Some surprising late developments for the state elections in BW and RP on Sunday:
# in BW, the Greens are now 8-10% ahead of the CDU, after a close race a few months ago
# the FDP is rising slightly (+ above 2016 levels) and maybe even the AfD (but below 2016)
# Left still projected below the threshold
# SPD is where it always has been
# in RP, the SPD seems to have pulled ahead of the CDU by a few points, thanks to the MaLu Dreyer incumbency bonus (same as before the 2016 election).
# Green voters are getting cold feet, won’t vote for the unknown and vote SPD instead (in fact, the Greens dropped from 20% a year ago to 10% now - while the SPD gained the same).
# AfD maybe rising slightly, but all within the MoE and below 2016
# FDP falling slightly again after some increase in the last few weeks
# the big surprise could be the centrist, municipal-based Free Voters - who seem to gain CDU and FDP voters and could get close to the 5% threshold
Will it hurt Laschet's chances of becoming the Unions' Chancellor candidate if the CDU loses both elections?
