UK Election - Results Thread

[Silent Hunter]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

[Јas]

Buckingham Result

Bercow (Speaker) 22,860
Stevens (Ind) 10,331
Farage (UKIP 8,410

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NUM President (and future media hate figure) Ian Lavery has been comfortably elected in Wansbeck.

[Јas]

Cheltenham Result

Martin Horwood (LDem) 26,659
Mark Coote (Con) 21,739

LDem Hold with a swing to them of 4.3%   

[J. J.]

Right now, even if Lab/LibDems win the 13 seats of, they will have less than a majority.  Even throwing in SDL, they could not form a coalition with a majority.

Clegg can only be the kingmaker for the Tories.

Question, is the Alliance MP basically a nonsectarian Unionist?

[Hash]

Buckingham Result

Bercow (Speaker) 22,860
Stevens (Ind) 10,331
Farage (UKIP 8,410

Haha, good riddance to UKIP there as well.

I'm disappointed at Cornwall.

[Verily]

Right now, even if Lab/LibDems win the 13 seats of, they will have less than a majority.  Even throwing in SDL, they could not form a coalition with a majority.

Clegg can only be the kingmaker for the Tories.

Question, is the Alliance MP basically a nonsectarian Unionist?

The Alliance MP is more or less a Lib Dem. They're officially allied, same as UCU-NF and the Conservatives. Just the Alliance and the LDs have never had the opportunity to work together at Westminster before. I would expect Naomi Long to sit with the LDs.

[Silent Hunter]

Question, is the Alliance MP basically a nonsectarian Unionist?

No. For a start, "nonsectarian Unionist" is an oxymoron.

[Verily]

I'm sad that no one mentioned the Newcastle results. I was looking for an excuse to write 'the Fog on the Tyne is mine all mine, the Fog on the Tyne is all mine...' but, alas.

I'm hoping in the coming days someone can provide a logical explanation for the schizophrenic LibDem swings.

This explains everything.

Not so. Redcar? Or take a look at Hull North or Ashfield. The Lib Dems had a really bad night or coming up just short in a lot of targets while losing safe seats because they'd stretched too thin. I think, ultimately, it was a series of tactical errors on the ground that did them in.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

Disappointing but not surprising.

[Јas]

Right now, even if Lab/LibDems win the 13 seats of, they will have less than a majority.  Even throwing in SDL, they could not form a coalition with a majority.

Clegg can only be the kingmaker for the Tories.

Question, is the Alliance MP basically a nonsectarian Unionist?

The Alliance MP is more or less a Lib Dem. They're officially allied, same as UCU-NF and the Conservatives. Just the Alliance and the LDs have never had the opportunity to work together at Westminster before. I would expect Naomi Long to sit with the LDs.

We'll have to wait and see on that. In her initial statements, though acknowledging the LibDems as a sister party, I took from it that she saw herself as something more of an independent liberal than you describe - more akin to the SDLP/Labour relationship than the UCUNF deal.

She said she was open to receiving a phone call from either Brown or Cameron and would be willing to negotiate a deal in the best interests of E Belfast and NI, IIRC.

[cinyc]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

Actually, both the UKIP and BNP vote percentage is up from 2005.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Woke up again.

Currently C 298 Lab 253 LD 54 Oth 27.

The 18 seats still to declare:
Amber Valley: Locked in recounts between Lab and C.  My competition entry: Lab
Blyth Valley: Safe Lab.
Broadland: Safe C.
Buckingham: Bercow should be re-elected.
Cheltenham: LD/C marginal.  Call: LD
Devon W/Torridge: C/LD marginal.  Call: C
Dudley N: Lab/C marginal.  Call: C
Fermanagh: Locked in recounts between SF and Ind U.  My competition entry: SF
Hackney N and S: both safe Lab.
Hexham: C/LD marginal.  Call: C
Lancaster and Morecambe: both Lab/C marginals.  Call: Lab
Penrith: safe C
St Ives: safe LD
Thirsk: postponed
Wansbeck: safe Lab
Westmorland: LD/C marginal.  Call: LD

Overall this gives a range of possible results of C 301-309 plus Thirsk, Lab 257-261, LD 55-59, SF 4-5, with my call being C 304 Lab 260 LD 57.

BBC projection is C 307 Lab 258 LD 56, so presumably they have the Tories gaining from Lab two of Amber Valley, Lancaster and Morecambe (which is reasonable) and either Cheltenham or Westmorland from the LD (which I'm not so sure about).

Both Cheltenham and Westmorland were LD holds.

Updated list of seats still to declare:
Amber Valley: Locked in recounts between Lab and C.  My competition entry: Lab
Devon W/Torridge: C/LD marginal.  Call: C
Dudley N: Lab/C marginal.  Call: C
Fermanagh: Locked in recounts between SF and Ind U.  My competition entry: SF
Hackney N and S: both safe Lab.
Lancaster and Morecambe: both Lab/C marginals.  Call: Lab
Penrith: safe C
St Ives: safe LD
Thirsk: postponed

C 302-307+Thirsk Lab 257-261 LD 57-58 SF 4-5.  My call still C 304 Lab 260 LD 57.

[Verily]

Right now, even if Lab/LibDems win the 13 seats of, they will have less than a majority.  Even throwing in SDL, they could not form a coalition with a majority.

Clegg can only be the kingmaker for the Tories.

Question, is the Alliance MP basically a nonsectarian Unionist?

The Alliance MP is more or less a Lib Dem. They're officially allied, same as UCU-NF and the Conservatives. Just the Alliance and the LDs have never had the opportunity to work together at Westminster before. I would expect Naomi Long to sit with the LDs.

We'll have to wait and see on that. In her initial statements, though acknowledging the LibDems as a sister party, I took from it that she saw herself as something more of an independent liberal than you describe - more akin to the SDLP/Labour relationship than the UCUNF deal.

She said she was open to receiving a phone call from either Brown or Cameron and would be willing to negotiate a deal in the best interests of E Belfast and NI, IIRC.

Regardless, she'll have to sit with someone to get party status. I would assume that would end up being the LDs anyway.

[Phony Moderate]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

Disappointing but not surprising.

Why would a self-described "libertarian" like you support fascistic parties like UKIP and the BNP?

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

The electoral arithmetic::

RIGHT (C + DUP) = 310-315 + Thirsk
LEFT (Lab + SDLP + Grn + Hermon) = 264-268
CENTRE (LD + APNI) = 58-59
NATIONALISTS (SNP + PC) = 9

With 4 or 5 seats going SF 323 or 324 seats will be a majority.

RIGHT + NATIONALISTS = 319-324 + Thirsk, so the Tories will need to win all the five remaining marginal seats in order for this to command a majority of 2.
LEFT + CENTRE = 322-327 so again this would depend on how the remaining marginals fall whether this option has any sort of majority.
RIGHT + CENTRE = 368-374 + Thirsk so if Cameron and Clegg can cut a coalition deal there would be a working majority.
Any RIGHT minority government would have to have LD support otherwise it would be outvoted by LEFT+CENTRE.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not so.

Well, it does if you can read behind the lines The LibDems (and their ancestors from the early 1960s onwards) can appeal to almost anywhere, in theory. Which has obvious drawbacks, many of which we saw last night.

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Perfect storm.

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Both mostly reflect local government strength and (presumably) targetting issues, while there were other issues in Ashfield.

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There might be some merit in that argument, yes. Newcastle may be a case in point; I gather that they made a serious (and stupid) attempt to take out Nick Brown as well as going after the open North seat. Perhaps the euphoria of the poll boost encouraged that sort of thing. Might be interesting to find out, if we ever do.

[Verily]

The electoral arithmetic::

RIGHT (C + DUP) = 310-315 + Thirsk
LEFT (Lab + SDLP + Grn + Hermon) = 264-268
CENTRE (LD + APNI) = 58-59
NATIONALISTS (SNP + PC) = 9

With 4 or 5 seats going SF 323 or 324 seats will be a majority.

RIGHT + NATIONALISTS = 319-324 + Thirsk, so the Tories will need to win all the five remaining marginal seats in order for this to command a majority of 2.
LEFT + CENTRE = 322-327 so again this would depend on how the remaining marginals fall whether this option has any sort of majority.
RIGHT + CENTRE = 368-374 + Thirsk so if Cameron and Clegg can cut a coalition deal there would be a working majority.
Any RIGHT minority government would have to have LD support otherwise it would be outvoted by LEFT+CENTRE.

Sylvia Hermon as "Left"? Odd designation. Surely SNP + PC should be "Left" before she.

Also, while the SNP might be willing to prop up the Conservatives (although tonight's results show that that would be electoral suicide for them), Plaid never would.

[J. J.]

Also, while the SNP might be willing to prop up the Conservatives (although tonight's results show that that would be electoral suicide for them), Plaid never would.

Basically, if Lab/LibDem/SDL/Alliance would form a coalition, and someone in that group wins all outstanding seats, and SF abstains, that coalition could continue to govern.  I think it would have a two seat majority.  As soon an someone gets upset with Labor, or there is a by-election, it collapses.   We could see a dissolution or a vote of no confidence within a year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not a good night for UKIP or the BNP.

I'd disagree.  Both increased their overall share of the vote from 2005 altho a good part of that is due to them standing in more constituencies IIRC, and a case can be made that they were responsible for some of the Tory gains in close constituencies such as Broxtowe.  That isn't to say it was a great night for them, as it wasn't, but I'd say they met expectations.

[Hash]

I knew Tim Farron was popular, but holy smoking crap.

btw, 2.2% for Labour in Westmorland and Lonsdale. Lowest Lab share?

[rbt48]

If all others abstain and it is left to Cons, Lab, LD, and DUP, it looks very close.  I'd guess:
Cons - DUP: 315
Lab - LD:  317.

[Hash]

Anybody with a list of gains and loses (especially Tory losses, Labour gains, LD gains and loses)

[Јas]

St Ives Result

Andrew George (LDem) 19,619   
Derek Thomas (Con) 17,900      
Philippa Latimer (Lab) 3,751   
...      
Jonathan Rogers (Cornish Democrats) 396
Simon Reed (Mebyon Kernow) 387               


LDem Hold on a 10.4% swing to the Tories

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

SF hold Fermanagh by 4 votes.