French presidential election, 2022

[MaxQue]

EXIT POLL: Macron & Le Pen tied at 24%, according to the Belgian press, with Mélenchon at 19%.

https://twitter.com/lalibrebe/status/1513180132055392256

Zemmour and Pecresse both on 8% in the same source.

Which would make 17% for Jadot and the also-rans. Doubtful.

[MaxQue]

Is there a page where the results will be updated?

https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/presidentielle-2022/index.html

[MaxQue]

Ruffin 2027 I guess.

Oh i suppose the greens will run again, PCF will run, NPA will run, Macron will say he is a leftist, animalist party will run, a newly feminist party might run, the party of the left-wing agrarians might run, perhaps some kind of left-wing scientific socialist party, the two trotskyist parties, a maoist party and we also need a stalinist party and maybe a digital pirate party or a pro-federal european party. And Taubira will also run because why not.

Some will consider Ruffin too extreme, others will find him too soft. We apparently learned nothing from 2017, nothing.

If Le Pen takes this, may embarassment haunt you till the last of your days.

Macron is term-limited if he wins.

[MaxQue]

All that's left to report is Paris I and XX, Marseille XIII arrondissements, Villeurbanne and the overseas vote. Good for Meluche, but not good enough -- Ipsos likely underestimated the Le Pen-Méluche margin by 1 point.

Through, it seems the Paris and Marseille aren't added at all until all of it reports.

[MaxQue]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

France long has had a largely class-based voting pattern. I'd be surprised if sexist views of any kind really could create this kind of gender gap, since it's even more nonsensical than usual to think of women as a cohesive voter block.

He has been accused of sexual harassment by 8 different women.

[MaxQue]

Can Someone explain to me, Zemmmour doing very strongly in Paris XVI, Nevily Sur Seine etc (upwards of 16%!!!!)? The closest resemblance to these electorates seems like Wentworth or North Sydney. These electorates, no matter how anti-labor they are, would never vote for a far-right candidate. Similarly Kensington and Chelsea had very low UKIP vote shares.

Kensington and Chelsea had among the 'best' results for Reclaim in the London mayoral election. The kind of far-right person who refused to vote for UKIP because it was full of icky poor people.

[MaxQue]

Putinists, Jews and pedophiles for Zemmour?

[MaxQue]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

Still was the case this year, but Macron mumbers are a bit misleading, as his wife is the one owning their house.

Pécresse was, by far, the wealthiest candidate.

[MaxQue]

Who are these Zemmour-Macron voters?

A lot of them very rich people, who are more likely to see le Pen as unacceptably "common".

Yeah. Though according to this (from 2017 so admittedly out of date) Le Pen is richer than Macron—and Mélenchon is richer than both lol.

how did Mélenchon became rich? book deals?

Mainly being a politician since the 80's and buying a cheap apartment in Paris in that era (and selling it in the last decade).

[MaxQue]

Is it the 2022 debate or it's a rerun of the 2017 one?

[MaxQue]

Out of curiosity do we even know if the overseas results are actually accurate? Isn’t kinda early to be getting results?

I assume it’s for reasons but it’s odd that people are already counting votes where it’s like 2 o’clock.

They voted yesterday, as everything must be closed at 8PM France time.

[MaxQue]

Overseas from La Libre:

Venezuela: Macron: 88%, Le Pen : 12%, Participation : 16%

Panama & Jamaica: Macron : 76%, Le Pen : 24%, Participation : 33%

USA Macron Percentages:
- Atlanta: 87,1%, 29.4% Participation
- Boston: 95.5%, 39.2% Participation
- Houston: 86.1%, 36.8% Participation
- Los Angeles: 87.4%, 25.9% Participation
- New York: 93.5%, 40% Participation
- San Francisco: 93.7%, 41.2% Participation
- Washington: 91.3%, 37.1% Participation
- Miami: 76%, 29.2% Participation

Canada Macron Percentages:

- Montreal: 87.7%, 37.9% Participation
- Toronto: 89.6%, 38.7% Participation
- Québec: 74.5%, 39% Participation

Quebec City is working overtime to become the Canadian version of Miami.