UK Election - Results Thread

[J. J.]

[Speculation alert]

My competition entry calls only 15 of the 53 seats that haven't declared yet for the Tories.  Unusually, most of the seats still to declare are in London rather than the deeply rural areas.

For what it's worth my calls on the remaining 53 seats produce a House of Commons of C 300 (+ Thirsk and Malton) Lab 263 LD 58 DUP 8 SNP 6 SF 5 SDLP 3 PC 3 APNI 1 Grn 1 Hermon 1.

Okay, currently, 51 seats out:

Conservative     286

Labour/LD     236/50 (286)

Add 15 to the Tories:  301

Add 36 to Labour/LD:  322

Majority is 326.  They'd have to involve the other minor parties (SNP or PC ).

[Meeker]

An Independent has won in Manchester Central...

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

An Independent has won in Manchester Central...

WTF???

[Meeker]

Never mind. BBC website error

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

An Independent has won in Manchester Central...

WTF???

Now showing as a Labour hold - I think someone at the BBC is having finger trouble (Lab Gain Withington flashed up on the screen for a moment just now).

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

An Independent has won in Manchester Central...

No - it's a Labour hold.

[Dan the Roman]

[Speculation alert]

My competition entry calls only 15 of the 53 seats that haven't declared yet for the Tories.  Unusually, most of the seats still to declare are in London rather than the deeply rural areas.

For what it's worth my calls on the remaining 53 seats produce a House of Commons of C 300 (+ Thirsk and Malton) Lab 263 LD 58 DUP 8 SNP 6 SF 5 SDLP 3 PC 3 APNI 1 Grn 1 Hermon 1.

Okay, currently, 51 seats out:

Conservative     286

Labour/LD     236/50 (286)

Add 15 to the Tories:  301

Add 36 to Labour/LD:  322

Majority is 326.  They'd have to involve the other minor parties (SNP or PC ).

Well with SF abstaining and the support of the Green it would be just enough. But uh oh, you are one backbench rebel or one by-election from disaster, and with a harsh series of cuts coming.

If such were to occur, I would fully expect defections from the Liberal Democrats and maybe Labour to the Tories, and I think the nationalists would torpedo such a government before PR could be implemented. I can not figure out why anyone would want such a government.

The other thing to remember is the complete demoralization of the LD activist base. They are in no position to wage another election, and the only coalition that gives a semi-stable government is one with the Tories. Any other deal would be a bet on getting PR because in its absence they would be looking at a wipe-out in the next election.

[Lief 🗽]

Hampstead and Killburn is basically a three-way tie, but Glenda Jackson (Lab) holds on.

At this point it's looking like a Lab-Lib-SDLP (-SNP? -PC? -Green?) would be an impossible and unwieldy joke. There's no way that lasts for more than a few weeks, resulting in a snap election and probably a solid Tory majority.

Also looks like Cameron won't be able to go it alone though, without at least some concessions to the Lib Dems. Probably no electoral reform though.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

Of course there are political pitfalls and opportunities all over for every party, but think everyone can see if the Tories pley their cards right, in a minority government or in opposition, they could stand to benefit in a big way in round 2.

[useful idiot]

Since the electoral system is already rigged in favor of Labour, why would they concede on reforming the electoral system in order to form a minority govt with the Lib Dems for two years at most? It seems to me that the Lib Dems don't have much to gain by going into government with Labour, other than to get that concession.

I would think the Conservatives would be more open to reforming the electoral system, and joining with the Lib Dems would put them at well over 326(probably somewhere around 365). That way even if some of the Lib Dems break ranks it wouldn't be the end of the world, and together they have around 59% of the vote, a clear mandate.

[Iosif]

We are the cheeky girls you are the cheeky boys..

Touch my bum!

Labour hold Eltham with a 1.3% swing to the conservatives. That was my bellwether.

[k-onmmunist]

Jesus. When I left it was on one page. Now it is 67.

[Joe Republic]

I'm still reeling from East Belfast, to be honest.  I know that Robinson had that scandal, but how the hell did the Alliance go from third place with 11% in 2005 to a win now?

[useful idiot]

Why have the results coming in slowed down so much? You would think that these places would have counted their votes considering its been over 11 hours since polls closed...

[Serenity Now]

Green GAIN Brighton Pavillion

I will now accept my accolades

[Marokai Backbeat]

Hampstead and Killburn is basically a three-way tie, but Glenda Jackson (Lab) holds on.

At this point it's looking like a Lab-Lib-SDLP (-SNP? -PC? -Green?) would be an impossible and unwieldy joke. There's no way that lasts for more than a few weeks, resulting in a snap election and probably a solid Tory majority.

Also looks like Cameron won't be able to go it alone though, without at least some concessions to the Lib Dems. Probably no electoral reform though.

Yeah, I think, when all is said and done, Brown might be able to scrape up just enough votes by picking off people here there and everywhere + the LibDems, but it would be a ridiculous coalition that would be incredibly incredibly precarious, and the act would likely piss off voters. There's no need to empower Cameron and the Tories by engaging in obscene dealing when his position is just slightly less shaky as yours would be. Wait awhile, make a fuss perhaps a year down the road, and perhaps if the boat is rocked enough another election could be forced.

The sad thing is though, what you mentioned. With no solid coalition available it seems that much needed more proportional electoral reform will go forgotten once again, since the Conservatives would struggle very much under some sort of proportional representation system. Labour currently has 8.1 million votes, and the LibDems have a total of 6.4 million votes, but the LibDems have roughly a fifth of the seats that Labour does. It's an absolute disgrace for any democratic system and desperately, desperately needs fixed, because it is incredibly unfair to millions of people. Hopefully someday it's dealt with.

[cinyc]

By my math:
Conservatives should end up with 300-310 seats;
Labour should end up with 256-266 seats; and
Liberal Democrats should end up with 54-58 seats

[afleitch]

This is a strange one.

I am of course naturally dissapointed that it wasn't a better night for the Conservatives; their projected seat tally is not too shabby, they have gained more seats in one election for generations. But it's the numbers game; the SNP made no advance, the Lib Dems fell back that make things curious.

If Brown can form a government let him. There are opportunities for the Conservatives in opposition if a coalition government is not successful. I don't believe that a Labour/Lib Dem coalition could last 5 years. I don't even think that there are enough votes in the House for electoral reform amongst a coalition and amongst opposition parties. I don't think there is that much support from Labour...

Scotland was surprising; a very good night for Labour. So much so in fact it could be justified that we are 'holding England to ransom' with a strong contingent of Scottish Labour (and possibly Lib Dem) MP's voting on devolved issues that do not affect their prospective constituents. This really has to be adressed or there is a real constitutional danger.

We shall see

[Јas]

I'm still reeling from East Belfast, to be honest.  I know that Robinson had that scandal, but how the hell did the Alliance go from third place with 11% in 2005 to a win now?

I can only offer a series of fractional reasons...

The party were already on the up by 2007 - Long got 19% in the Assembly election in 2007.
Long has had an increased profile as Belfast Mayor recently and  through general media appearances (she's arguably gotten more camera time in the last year or so than party leader David Ford - she's an articulate and passionate advocate for the party). And the Party itself has had increased profile in recent months as they joined the NI Executive.

Also looks like Long got a lot of the PUP vote - she has a good working relationship with Dawn Purvis.

And of course Robinson's vote fell given the many scandals he, and his wife, have faced since Christmas.

[Franzl]

Well....it's rather disappointing that Conservatives failed to get a majority, but it's still very interesting, and I imagine it'll remain interesting throughout the day.

It would be kind of amusing if Brown somehow were able to remain in power.


Now one other thing: Why are the media making such a huge deal out of the voting problems? I'm not saying that it's a good thing that some people weren't able to vote....and if any seats hang on the balance, I don't oppose challenges in individual cases.....but seriously, the media are saying "hundreds" weren't able to vote. (Not to mention that British electoral law seems to clearly indicate that no ballot may be issued after 10pm). We're really making headline news over a couple hundred out of 40 million registered voters?

Again, I'm not saying that we shouldn't try to prevent this in the future....but the media are going WAY overboard.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I am of course naturally dissapointed that it wasn't a better night for the Conservatives; their projected seat tally is not too shabby, they have gained more seats in one election for generations.

Key word in bold.

After listening to the BBC for hours and hearing tory hacks repeat that, I respond with the usual response on the BBC. Gains are irrelevant, it's the seats that matter, and it's quite clear that the public wasn't completely taken with the Conservatives even after all the moderating 'progressive conservative' nonsense.

[Јas]

Sarah Teather (LD) looks set to win Brent Central

Meanwhile the BBC continues its remarkable obsession with following Nick Clegg's car...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ynsy Mon, Lab hold. (I'm shocked)

No incumbent MP has been defeated on The Island since the early 1950s despite it being no party's stronghold. There's a strong element of fluke to that record, but it ain't all fluke... The Island is its own little world and doesn't always follow the crowd. I think this is Owen's largest majority to date, lol.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

OOOOOOOH LORDY, Cleggers puts it all on Cameron's shoulders..... Brown should stay in bed, this is his last day as PM it looks like.

[Јas]

Clegg: Tories should have first chance to form a government