counties, particularly the large and growing ones in the major metropolitan areas, and some smaller increases in turnout in counties with smaller cities (but not really "rural") and Hispanic border counties.

The starting point for the Democratic and Republican vote shares within each county is the Dem margin is whichever of the following 2 are higher:

a) The Clinton-Trump 2016 margin, with 3rd party votes significantly reduced and allocated mostly to Dems. Beto is assigned 70% of the Johnson voters, 85% of the Stein voters, and 35% of the write-in voters. Cruz is assigned 15% of the Johnson voters and 15% of the write-in voters.

OR

b) The Obama-Romney 2012 margin.

So basically, as a starting point this has O'Rourke doing at least as well as Clinton in the areas where Clinton did well in 2016, and as well as Obama 2012 in the areas where Clinton did worse than Obama.


This is then modified to account somewhat for Cruz's regional strength and weaknesses in the 2012 vote, as compared to Romney. Cruz did a bit better then in Latino areas, and a bit worse in Demosaur/rural racist areas (probably related to his surname and ethnicity). Half of the deviation between Cruz and Romney, relative to the overall statewide difference, is incorporated in this adjustment.

Next, 9% of Republican voters in major urban/suburban counties with lots of college educated white voters are swung to Democrats, and 2% of Republican voters in counties with smaller cities. The swing in El Paso is made larger (20% of Republican voters swing to Beto) to account for a presumed home town effect for Beto. There is no additional swing in rural counties, or in Hispanic counties.


The margins that Beto would need would look something like this on a county map:




Here's the swing in the margin as compared to the Clinton-Trump margin in the 2016 presidential race. This has large gains (in terms of percentage margin) for Dems in many rural counties with dwindling Demosaur populations relative to what Clinton got, to get back up towards the support levels Obama got in 2012, and also has substantial additional improvements over the gains Clinton already got in urban and suburban counties. The Hispanic border areas are a bit more of a mixed bag, with Beto expected to underperform there somewhat in at least some places:



And here's the swing as compared to the 2012 Senate race (Cruz against Sadler). This has Democrats making large gains in urban/suburban areas, but Republicans making some gains in rural areas that swung to Trump in 2016:




Here are these benchmarks sorted from largest turnout county to smallest:

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WOW!!! A+++ for Atlas effort post!   

I requoted in full, since although it's lengthy post there is a ton of stuff packed in there...

1.) Methodology for what a "hypothetical" Beto win might look like....
      A.) Benchmark uses '14 Turnout as Vote Share by County.
      B.) Modifies to include estimated VAP / Population by County since '14 (That was going to be
           one of my initial questions on first review).
      C.) Using '12 DEM PRES or '16 DEM PRES (Whichever is higher--- assigning Lions share of '16
           3rd Part Votes to BETO)
      D.) Modified to include Cruz regional strength/weakness in '12 compared/contrasted vs Romney
      E.) Adjusted to include a +9% D Swing in key suburban / Highly Educated Counties, and 2%
           Swing in smaller Cities.
      F.) +20% D swing among Republican Voters in El Paso County (Beto hometown effect)

Did I miss anything on the methodologies employed?

     2.) Awesome set of maps utilized to explain:
           A.) The various County % Margins in US-SEN-TX-18
           B.) Swing in Dem margin % compared to '16 US-PRES   (Wait why is TX Atlas REP???)
           C.) Swing in Dem % Margin compared to '12 US-SEN-TX  (Atlas colors off???)   

    3.) County Benchmarks
          A.) Excellent job presenting county level benchmarks as a follow-up raw data point for
               discussion/analysis
          B.) Personally, and it's a bit tricky with Texas because there so many darn Counties in the
               Lone Star State---- it might be helpful to take some of the various counties broken up by
               regions/ Metro Areas, or whatever, and them lump them into an Excel Sheet to make your
               raw data analysis a bit easier on the eyes, and help break up the long text document at
               the end to make for an easier visual reference, since I suspect most folks aren't going to
               spend much time scrolling through each of the individual counties line item by line item.

I do a ton of long posts, and learned awhile back sometimes it better to break up long segments of text with data with a mix of visual formats when doing more detailed level analysis....

Honestly at this point, I still haven't had a chance to review all of this yet, since I still need to "put it in my pipe and smoke it" (Joke, since that's not really my bag), maybe better a nice stiff cup of coffee and some Texas Time on my hands....

First impression, the map you present looks extremely bleak for BETO, mainly because the rural EastTex, WestTex, and NorthTex look extremely small, with potentially over-estimations of Democratic surges in the Metro areas....

Don't suppose you would mind pulling something together by region/Metro areas in Texas and throw in a few Excel spreadsheets based upon Key Metro Areas by County / Region and estimated raw vote % margins from the model?

Excellent work---- Peak Atlas in a positive sense.....

[Zaybay]

Snip

Incredible work, and stuff that I would like to see more on Atlas! Congrats!

[TML]

I recently read reports that the closeness and competitiveness of the Texas Senate race could lead to what I'd call a "domino effect" - i.e. pro-Republican national groups need to spend substantial amounts of money in Texas to shore up Cruz, leaving them with less to spend elsewhere (e.g. Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Tennessee, Florida, etc.). This may result in Democratic candidates gaining points in those areas, perhaps enough for them to win or hold on to existing seats.

Does anyone think this theory will hold water?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think it's overrated, but it might make a difference at the margins.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The best chance of a domino effect is Beto pulling a few house seats over the dems in TX.

[junior chįmp]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

Ted Cruz gives the illusion of a spectral figure who has silently presided over every conflict since the start of humanity and urged for the most destructive response. He floats from century to century, his plastered smile and grating voice at the corner of every room. And though he is in everyone's peripheral vision, when they turn their heads in his direction, he is gone, and only his creepy aura remains.

Ted Cruz Jokes to Oil Lobbyists About Eating Someone’s Son

“I was really tempted to tweet, ‘He was delicious,'” he said

[Stranger in a strange land]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

Ted Cruz gives the illusion of a spectral figure who has silently presided over every conflict since the start of humanity and urged for the most destructive response. He floats from century to century, his plastered smile and grating voice at the corner of every room. And though he is in everyone's peripheral vision, when they turn their heads in his direction, he is gone, and only his creepy aura remains.

Ted Cruz Jokes to Oil Lobbyists About Eating Someone’s Son

“I was really tempted to tweet, ‘He was delicious,'” he said

Stuff like this and the "hair dye and silicon" remark show why Cruz is a uniquely terrible candidate, why he lost the 2016 primary even with the RNC rigging it in his favor, and why he would have lost the general in 2016, even against Hillary.

[Torrain]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

Ted Cruz gives the illusion of a spectral figure who has silently presided over every conflict since the start of humanity and urged for the most destructive response. He floats from century to century, his plastered smile and grating voice at the corner of every room. And though he is in everyone's peripheral vision, when they turn their heads in his direction, he is gone, and only his creepy aura remains.

Ted Cruz Jokes to Oil Lobbyists About Eating Someone’s Son

“I was really tempted to tweet, ‘He was delicious,'” he said

“Ok Ted, as long as you stay on message for the next few week’s your going to be fine. Just don’t do anything that plays into the narrative that you’re some kind of serial killer or lizard man.”

“Ok, I hear you, but how about instead, I joke about eating children and invite comparisons to Hannibal Lector. That’ll make me seem relatable and fun loving.”

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

snip

Ugg, I had typed out a fairly long response, but then it got eaten by "session verification failed."

Will try to respond again later.

[The Mikado]

One of my friends walked up to me today said they are turning 18 in a month, and they are going to register to vote and pull the lever for Beto, so that made my day.

Please remind them there are no actual levers involved, and to not bend or pull the paper sheet that needs to go through the Scantron.

[Former President tack50]

It seems crazy to me that Beto is only 2 years younger than Cruz.

Ted Cruz gives the illusion of a spectral figure who has silently presided over every conflict since the start of humanity and urged for the most destructive response. He floats from century to century, his plastered smile and grating voice at the corner of every room. And though he is in everyone's peripheral vision, when they turn their heads in his direction, he is gone, and only his creepy aura remains.

Ted Cruz Jokes to Oil Lobbyists About Eating Someone’s Son

“I was really tempted to tweet, ‘He was delicious,'” he said

“Ok Ted, as long as you stay on message for the next few week’s your going to be fine. Just don’t do anything that plays into the narrative that you’re some kind of serial killer or lizard man.”

“Ok, I hear you, but how about instead, I joke about eating children and invite comparisons to Hannibal Lector. That’ll make me seem relatable and fun loving.”

Reminds me of this lol

https://www.tedcruzforhumanpresident.com/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Willie Nelson will headline a rally for O'Rourke, his first ever public performance on behalf of a political candidate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/406399-willie-nelson-to-headline-rally-for-beto-orourke

[NOVA Green]

Willie Nelson will headline a rally for O'Rourke, his first ever public performance on behalf of a political candidate.

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/406399-willie-nelson-to-headline-rally-for-beto-orourke

Means a lot more in Texas than a musical/celebrity endorsement in most other States.... especially considering all of the Gray-Hair Anglos popping out of the would-works in these small Texas Towns at BETO events in +50% Trump Counties...

[cp]

Beto was interviewed on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night.

He did all right, I guess. He's very telegenic and came off as sort of adorkable in the first few minutes. That said, he also seemed kinda nervous and snapped into what I assume is his stump speech for most of the interview. He delivered his lines well but seemed like a garden variety politician to my ear. Maybe people from Texas would respond to this sort of thing better?

[JG]

Beto was interviewed on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night.

He did all right, I guess. He's very telegenic and came off as sort of adorkable in the first few minutes. That said, he also seemed kinda nervous and snapped into what I assume is his stump speech for most of the interview. He delivered his lines well but seemed like a garden variety politician to my ear. Maybe people from Texas would respond to this sort of thing better?

I agree he did seem pretty nervous, but I think he didn't do bad at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto's shift to the left isn't gonna win him swing voters, Cruz will win by 6 points.

[Ronnie]

Beto's shift to the left isn't gonna win him swing voters, Cruz will win by 6 points.

This notion that swing voters are wise and thoughtful centrists is one that needs to be dispelled. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This notion that swing voters are wise and thoughtful centrists is one that needs to be dispelled. 

I'll drink to that. It is definitely a fiction that must be dispelled.

[kyc0705]

Beto's shift to the left isn't gonna win him swing voters, Cruz will win by 6 points.

This notion that swing voters are wise and thoughtful centrists is one that needs to be dispelled. 

When somebody equates undecided voters with smart, critical thinkers, I always think of this SNL sketch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAG37Kw1-aw

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beto's shift to the left isn't gonna win him swing voters, Cruz will win by 6 points.

This notion that swing voters are wise and thoughtful centrists is one that needs to be dispelled. 

Well, we try.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Beto was interviewed on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert last night.

He did all right, I guess. He's very telegenic and came off as sort of adorkable in the first few minutes. That said, he also seemed kinda nervous and snapped into what I assume is his stump speech for most of the interview. He delivered his lines well but seemed like a garden variety politician to my ear. Maybe people from Texas would respond to this sort of thing better?

Going on a liberal elite show, great strategy. Beto gonna lose and Atlas will be the only place even moderately surprised.