UK Election - Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

What does St. Silver know about British elections and that stuff?

He knows math, which is all you really need to know to project elections, whether they be in the UK, US or Uzbekistan.  I'm willing to wager Silver will be right and the British models wrong.

Well well well... (sorry if this has been pointed out before.)

And, btw. Nope. The US has no elections that rival Britain's in complexity. It'll be a cold day in hell when an American, on his first attempt, doesn't do worse than the British way of doing these things. They know their math too, you know.

[minionofmidas]

Labour: 3.9 million votes, 121 seats
Liberal Democrats: 3.1 million votes, 23 seats

Awesome

England Results:
LD 24.8%, 15 Seats
Lab 24.1%, 59 Seats

An absolute tragedy for any democratic system.

Please, maybe the LibDems should work harder at building a base- other than yuppies.

How does that have any relevance? Why should one party get a built in advantage simply because of the type of supporters they have?

They cant seal the deal. If they were more popular they would be able to win these close seats they are continually losing.  My cheap insult aside- they have to look inward and broaden their appeal or get a core group of supporters.

That doesn't make any sense logically. Why should Labour and the Conservatives get more seats just because their supporters happen to live geographically closer together?

Because it's a first past the post system with more than two parties in it, and that is what first past the post does in that situation.

[minionofmidas]

There will be another election before Obama runs for reelection. Bank on it. The Lib Dems need to learn from this time and regroup.

I don't get what they did wrong during the campaign

Pretended they had a chance to win nationally. Besides sounding delusional (no one with any sort of a clue considers it even remotely possible that Labour can be displaced from the top two), that just is not their role, and it's not what their own voters want them to be.
They've made the same mistake before. With the same consequences.

[minionofmidas]

What exactly is this Labour and Co-operative deal?

The Co-operative Party are a group of self-important lefties who endorse some Labour candidates who grovel a lot. They're totally irrelevant these days.

Oh so the UK has their own version of NY's Working Families Party?

It's kind of annoying because the Telegraph's map that I'm looking at colors those seats in gray for "other parties" instead of red for Labour.

I guess. I think they have much less influence than the WFP, which does have clout in some elections. They're more comparable to the United Citizens Party, or whatever it's called, in South Carolina, in terms of sheer irrelevance. (Al might correct me here, but I think it's safe to say that the Co-op label means almost nothing these days.)

All of this is entirely false (the Telegraph being worst.)

The closest comparison within the American system would be one of those caucus thingies, this one for leftie intellectuals. It's not a party except in name.

[minionofmidas]

Fermanagh and South Tyrone has been in recounts for hours. Apparently 8 votes separate the two candidates.

No. There have been 2 recounts, the latter has Gildernew ahead by 2 votes.
A 3rd recount will begin later this morning.
(See NI thread)

Two votes!

The LDs gained Winchester by two votes in 1997. After the millionth recount.

[minionofmidas]

I'm still reeling from East Belfast, to be honest.  I know that Robinson had that scandal, but how the hell did the Alliance go from third place with 11% in 2005 to a win now?

UCUNF is a bad joke. TUV is a vile joke. That left no alternative (Catholics don't count). Long is the Alliance's best known politician. She's also Lord Mayor of Belfast (a largely ceremonial position... I think... might be wrong...)
It's still a shock to me, but it has a logic.

[minionofmidas]

I'm hoping in the coming days someone can provide a logical explanation for the schizophrenic LibDem swings.

They are broadly like LD swings always are... the complete unpredictability of individual LD-Tory seats in the West Country has been stated over at the other thread, too... so maybe I'd better ask you to provide a logical explanation for your strange expectations.

[minionofmidas]

What's caused backlash against the Lib-Dems? Sure I never believed the Cleggmania hype but surely they were in a position to gain seats rather than lose them. I mean if Charles Kennedy can gain them seats, surely Clegg could too.

Uh, what? He's not a quarter the human being Charlie Kennedy is... and that's after he's absorbed his identical twins Cameron and Blair by osmosis.

[minionofmidas]

because they'd stretched too thin. I think, ultimately, it was a series of tactical errors on the ground that did them in.

Yep. (A LibDem saying it in this thread. Finally. I'd almost given up. )

[minionofmidas]

btw, 2.2% for Labour in Westmorland and Lonsdale. Lowest Lab share?

WOW, lol.

[minionofmidas]

Why don't LD voters want the LD's to take power, and what is it they do want from them?  In fact, what is the ideology in general of LD voters or is it all over the map. My vague impression is that in some ways the LD's are to the left of New Labor these days, but maybe that is because of my relative ignorance.

It's broadly a protest party. It's broadly a collection of independent MPs. This is all coming out sounding wrong, but...

LDs (or the ones that matter - those who make a seat win or loss) tend to vote for someone they view as the better candidate locally while washing their hands off the two-horse race for power at Westminster.

Historically, of course, if Labour are the Workers' Movement, and the Tories are the Dominant Middle Class Tradition (including in their vote base also the people who're objectively workers but don't want to be), then the LDs are the Dissident Middle Class Tradition. Perma-opposition is sort of implied in that setup.
What kind of dissidence, of course, has changed over the years. Once upon a time it used to be religious nonconformist farmers (esp. ones who weren't English), and in some areas that still matters. Later you got not-as-traditional suburbanites (so, Kingston not Beckenham), college town people, and in 2005 (seems to have been a vote loss here in 2010) some Asians. Etc.

Of course, the unreasoning always-Lib-Dem, doesn't-care-what-constituency-he's-in exists (as does the fanboy who really thought Clegg could win. Not common though; most Brits understand a little bit about their political system), but he's a rarer beast than his Labour and Conservative counterparts. And he's more evenly spread over the country.

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't have thought it before the election, what with the new boundaries. Why did the Respect vote hold up so well here when it collapsed on the East End?

Yaqoob is an important player in local politics and has ties to the Birmingham Central Mosque. Respect in Birmingham is essentially her personality cult party.

Plus, Godsiff has offended too many Muslim voters. With a decent Labour candidate, Respect would probably have receded as elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

Sometimes you wonder how voters know these things... at St Albans, Labour lost the seat in 2005 and now collapsed completely while the LDs surged, and the seat now looks a legitimate target for them the next time around. How many people genuinely changed their minds, how many just stopped tactically voting for Labour, and how many have ESP and understood that the LDs were better placed to win despite being twenty points behind in 2005?

[minionofmidas]

Just spotted...

Gulzaman Khan      Christian Party

polled 482 votes in Walsall South.

[minionofmidas]

Just spotted...

Gulzaman Khan      Christian Party

polled 482 votes in Walsall South.

Why was the Christian party running a Muslim candidate?

No idea (maybe he's a convert, who knows. Or maybe the party is being infiltrated by Al Qaeda. ) There candidate at Nottingham East was Parvaiz Sardar.

EDIT: Oh wow. They have quite a few Muslim and Hindu names! (And, less surprisingly, quite a few West African ones.) Complete list:

Christian Party (71)
Louise Wynne-Jones (Aberconwy)
Juliana Brimicombe (Aldershot)
Sue Gray (Aldridge-Brownhills)
Charith Fernando (Birmingham Edgbaston)
Timothy Gray (Birmingham Erdington)
Deborah Hey-Smith (Birmingham Perry Barr)
Samuel Leeds (Birmingham Selly Oak)
George Hargreaves (Barking)
Steve Hewett (Bath)
Shafiq-Uz Zaman (Blackley and Broughton)
Jeffrey Green (Brecon and Radnorshire)
Errol Williams (Brent Central)
Aamir Bhatti (Brentford and Isleworth)
David Hews (Buckingham)
Derek Thomson (Cardiff North)
Clive Bate (Cardiff South)
Maureen Smith (Chatham and Aylesford)
Richard Sexton (Chippenham)
David Griffiths (Clwyd West)
James Gitau (Croydon Central)
Novlette Williams (Croydon North)
Paula Watson (Dagenham and Rainham)
Suzanne Fernandes (Ealing Central and Acton)
Petar Ljubisic (Ealing North)
Mehboob Anil (Ealing Southall)
Clive Morrison (Edmonton)
Anthony Williams (Enfield North)
Marion Johnson (Filton and Bradley Stoke)
David Walton (Gateshead)
Edward Adeleye (Greenwich and Woolwich)
Maxine Hargreaves (Hackney North and Stoke Newington)
John Williams (Hackney South and Shoreditch)
Oluyemi Adeeko (Harlow)
Aneel Shahzad (Hayes and Harlington)
Johnson Olukotun (Hornchurch and Upminster)
Steve Lyon (Horsham)
Donald Boyd (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey)
Kim Christofi (Ipswich)
Ryan Hessell (Leigh)
Sonika Bhatti (Leyton and Wanstead)
Heidi Simmonds (Maidstone and the Weald)
Peter Harrison (Manchester Gorton)
Timothy Webb (Northampton North)
Andrew Holland (Norwich North)
Parvaiz Sardar (Nottingham East)
Gulzar Nazir (Oldham East and Saddleworth)
Richard Masih (Pendle)
Donald Watson (Pontypridd)
George Ambroze (Preston)
Scott Beverley (Redditch)
Ruby Akhtar (Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner) (Christian first name though)
Ray Green (Sheffield Hallam)
Sunil Chaudhary (Slough)
Ted Strike (Stockton South)
Geoffrey Macharia (Streatham)
Samuel Jacob (Stretford and Urmston)
Alastair Kirk (Swindon South)
Charlene Detheridge (Tamworth)
Arinola Araba (Thurrock)
Shereen Paul (Tooting)
Abimbola Kadara (Tottenham)
John Harrold (Vale of Glamorgan)
Lana Martin (Vauxhall)
Babar Shakir (Walsall North)
Gulzaman Khan (Walsall South)
Ashar Mall (Walthamstow)
Michael Flynn (Wansbeck)
Gabriela Fajardo (Westminster North)
David Martin (Wimbledon)
Stuart Dearsley (Worthing West)
David Owen (Ynys Mon)

[minionofmidas]

I noticed UKIP also ran some Asian candidates. It would be pretty weird if the BNP did as well.

They had a guy running whose father is Turkish Cypriot (and had connections to the Grey Wolves ) but whose mother is English.

[minionofmidas]

Just realised something quite funny; Labour must have led within the boundaries of the old Galloway & Upper Nithsdale this year. Haha.

I've always wondered about the SNP collapse there... I guess Labour is where these voters went (and their 97 SNP vote was largely tactical)?

[minionofmidas]

Were UKIP spoilers?

If all the UKIP voters had voted Tory, would the Tories have a majority?
The answer, btw, is "yes, barely". They'd be adding 21 seats, which gives them exactly 326 seats, plus the speaker, plus likely Thirsk & Malton. Here's the list:

Format: Constituency (winner's lead on Tory / UKIP vote / share of UKIP voters that the Tories needed to swing... which is also what the table is ordered by)

Bolton West (92 / 1901 / 5%)
Southampton Itchen (192 / 1928 / 10%)
Hampstead & Kilburn (42 / 408 / 11%)
Dorset Mid & Poole North (269 / 2109 / 13%)*
Solihull (175 / 1200 / 15%)*
Dudley North (649 / 3267 / 20%)
Great Grimsby (714 / 2043 / 35%)
Telford (983 / 2428 / 41%)
Wirral South (531 / 1274 / 42%)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (1552 / 3491 / 45%)
Wells (800 / 1711 / 47%)*
Plymouth Moor View (1588 / 3188 / 50%)
Walsall South (1755 / 3449 / 51%)
Walsall North (990 / 1737 / 57%)
Saint Ives (1719 / 2560 / 68%)*
Morley & Outwood (1101 / 1506 / 73%)
Derby North (613 / 829 / 74%)
Saint Austell & Newquay (1312 / 1757 / 75%)*
Cleveland East & Middlesbrough South (1677 / 1881 / 90%)
Derbyshire North East (2445 / 2636 / 93%)
Somerton & Frome (1817 / 1932 / 95%)*

Asterisk denotes LibDem seat.

[minionofmidas]

Who recognizes what this map is of?

[minionofmidas]

The thing is - there is no way of knowing how many of those UKIP voters would have voted Tory otherwise. maybe they would not have voted at all or voted BNP? We could also look at ridings where Green party and various other leftwing candidates might have cost labour a seat or two. But in any of these exercises - 1+1 never seems to equal 2.

Well, certainly. (Whether or not the BNP had a candidate too certainly has an obvious effect on UKIP results. Ahem.) But at least theoretically UKIP voters should split fairly strongly in the Tories' favor - certainly more strongly than BNP voters. And the Greens and Respect were a serious presence in just a handful of seats (and it's not clear how Green voters would split as regards Labour/Lib Dem, anyways. Not Conservative, obviously.) I figured this one works just about well enough to try it as an intellectual exercise.

[minionofmidas]

My guess was that it was deposits saved by BNP and UKIP, but I didn't actually check.

Correct as usual, sir.

BNP in Merseyside is interesting. -_-

[minionofmidas]

That's when the Orangist Skilled Working Classes fled to the suburbs and left only Irish Lumpenproletariat behind.

[minionofmidas]

That's when the Orangist Skilled Working Classes fled to the suburbs and left only Irish Lumpenproletariat behind.

Actually it's more that much of the Irish Lumpenproletariat was moved out to places like Kirkby, Runcorn and Skelmersdale, while the decline of the Port of Liverpool meant that the Orangist Skilled Working Classes were suddenly much poorer than they used to be.

And maybe had no Irish on their doorsteps anymore to instinctively vote against?

[minionofmidas]

And maybe had no Irish on their doorsteps anymore to instinctively vote against?

Not as many, anyway. Though I've always suspected that most Orange Voters were pretty old by the 1950s and the one reason for the decline of the Orange Vote was simply Orange Voters dying off.

...and their kids not following the old habit?

Shouldnt that lead to a more gradual (though just as terminal) decline?
Or I guess the Tory slum vote was highly dependent on a GOTV operation, and therefore just succumbed without a trace when it dropped below a certain critical mass. In which case many with Tory family traditions are now longterm nonvoters, of which Liverpool certainly has unusually many.
Though this year's election doesn't square with that. Liverpool's Labour swing went hand in hand with an above-average turnout increase; other places (Hull, for instance) had lower turnouts than Liverpool this year.

[minionofmidas]

So the LibDem vote share lifted by 5.76%? Obviously difficult to interpret given the low turnout figures, but that would perhaps suggest that LibDem voters are not overly concerned that the party has formed a coalition with the Tories, despite the indignant outrage displayed earlier this month.

It's not the place to look for such a swing - it's neither a winnable LD-Tory seat (where the LD coalition obviously includes a lot of soft support that might go Labour in a PR vote) nor one of those urban Social Liberal kind of places a la Cambride, Norwich or whatever. (Indeed, it's pretty hugely rural.)
In other words, if a major LD-to-Labour swing as a result of the coalition happened even here, you could start treating the most over-the-top doom scenarios you've heard anywhere as reality.
Also in other words, the seats where this deal is likely to hurt the LDs most are the places where being hurt hurts the LDs most in terms of seats. If the IRV deal comes to nowt, that is.