🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

So, just in case Armin Laschet will be elected the new Bundesmutti, who do you think will succeed him as Governor / Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia?

• Herbert Reul, Interior Minister
• Karl-Josef Laumann, Minister for Employment, Health, and Social Affairs; chairman of the CDA
• Friedrich Merz, direct candidate for Hochsauerlandkreis and Blackrock lobbyist
• Norbert Röttgen, former Federal Environment Minister and former gubernatorial candidate
• Bodo Löttgen, CDU Landtag group leader
• André Kuper, Landtag President

PS: Isn't it kinda funny and ironic that there two people in the list whose surname rhyme with each other. 😂

[Tender Branson]

New MDR/infratest dimap poll for Sachsen-Anhalt (state election on June 6):



https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/landtagswahl/wahlprognose-umfrage-infratest-dimap100.html

https://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundeslaender/sachsen-anhalt/laendertrend/2021/april/

[Yeahsayyeah]

Coalition forming in Sachsen-Anhalt will be interesting. The relation between the CDU that has clearly done a rightward turn in this state (or at least has become more open about it) and the other partners in the Kenya coalition is not very well. CDU would probably like Jamaica or the "Germany coalition" (black-red-yellow, you see...) more. I don't think they will dare to do the Baum-Frick-administration, after what happened in Thuringia.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I don't think they will dare to do the Baum-Frick-administration, after what happened in Thuringia.

Well it would certainly fit the CDU’s recent suicidal tendencies. Not gonna happen, but If they actually did it, it would confirm that the Union’s real objective is going the way of the SPD.

[Astatine]

As the old thread seems to have been deleted, I thought I'd just start new one as the other German election megathread is reserved for federal elections only.

Saxony-Anhalt will go to the polls on 6th of June, and it is the only state the CDU has to defend this year. Minister-President Reiner Haseloff has been governing for 10 years now and is seeking a third term, which he is likely to get. From 2011 until 2016 he governed in a black-red coalition with the SPD, and since 2016, the CDU has been in a coalition with SPD and Greens (so-called Kenya coalition).
Saxony-Anhalt as an Eastern state has always had a stronger Left Party and in 2016, the AfD got a record gain for a party out of nothing (24.3 %).

The 2016 election looked like this:

CDU: 29.8 % (30 seats)
AfD: 24.3 % (25)
Left: 16.3 % (16)
SPD: 10.6 % (11)
Greens: 5.2 % (5)
FDP: 4.9 %
Free Voters: 2.2 %

Polling indicates a relatively stable political landscape, continuing the German tradition of re-electing incumbents: CDU with moderate losses, AfD stable, Left with large-scaled losses, SPD stable, Greens and FDP with gains, Free Voters with gains.

One poll had the AfD up as largest party, but that seemed to be an outlier.

The average of the three most recent polls (all from this week) is the following (with seat numbers calculated according to Saintue-Lague's distrubution method, for the sake of comparison, I assumed that the total seat count will be 90 again):

CDU: 27.3 % (27)
AfD: 24.3 % (24)
Left: 11.3 % (11)
SPD: 10.3 % (10)
Greens: 9.7 % (10)
FDP: 8.0 % (8)
Free Voters: 3.0 %

The race for the third spot is widely open, while it seems like that the CDU will retain its position as largest party. The Free Voters might surprise us all by taking the 5 percent threshold, but it doesn't seem too likely as of now.

The following coalitions could be politically possible (both the Germany and the Jamaica coalition might not get a majority though):
CDU+SPD+Greens ("Kenya"): 47/90
CDU+SPD+FDP ("Germany"): 45/90
CDU+Greens+FDP ("Jamaica"): 45/90

The CDU state party in Saxony-Anhalt is quite conservative, so some CDU state legislators might flirt with a cooperation with the AfD, but Reiner Haseloff has been strongly opposing those ideas. A Thuringia-like scenario can pretty much be excluded, that would be a disaster for CDU and FDP in a federal election year.

[CumbrianLefty]

I am aware of what happened on the old thread, but was it really needed to delete the whole thing?

[Astatine]

Regarding the coalitions that could be possible in the Saxony-Anhalt, some more details:

CDU+SPD+Greens ("Kenya")

The Kenya coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens has had their problems over the last years and was on verge of collapsing several times. Haseloff's interior minister Holger Stahlknecht (CDU) wanted to appoint the controversial Police Union leader Rainer Wendt as Cabinet under-secretary, but his anti-left views sparked a controversy among the coalition partners. His appointment was retracted due to pressure by SPD and Greens.

Then, in December, there was a large controversy about the broadcasting fee that was due to be increased from 17.50 € to 18.36 €. The coalition contract stated that the government would advocate for a stable fee, but the coalition partners interpreted this line differently. While SPD and Greens favored the increase to ensure a functioning public broadcasting service and laid out that all other states already had voted for the increase, plus inflation also has to be included into the calculation (the fee has been stable for some years), the CDU took the line as it was written. As some CDU deputies are not opposed to work with the AfD, it seemed possible that CDU and AfD would vote down the fee increase in the Landtag, effectively ending the coalition. Haseloff solved this crisis by a) withdrawing the proposal and basically letting the courts decide (public broadcasting service representative had filed a lawsuit) b) firing his interior minister Stahlknecht, in whom SPD and Greens lost confidence, especially after a non-announced interview where he flirted with forming a CDU minority government with AfD support.

Haseloff might be more conservative, but he is reliable for his coalition partners. If Kenya gets a majority again, then it doesn't seem unlikely that it will be continued under his leadership. But as the CDU members in Saxony-Anhalt will have to vote on whether they will agree to a new coalition contract, there might be some opposition if the Greens' influence rises, especially since many Christian Democrats are dissatisfied with the performance of the Green agriculture minister.

CDU+SPD+FDP ("Germany")

A Germany coalition hasn't been a thing for over 50 years (only Berlin, Bremen and Saarland ever had them in the early stages of the federal republic), but if it gets a majority, some CDU members will definitely look into it. The CDU base would obviously prefer a coalition with the FDP over a continuation of Kenya, but Haseloff himself isn't too excited about a potential cooperation with the liberals. They also campaign against his government right now. Plus, the FDP hasn't been in state parliament for 10 years now - Therefore, the party might be an unpredictable coalition partner.

CDU+Greens+FDP ("Jamaica")

Jamaica would combine the worst traits of both a Kenya and Germany coalition: More influence for the Greens (CDU base wouldn't like that) and the unpredictable FDP (Haseloff wouldn't like that). I would consider this option to be the least likely of the three, also due to the fact that the Greens would be somewhere in between two larger center-right parties. That could alienate the more left-wing parts of the Green base, especially if the Liberals scored more seats than the Greens (which isn't too unlikely, since the polls are close and usually, polls in Eastern states tend to overestimate the support for the Green Party).

What the public prefers

In their most recent poll, FGW asked the pollees to rate the parties currently represented in the Landtag on a scale from -5 (horrible) to +5 (excellent), and that's the result:



Greens are rated quite bad, which is not untypical for an Eastern state. There are no crosstab numbers available, but I would assume that ofc AfD voters, but also CDU voters would rate the Greens quite low. This might be important for coalition considerations, if Haseloff (who is not state party leader) doesn't want to alienate his base.

This also explains the following result: CDU/SPD/FDP is the only coalition with a net positive support, while all other options are in the negative double digits. So if there is the choice between Kenya and Germany, I would rate it as a toss-up right now, the coalition formation could go either way.



So, what does this mean for federal politics?
Not much, it is just a state election and even if the Greens were out of government, that won't influence federal polling too much.

Nevertheless, if the CDU performs quite well (not losing more than 2 pts.) and the Greens are in the single digits (or get overtaken by FDP even), the race for the first place in federal polling might go for the Christian Democrats (+CSU) for now. 

[Flyersfan232]

As the old thread seems to have been deleted, I thought I'd just start new one as the other German election megathread is reserved for federal elections only.

Saxony-Anhalt will go to the polls on 6th of June, and it is the only state the CDU has to defend this year. Minister-President Reiner Haseloff has been governing for 10 years now and is seeking a third term, which he is likely to get. From 2011 until 2016 he governed in a black-red coalition with the SPD, and since 2016, the CDU has been in a coalition with SPD and Greens (so-called Kenya coalition).
Saxony-Anhalt as an Eastern state has always had a stronger Left Party and in 2016, the AfD got a record gain for a party out of nothing (24.3 %).

The 2016 election looked like this:

CDU: 29.8 % (30 seats)
AfD: 24.3 % (25)
Left: 16.3 % (16)
SPD: 10.6 % (11)
Greens: 5.2 % (5)
FDP: 4.9 %
Free Voters: 2.2 %

Polling indicates a relatively stable political landscape, continuing the German tradition of re-electing incumbents: CDU with moderate losses, AfD stable, Left with large-scaled losses, SPD stable, Greens and FDP with gains, Free Voters with gains.

One poll had the AfD up as largest party, but that seemed to be an outlier.

The average of the three most recent polls (all from this week) is the following (with seat numbers calculated according to Saintue-Lague's distrubution method, for the sake of comparison, I assumed that the total seat count will be 90 again):

CDU: 27.3 % (27)
AfD: 24.3 % (24)
Left: 11.3 % (11)
SPD: 10.3 % (10)
Greens: 9.7 % (10)
FDP: 8.0 % (8)
Free Voters: 3.0 %

The race for the third spot is widely open, while it seems like that the CDU will retain its position as largest party. The Free Voters might surprise us all by taking the 5 percent threshold, but it doesn't seem too likely as of now.

The following coalitions could be politically possible (both the Germany and the Jamaica coalition might not get a majority though):
CDU+SPD+Greens ("Kenya"): 47/90
CDU+SPD+FDP ("Germany"): 45/90
CDU+Greens+FDP ("Jamaica"): 45/90

The CDU state party in Saxony-Anhalt is quite conservative, so some CDU state legislators might flirt with a cooperation with the AfD, but Reiner Haseloff has been strongly opposing those ideas. A Thuringia-like scenario can pretty much be excluded, that would be a disaster for CDU and FDP in a federal election year.

what about free voters

[Astatine]

what about free voters

They're below 5 percent, it's not really likely they make it into parliament, although I wouldn't exclude this possibility.

[Astatine]

The last poll is out (FGW/ZDF):

CDU: 30.0 % (+0.2)
AfD: 23.0 % (-1.3)
Left: 11.5 % (-5.8)
SPD: 10.0 % (-0.6)
Greens: 9.0 % (+3.8)
FDP: 6.5 % (+1.6)
Free Voters: 3.0 % (+0.8)

45.0 % would be needed for a majority (10 % going to parties below 5 %), making all three aforementioned coalition options a possibility. FGW has a quite good track record when it comes to accurate predictions, so I think we are likely to see an outcome in this range.

If the CDU breaks the psychologically important mark of 30 % which would even mean gains compared to 2016, I'd expect the federal CDU/CSU lead to stabilize, while an underwhelming showing for the Greens and FDP (they were both overestimated in RLP polling this year) might give both parties a slight drop in the polls. I don't think that the Free Voters will enter the Landtag, they might have a good performance like in BW though.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Seems as if the results will cement the status quo. But even if they don't, their importance for federal politics will probably be limited.

The only relevant questions are: (a) Does the CDU remain the strongest party? (b) Does the 'Kenya coalition' keep its majority? Both appears to be the case. And if both is the case, nobody in Berlin will spare a second thought about what's going on in the East German wilderness.

[Astatine]

I had expected the FGW poll to be the last ahead of the election, but INSA got another one:

CDU: 27.0 % (-2.8)
AfD: 26.0 % (+1.7)
Left: 12.0 % (-4.3)
SPD: 10.0 % (-0.6)
Greens: 8.0 % (+2.8)
FDP: 7.0 % (+2.1)
Free Voters: 3.0 % (+0.8)

INSA tends to overestimate the AfD, so I guess it can pretty much be excluded that they become largest party.

[Lord Halifax]

AfD tends to overestimate the AfD

Cocky bastards.

[CumbrianLefty]

AfD tends to overestimate the AfD

Cocky bastards.

Very possibly true, though.

[Lord Halifax]

AfD tends to overestimate the AfD

Cocky bastards.

Very possibly true, though.

It's true of most political parties.

[Unimog]

My prediction:

CDU: 27.0 % (-2.8
AfD: 28.0 % (+2.7)
Left: 11.0 % (-5.3)
SPD: 9.0 % (-1.6)
Greens: 10.0 % (+4.8
FDP: 6.0 % (+1.1

[President Johnson]

Final prediction:

CDU: 26.7%
AfD: 25.5%
Die Linke: 11.7%
Greens: 9.5%
SPD: 9.2%
FDP: 6.6%

[Astatine]

My prediction:

CDU: 27.5 %
AfD: 25.2 %
Left: 10.9 %
SPD: 10.2 %
Greens: 8.1 %
FDP: 6.2 %
Free Voters: 3.4 %

[buritobr]

What happened to the left and center-left parties? The sum of Linke+Grüne+SPD is not reaching 1/3. They were not performing too bad in the polls in 2020, as we can see here https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm

They fell in early 2021

[Astatine]

What happened to the left and center-left parties? The sum of Linke+Grüne+SPD is not reaching 1/3. They were not performing too bad in the polls in 2020, as we can see here https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm

They fell in early 2021

While the numbers for the SPD have been relatively stable at about 10-12 % (same with the Greens, 9-12 %), the Left Party saw a larger dip in the polls from 16-17 to 10-12 %.

The current federal trend for the Left Party isn't too good either, so this might be a reason for the party's decline. The Left Party's positions on Covid-19 restrictions aren't really getting any attention, then there's the issue with Sahra Wagenknecht... - I guess those are all factors contributing to the Left's poor performance in general. Their top candidate in Saxony-Anhalt isn't really well known additionally, and unlike last time, when a red-red-green coalition was at least a hypothetical possibility, it's quite clear that the party will land on the opposition benches once again.

We'll see more tomorrow about inter-party losses/gains in the exit polls, but if I had to guess, the Left is probably losing votes to AfD and Greens, and a good chunk of 2016 Left voters won't go to the polls this year.

[buritobr]

Yes, unfortunately, Sahra Wagenknecht has some views related to the pandemic close to Bolsonaro's views. Is she an important member of the party yet?

[jaichind]

Prediction

CDU      28
AFD      23
Linke    13
SPD      12
Green     9
FDP        6
FW         3

[Astatine]

Yes, unfortunately, Sahra Wagenknecht has some views related to the pandemic close to Bolsonaro's views. Is she an important member of the party yet?

She was elected top candidate for the NRW list in the federal elections, but with mere 61 %. Support for her within the party is dwindling (same with her husband Oskar Lafontaine).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Prediction

CDU      28
AFD      23
Linke    13
SPD      12
Green     9
FDP        6
FW         3

Who are you supporting?
I can’t make my mind up, but I don’t want AfD in (state) government.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, unfortunately, Sahra Wagenknecht has some views related to the pandemic close to Bolsonaro's views. Is she an important member of the party yet?

She was elected top candidate for the NRW list in the federal elections, but with mere 61 %. Support for her within the party is dwindling (same with her husband Oskar Lafontaine).

Now there's a blast from the past......