2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JevinHodge/status/1613947145631170562?s=20&t=32KoxluWPI_...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JevinHodge/status/1641833699959521280
Jevin Hodge OUT for AZ-01 2024

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1708919013387223395?t=eJKw1RqJ389u89F...

So in response to all the stuff that happened last week, the AZ crazy caucus started to make calls for a primary challenger to Ciscomani. Someone may have answered the call.

Winn ran in 2022 and got 18.7% in a 5-way primary.  She's ran in Maricopa before that, and while on a school board, tried very hard to politicize it.  She's previous been active with Tuscon TV, and when she ran in 2022, got endorsements from the usual state crazy politicians of note in before 2022. And she seemingly supports most of the radical proposals coming from that corner.

Ciscomani should be fine and I don't think he's at much risk of losing the primary. Schweikert, on the other hand could very well be taken down in a primary. He is pretty much the last of the old establishment politicians in power in AZ politics and obviously that causes friction with the base. The problem for MAGA though is that district represents the North Phoenix/Scottsdale areas which has a larger proportion of McCainites compared to the state, and those people are going to vote in droves to save him.  

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

Didn't even DR Oz win this district though?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

D+1*

https://twitter.com/daniellamicaela/status/1710374401835712631?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...

*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

Even if McCarthy was resigning (which he denied), Trump got over 60% here. It would not come close to flipping.

It probably won't flip but I wouldn't be surprised to see a weak R win in the special similar to KS-04 2017, and NE-01/NY-23 in 2022.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1713931952594764238

He’s unlikely to win, but if he runs a strong campaign he could come closer than O’Halleran did. Also Crane is the type of candidate I can potentially see a Boebert-style collapse for. That being said he’s fairly uncontroversial for a hardcore Trumper, and I have a feeling he’ll run against Mark Kelly in 2028.

Crane could definitely go down if he’s asleep at the wheel and it isn’t too Republican a year.

Do you think Prescott will shift left? I feel like that's probably what it would take for Democrats to actually win this seat.

They would need both Prescott/Sedona (Yavapai county) to swing their way along with Pinal county along with massive turnout with natives in Apache county and a further leftward swing in Flagstaff (Coconino county). Maricopa, Graham, and Mohave are solid blue counties and will swing left and vote like D+75/85/35 respectively but that won't make a difference.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Just saying that Crane’s seat is quite demographically similar to Boebert’s seat, and we all know how that ended up.

Boebert's seat has far more upscale ski areas and wealthy whites. Crane's is more rundown and more polarized (ie Native Americans vs rural whites).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Republican Debbie Lesco (AZ-08) will not seek re-election.

The most boring district in the entire state imo. Its just miles and miles of cookie cutter suburbia in the desert.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/ryanc_2025/status/1735861970560000263?t=UBkqEmWs3tW5VgFpIAxR...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/missycottersmas/status/1737995798141599874?t=bzlx29NWEd47-oh...
Congrats on Jen Kiggans for winning a 2nd term!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/missycottersmas/status/1737995798141599874?t=bzlx29NWEd47-oh...
Congrats on Jen Kiggans for winning a 2nd term!

I feel like VA-02 and NJ-07 are the most glaring recruitment failures for House Democrats. Doesn’t mean either of them can’t lose, but the fields in both races look pretty underwhelming.

With Trump on the ballot it provides a lot of contrast to generic, "boring", normal Republicans and thus improves voters image of them. We saw this in both 2016 and 2020, but yeah it doesn't help when you can't recruit a decent opponent either.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/JRMajewski/status/1764022617726394685
Lol

The GOP candidate recruitment and control this time around is leaps and bounds better than it was in 2022 for sure. The only noticeable errors they have this time is Kari Lake in AZ and Joe Kent in WA-03. But the overall candidate quality tier is much higher.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

The folks over at Split Ticket have moved the AZ Senate race towards the Democrats.

No more tossups, according to them. (I personally believe MI, MT, and OH all qualify though).
https://twitter.com/splitticket_/status/1765801426092273977?s=46

Michigan is not a toss-up. Slotkin is pretty clearly favored there.

No she's not. The Senate race was closer than the Presidential race despite Peters have incumbency and the "motorbike" appeal.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ron Eller EASILY defeats Andrew Smith in a surprisingly large victory in the MS-02 primary. He now has the prestige of taking on Bennie Thompson in the general election. The current rating for this seat is Safe D, but Thompson had his worst performance since 2004 last year with the black belt trending R. In the process, he finally lost Warren county (home of Vicksburg). It is possible that Eller could crack 40% this year and hold Thompson under 60% this year if he plays his cards right.