2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

And news anchors are very potent candidates. I definitely think we have a very good shot this year, and the Harrisburg area trending D quickly is going to help.

[Tekken_Guy]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

Never heard of her. Is she a lock to win the primary?

[Senator Incitatus]

News anchors are always strong candidates.

[wbrocks67]

Here's what I've seen so far for Q3

Dems:
Adam Schiff (CA): $6.4M
Tammy Baldwin (WI): $3.1M
Elissa Slotkin (MI): $3M
Ruben Gallego (AZ): $3M
Gloria Johnson (TN): $1.3M
Andy Kim (NJ): $1M

GOP:
Marsha Blackburn (TN): $2.7M
Bernie Moreno (OH): $1.1M ( +$3M in candidate loan)
Matt Dolan (OH): $1.1M ( +$3M in candidate loan)

[wbrocks67]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

Never heard of her. Is she a lock to win the primary?

Possibly- the field is pretty big though. So she likely has a better chance too since it may not take much to win in the crowded field. She's def the strongest of the bunch I think.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

News anchors are always strong candidates.

People say that but I can't think of any examples of any actually winning.

[wbrocks67]

News anchors are always strong candidates.

People say that but I can't think of any examples of any actually winning.

I think it definitely helped Salazar in FL and Hinson in IA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone but McLaughlin has Biden ahead on GCB he is doing the same thing as Trafalgar did last time Rs 48/41 and Ds lead 44/43

[Roll Roons]

News anchors are always strong candidates.

People say that but I can't think of any examples of any actually winning.

I think it definitely helped Salazar in FL and Hinson in IA

Eric Sorensen in IL was a TV meteorologist and a certain someone who shall not be named probably wouldn’t have come as close as she did in AZ if she hadn’t been a longtime TV anchor.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

Never heard of her. Is she a lock to win the primary?

I wouldn’t say she’s a lock just yet, but being a popular former news anchor, she has the name recognition advantage locked down, which is probably the most important thing in a primary.

[Spectator]

PA-10 is weird. Consistently votes Democrat for Governor and Senate (2022 I think Fetterman lost it by only a few hundred votes), but yet Perry seems to not have any huge issues, save 2018. And he’s very far right too, which is all the more confusing as to his overperformance. Any other examples in any seats where a relatively extreme House incumbent keeps winning despite the other party doing well in that seat upballot?

[Pericles]

PA-10 is weird. Consistently votes Democrat for Governor and Senate (2022 I think Fetterman lost it by only a few hundred votes), but yet Perry seems to not have any huge issues, save 2018. And he’s very far right too, which is all the more confusing as to his overperformance. Any other examples in any seats where a relatively extreme House incumbent keeps winning despite the other party doing well in that seat upballot?

It voted for Trump by a few points, so you'd expect a Republican to win there. Pennsylvania Democrats have unusually strong statewide incumbents (and in 2022 still got a great boost from candidate quality).

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

PA-10 is weird. Consistently votes Democrat for Governor and Senate (2022 I think Fetterman lost it by only a few hundred votes), but yet Perry seems to not have any huge issues, save 2018. And he’s very far right too, which is all the more confusing as to his overperformance. Any other examples in any seats where a relatively extreme House incumbent keeps winning despite the other party doing well in that seat upballot?

Pennsylvania consistently votes Democrats by double digits for governor, yet is close Presidentially.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Perry is very easy to run a campaign against, no one likes the freedom caucus

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

Didn't even DR Oz win this district though?

[Spectator]

Alaska Republicans are attacking a grieving widow for not voting in the inconsequential House Speaker race. I can’t imagine that’ll play out well: https://mustreadalaska.com/peltola-misses-another-historic-house-vote-but-tells-fairbanks-juneau-voters-to-get-out-and-cast-their-ballots/

[wbrocks67]

Alaska Republicans are attacking a grieving widow for not voting in the inconsequential House Speaker race. I can’t imagine that’ll play out well: https://mustreadalaska.com/peltola-misses-another-historic-house-vote-but-tells-fairbanks-juneau-voters-to-get-out-and-cast-their-ballots/

Peltola +15 incoming.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Solid Dem recruit in PA-10

https://twitter.com/TomLehmanWGAL/status/1709510833942741052

This is the year, I feel it. Seriously though, he’s the chair of the freedom caucus, we need to use that title against him

Didn't even DR Oz win this district though?

The freedom caucus is toxic to any district less than like Trump+9-10. No one supports them. The voters however, might not be aware of this because they don't pay attention to politics much, which might be why Perry has skated by. But any appeal he has can be destroyed very easily by a strong candidate

[Atlas Force]

You know, it wouldn't be the first time a Republican congressman from the Northeast named Scott went down because he acted like he was in a Safe R district...

 

[Pollster]

News anchors are always strong candidates.

People say that but I can't think of any examples of any actually winning.

I think it definitely helped Salazar in FL and Hinson in IA

Eric Sorensen in IL was a TV meteorologist and a certain someone who shall not be named probably wouldn’t have come as close as she did in AZ if she hadn’t been a longtime TV anchor.

Ronchetti in New Mexico was also a meteorologist and overperformed statewide twice. The longtime mayor of Oklahoma City who narrowly lost the gubernatorial primary was also a prominent news anchor before his political career, and the current mayor of Jacksonville FL who was elected earlier this year in a modest upset was as well. Others include Rebecca Kleefisch, Marjorie Margolies Mezvinsky, Dan Patrick, and (believe it or not) Sarah Palin.

[Lief 🗽]

D+1*

https://twitter.com/daniellamicaela/status/1710374401835712631?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...

*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

[GeorgiaModerate]

D+1*

https://twitter.com/daniellamicaela/status/1710374401835712631?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...
*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

McCarthy has already denied he's resigning and says he intends to run for reelection.

[Roll Roons]

D+1*

https://twitter.com/daniellamicaela/status/1710374401835712631?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...

*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

Even if McCarthy was resigning (which he denied), Trump got over 60% here. It would not come close to flipping.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You know, it wouldn't be the first time a Republican congressman from the Northeast named Scott went down because he acted like he was in a Safe R district...

 

That was one of the few bright spots of the 2016 elections.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

D+1*

https://twitter.com/daniellamicaela/status/1710374401835712631?s=46&t=o2Rmfe...

*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

Even if McCarthy was resigning (which he denied), Trump got over 60% here. It would not come close to flipping.

It probably won't flip but I wouldn't be surprised to see a weak R win in the special similar to KS-04 2017, and NE-01/NY-23 in 2022.