Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Flyersfan232]

it feels as if the turnout has done almost nothing to help the CDP, and might have even been a hinderence.

The LDP going "Communist Communist Communist" looks likeliest as a reason for this if it happens.

The jcp need to rebrand

[PSOL]

it feels as if the turnout has done almost nothing to help the CDP, and might have even been a hinderence.

The LDP going "Communist Communist Communist" looks likeliest as a reason for this if it happens.

The jcp need to rebrand

The current campaign was the most moderate in JCP’s history, and subsequently it was a massive flop.

I think there are two reasons for this major flop; the JCP is led by geriatrics and is subsequently an “old” party and the moderate platform alienated New Left participants who select the JCP as the lesser evil. With little new members coming in due to its leadership being disconnected from the youth, a lot of natural stagnation of its membership is taking place. There is also the alienation of previous New Left activists who see no reason for voting for a party increasingly moderating its stances across the board.

The JCP needs to sack it’s current upper brass and get more young and more female voices to represent the party. They need to signal to the other communist organizations that they are open for them to run together as an open list, and combine collective participation in both street activities and electoral alliances.

[FredLindq]

Proportional Vote

LDP:   34.66% (+1.38)
CDP:   20%     (+0.12)
Ishin:  14.01% (+7.94)
KP:     12.38% (-0.13)
JCP:     7.25% (-0.65)
DPP:    4.51% (+4.51)
RS:      3.86% (+3.86)
SDP:    1.77% (+0.08)

And KnT (Koike) 0 (-17,4).

So mainly DPP and Ishin and some what CDP gained votes from KnT. CDP gaining votes from KnT and losing to RS. No big changes at all considering blocks.
LDP and KP +1,3
Ishin, DPP and KnT -5,0
CDP, JCP, RS, SDP +3,4

[jaichind]

Yomiuri graphics on election results.

[jaichind]

LDP faction MP count shift as a result of the election

細田派(Hosoda)  89（−8） 　  
麻生派(Aso) 48（−5）
竹下派 (Takesh**ta) 46（−8）  
岸田派(Kishida) 41（−5）  
二階派(Nikai) 37（−10）
石破派(Ishiba) 13（−3）　　
石原派(Ishihara)  7  （−3）　
    

[jaichind]

I am now starting my analysis of how the PR vote mapped to the district vote.  This will take a long time because I have to map each township/city/village to the right district.  

I just did a prelim mapping and eyeballing of the data for 北海道(Hokkaido) and the result is what I guessed given the election result.

In LDP vs CDP battle
a) DPP vote mostly went with CDP
b) If the LDP have a candidate quality advantage the JRP PR vote went almost 100% for LDP
b) If the CDP have a candidate quality edge the JRP PR vote went mostly 50/50

In LDP vs CDP vs JRP battle, DPP PR vote mostly went over to JRP giving LDP a surprising edge

In the one KP vs CDP battle, even though the CDP candidate is well known who was elected in 2017 on the PR slate the JRP vote went 100% for KP producing a shocking KP victory by a solid margin.

So far it matches my guess from

It is these two blocs of seats that were the most decisive for the LDP and JRP overperformance and CDP underperformance

LDP vs CDP
         Vote share    win
LDP      53.03%      65
CDP     46.32%       34

LDP vs CDP vs JRP
         Vote share    win
LDP      41.43%      26
CDP      37.72%      15
JRP       20.16%       5

I will have to get the PR vote share for these districts but I am sure once I do what I will find is that for the LDP vs CDP seats the JRP PR vote tilted LDP and for the LDP vs CDP vs JRP seats the DPP PR and even RS PR vote tilted JRP giving the LDP a lot of unexpected wins over CDP as well as some JRP some extra wins as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The current campaign was the most moderate in JCP’s history, and subsequently it was a massive flop.

I think there are two reasons for this major flop; the JCP is led by geriatrics and is subsequently an “old” party and the moderate platform alienated New Left participants who select the JCP as the lesser evil. With little new members coming in due to its leadership being disconnected from the youth, a lot of natural stagnation of its membership is taking place. There is also the alienation of previous New Left activists who see no reason for voting for a party increasingly moderating its stances across the board.

The JCP needs to sack it’s current upper brass and get more young and more female voices to represent the party. They need to signal to the other communist organizations that they are open for them to run together as an open list, and combine collective participation in both street activities and electoral alliances.

Firstly, this is all quite impossible. And secondly if it did happen, then the party would collapse completely. You do not understand what the JCP is and why its electorate votes for it. There is no mass base or serious appetite for far-left politics in Japan in a conventional sense. The JCP is essentially a cult party like Komeito: people vote for it because they are from red families, not because they are political radicals. This is why its vote is so extraordinarily stable and also why the party is toxic to the wider electorate despite its longstanding - we're talking decades here: during the later decades of the Cold War it was well to the 'right' of the JSP on foreign policy issues, even - political  moderation.

[jaichind]

In 沖縄(Okinawa), for the first time since 2012 the total LDP vote outstripped the anti-LDP bloc.

[jaichind]

All eyes will now focus on the 静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election this Sunday (山口(Yamaguchi) Upper House by-election is a foregone conclusion.)   It will be LDP vs CDP-DPP backed independent vs JCP.    It is sort of like the VA governor race later in early Nov.  If the LDP wins by less than 3% it will be a morale booster for the Opposition.  If CDP-DPP wins it will be a shock result and hit LDP hard right before the Lower House election.  If the LDP can win by more than 5%-6% it will show that the national environment is still solidly in favor of the LDP and gives them confidence heading in the Lower House elections next Sunday.

A premonition for the Nov 2nd VA gubernatorial election?

Both 静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election and VA Gov election upset took place.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[jaichind]

5 out of the 6 pro-Opposition MP form a separate parliamentary group.  The one that did not join is the ex-governor that won 新潟(Niigata) 5th.  It is possible he might just end up caucusing with CDP.

Separately DPP has left its parliamentary alliance with the CDP although I suspect when it comes to the Upper House elections the DPP will still have to see some sort of cooperation with CDP especially in single-member districts.

[jaichind]

Of the 6 pro-LDP independents elected, 2 already have been retroactively nominated by LDP.  Of the remaining 4

静岡(Shizuoka) 5th - 2017 HP incumbent turned LDP rebel wants to get into LDP officially.  His official LDP opponent won on the PR slate so I doubt the local LDP branch will back this move.  So for now he will have to be a pro-LDP independent.

岡山(Okayama) 3rd - LDP rebel that ran as a rebel and lost in 2017 ran again and won.  Again his official LDP incumbent candidate won on the PR slate so his desire to get into the LDP officially will most likely go nowhere and he will have to stay a pro-LDP independent.

熊本(Kumamoto) 2nd - The LDP rebel winner is a member of a local rival rebel LDP faction.  The official LDP candidate failed to get elected on the PR slate so chances are higher that he will be let into LDP.  The main problem is the local LDP factional battles have to be worked out before the local branch can recommend that he is let in.

鹿児島(Kagoshima) 2nd - ex-governor who originally won as governor as an anti-nuclear LDP rebel but went back to a pro-LDP position before being defeated by another LDP rebel.  It is not clear he even wants to join the LDP even as the official LDP candidate failed to be elected on the PR slate.

[jaichind]

Another fun district to talk about is 新潟(Niigata) 5th.  This race should be called LDP vs LDP vs LDP or the battle of governors.

This district was 田中眞紀子(Tanaka Makiko) old district.  She is the daughter of old LDP PM Tanaka and the leader of the powerful Tanaka faction which is the answer of the 竹下(Takesh**ta) faction.  She was a LDP MP but after a falling out with Koizumi Senior shifted over to the DPJ.

The LDP in 2005 and 2009 ran 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) to try to dislodge Tanaka to no avail.  In 2012 the LDP decided to run the retiring governor of 新潟(Niigata) 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi).  In anger 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) joined JRP and also ran in this district.  長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) won due to the anti-DPJ wave of 2012.    米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi)  ran in 2013 for the JRP in the Upper house but was not elected.  In 2014 DPJ JRP and PLP had a series of tactical alliances and JRP gave 新潟(Niigata) 5th to PLP to take on 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) in a losing effort in 2014.

In 2016 the non-Osaka branch of JRP merged into DP so 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) found himself as a member of DP.  He chooses to run in 2016 新潟(Niigata) governor race as a united opposition candidate against 森民夫(Mori Tamio) who ran as a pro-LDP candidate.   米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) won in a narrow race on the nuclear power plant issue. 

In 2018  米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) was forced to resign when it turned out he was a sugar daddy for a college girl.  Since 2018 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) has been laying low waiting to make a political comeback.  His chance came when he got de facto CDP support to take on 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) in 2021.  His chances rose when it also turned out his 2018 pro-LDP opponent 森民夫(Mori Tamio) is also running as a LDP rebel.

So the election is LDP vs LDP vs LDP in the sense that all 3 candidates have LDP backgrounds.
It is also the battle of governors as 2 of the 3 candidates are former governors and one of them ran unsuccessfully for governor.

Before the campaign, it was CW that 長島忠美(Nagashima Tadayoshi) had the upper hand.  The media polls seem to indicate that 米山隆一(Yoneyama Ryūichi) has the edge and might be running away with it by scoping up the Center-Left Opposition, JCP, and JRP vote while the LDP and LDP rebel is splitting the LDP-KP vote.

One way or another this race would be a fun one to track election night.

This ended up being

pro-CDP Ind.      45.0%
LDP                   34.4% (elected on PR slate)
LDP rebel           20.6%

Part of the pattern that people would vote against LDP if the alternative does not have CDP party label next to it

[jaichind]

Looking at the detailed seat by seat raw data I identified a bunch of fun 3-way battles

1) 東京(Tokyo) 12th - KP vs JCP vs JRP.  KP has the edge but JRP vote share is very high and could throw the race to JCP
2) 神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th - CDP vs LDP vs LDP rebel.  Rerun of 2017 where LDP split gives the seat to CDP.  LDP rebel has a DPJ-YP background and was for a while the leader of YP before joining LDP
3) 愛知(Aichi) 10th - LDP vs CDP vs JRP.  Incumbent LDP should win  but JRP candidate has DPJ-YP background and will make gains to make this race closer
4) 京都(Kyoto) 1st - LDP vs JCP vs JRP.  LDP should win but JRP surge could throw the race to JCP
5) 京都(Kyoto) 2nd - LDP vs DPP vs JCP.  Incumbent DPP (was the last leader of DP) should win but JCP surge eating into the CDP vote will make it closer
6) 京都(Kyoto) 4th - LDP vs pro-DPP Ind. vs JCP.  LDP should win but the pro-DPP independent is eating into JRP and CDP vote in a district where JCP is very strong and should win enough votes for LDP to win.
7) 大阪(Osaka) 2nd - LDP vs JRP vs CDP.  JRP surge means it is likely that it will upset the LDP incumbent here
8  ) 大阪(Osaka) 2nd - LDP vs JRP vs CDP.  CDP incumbent has the edge but JRP surge means CDP might need anti-JRP tactical voting by LDP voters to win
9) 兵庫(Hyōgo) 1st - LDP vs CDP vs JRP - JRP surge means CDP is likely to flip this seat
10) 兵庫(Hyōgo) 5th 6th 7th and 10th - LDP vs CDP vs JRP.  All were assumed to be safe seats for LDP but JRP surge is making them competitive with 5th 6th and 7th could see either CDP or JRP winning one of them.

東京(Tokyo) 12th (JCP underperformed, JRP overperformed)
KP               39.9%
JRP              31.7% (elected on PR slate)
JCP              28.4%

神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th
CDP              33.0%
LDP rebel       31.5%
LDP               23.5% (elected on PR slate)
JRP                 8.2%
pro-RS            3.8%

愛知(Aichi) 10th (had RS and JCP not run and backed CDP, CDP could have had a shot)
LDP              35.0%
JRP               27.0% (elected on PR slate)
CDP              23.0%
RS                 9.1%
JCP                5.9%

京都(Kyoto) 1st (JCP underperformed, JRP overperformed)
LDP              40.4%
JCP               30.5% (elected on PR slate)
JRP               29.1% (elected on PR slate)

京都(Kyoto) 2nd (DPP outperformed)
DPP              48.9%
LDP               29.2%
JCP               17.0%
RS                 4.9%

京都(Kyoto) 4th (pro-DPP ind outperformed and won an upset victory)
pro-DPP Ind.  44.2%
LDP               37.1% (elected on PR slate)
JCP                18.7%

大阪(Osaka) 2nd (JRP surge)
JRP               48.5%
LDP              32.5%
CDP              19.0%

大阪(Osaka) 10nd (JRP surge)
JRP               40.3%
CDP              33.4%
LDP               26.3%

兵庫(Hyōgo) 1st
CDP              36.9%
LDP              30.1% (elected on PR slate)
JRP               25.0% (elected on PR slate)
LDP rebel        4.7%
Anti-Vax Left   3.4%

兵庫(Hyōgo) 5th
LDP              42.5%
JRP               29.5% (elected on PR slate)
CDP              28.0%

兵庫(Hyōgo) 6th (JRP upset in a very close 3 way race)
JRP               35.2%
LDP              34.4% (elected on PR slate)
CDP              30.4% (elected on PR slate)

兵庫(Hyōgo) 7th (close call for LDP)
LDP              37.5%
JRP               36.9% (elected on PR slate)
CDP              25.6%
 
兵庫(Hyōgo) 10th
LDP              45.0%
JRP               32.9% (elected on PR slate)
CDP              22.1%


Other 3 way battles are

大阪(Osaka) 11nd (CDP incumbent driven third place)
JRP               44.6%
LDP               29.8%
CDP              25.5%

東京(Tokyo) 1st
LDP              39.0%
CDP              35.4% (elected on PR slate)
JRP               23.7% (elected on PR slate)

愛知(Aichi) 5th
LDP              41.2%
CDP              36.6%
JRP               22.2% (elected on PR slate)

愛知(Aichi) 10th (could have been competitive for CDP if RS and JCP not run)
LDP             35.0%
JRP              27.0% (elected on PR slate)
CDP             23.0%
RS                 9.1%
JCP                5.9%

宮崎(Miyazaki) 1st (LDP rebel throws race to CDP)
CDP              32.6%
LDP               32.0% (elected on PR slate)
CDP               23.4%
JCP                12.0%

新潟(Niigata) 5th (was mentioned before, LDP rebel most likely cost LDP win)
pro-CDP Ind.  45.0%
LDP               34.4% (elected on PR slate)
LDP rebel       20.6%

沖縄(Okinawa) 1st
JCP                42.2%
LDP                37.4% (elected on PR slate)
ex-JRP            20.4%

東京(Tokyo) 15th
pro-LDP Ind     32.0% (retroactively nominated by LDP)
CDP                24.7%
JRP                 18.8%
pro-LDP ind     11.2%
LDP rebel          7.3%
JFP                   4.0% (extreme anti-Korean Right)

埼玉(Saitama) 15th
LDP                 45.9%
CDP                32.4%
JRP                 21.8% (elected on PR slate)

[Logical]

Final turnout chart

           2014     2017     2021
Early   12.65    20.15    19.49   
10 00   5.68      7.15      6.32
11 00  11.08    12.24    11.32
14 00  22.66    21.83    21.49
16 00  29.11    26.30    26.78
18 00  34.98    29.99    31.64
19 30  37.72    31.82    34.32

Final    52.65    53.68    55.93

Highest turnout: Yamagata 64.34%
Lowest turnout: Yamaguchi 49.67% (Abe's home prefecture, had an upper house byelection the week before)

[jaichind]

To get a sense of where the battleground of the next election will be.  I divided up the seats into those decided by 10% or less and 10% or more.

Victory margin by 10% or less
LDP             60 (including one retroactive nominated winner)
pro-LDP Ind.  2
KP                3
JRP               4
DPP               1
pro-DPP Ind   3
CDP             41
SDP              1
JCP               1
Total          116

Victory margin of 10% or more
LDP           129 (including one retroactive nominated winner)
pro-LDP In d  2
KP                6
JRP             12
DPP              5
pro-DPP Ind  1
CDP            16
pro-CDP Ind  2
Total          173

LDP-KP has almost 80% of all the seats.  While LDP has 60 seats with a victory margin of 10% which could be targeted next election CDP itself has 41 such targets.  

Also, bad news for the Opposition is that out of the 63 LDP seats that were won with less than a 10% margin, 22 of them will not see an Opposition (non-JRP) PR slate incumbent in that seat.  This is mostly due to CDP underperformance on the PR slate.  So only in 41 of these 63 seats will the Opposition have an incumbent MP in the seat to nullify the LDP-KP incumbency advantage next election.  On the other hand out of the 47 seats won by the Opposition by less than a 10% margin only in 7 seats will the LDP not have a PR elected incumbent.  This is mostly because of LDP overperformance of the LDP on the PR slate.

The good news for CDP is that the SD of swings this election was quite large and if kept up next election could produce more targets for CDP.

[Logical]

Preliminary numbers for Japan's apportionment based on the census. The Kanto area will gain seats while rural prefectures continue to bleed seats.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA188FJ0Y1A610C2000000/

On the PR block Tokyo and South Kanto will gain 2 and 1 seats respectively while Tohoku, Hokuriku-Shinetsu and Chugoku will lose 1 seat each. I wonder if the number of seats will be increased again to placate rural members.

The next election will take place after massive boundary changes in most prefectures. It's difficult to predict which seats will be competitive until the proposals are released, but it's safe to say that the prefectures losing seats are more LDP friendly than the urban prefectures gaining seats.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are proportional results by single-member constituency available anywhere? I would (obviously!) be very interested in doing things with that data if it existed in a useable form for me.

[jaichind]

Are proportional results by single-member constituency available anywhere? I would (obviously!) be very interested in doing things with that data if it existed in a useable form for me.

It is not. You have to go to the election commission website for rach prefecture to get a map of township to district and then construct the result.  Half of the prefectures have not even loaded the data by township yet.   I will share once i have calculated this.   Most likely it will be a few weeks.

[jaichind]

The next election will take place after massive boundary changes in most prefectures. It's difficult to predict which seats will be competitive until the proposals are released, but it's safe to say that the prefectures losing seats are more LDP friendly than the urban prefectures gaining seats.

Good point. Although given the deep bench the LDP has at the prefecture level I suspect they will have more local talent to throw into running in those urban seats while the Opposition will struggle to come up with more quality candidates.  Agreed that this will lose LDP seats on rural prefectures.  It is only that they will gain more it back anyway even in urban areas.   Now, it is likely the next election will be worse for LDP than 2021 so perhaps this gain will not be realized.

[jaichind]

https://withnews.jp/article/f0211105004qq000000000000000W0di10101qq000023864A

Analysis of the PR vote

One interesting stat. What % of a party's PR vote is 60+

JCP 　58%
CDP　56%
KP  　49%
LDP　47%
JRP　40%
DPP　30%
RS 　21% 

DPP is the surprise here.  In this election DPP is really looking like a rural version of JRP.

[jaichind]

https://www.kobe-np.co.jp/news/jiken/202111/0014818437.shtml

Campaign for JRP PR slate winner for 兵庫(Hyōgo) 4th under investigation for vote-buying.  The fact that the investigation is being made public makes it very likely his campaign is guilty.  He might end up having to resign.

[jaichind]

Are proportional results by single-member constituency available anywhere? I would (obviously!) be very interested in doing things with that data if it existed in a useable form for me.

I did the first pass through about 2/3 of the prefecture election commission websites.  About have posted their data per township as well as confirm the township to district mapping.  As a result I have already mapped the PR vote in 90 out of the 289 districts.  I suspect it will be a couple of more weeks before I can be done. I recall in 2017 there were a couple of prefectures that did geo block on access to the election results data (forigners should not get to see or care about such data?). Anyway I can just use a VPN to get access to them.

[DC Al Fine]

Could someone please explain the major demographic features of the map Al posted, for us Japan n00bs?

[jaichind]

Could someone please explain the major demographic features of the map Al posted, for us Japan n00bs?

Divide Japan into rural West, Greater Osaka, Greater Tokyo, and rural East.  LDP-KP is very strong in rural West and is competitive with opposition in rural East.  JRP as a strong regional force is very strong in Greater Osaka with LDP its main rival.  JRP has urban appeal and is trying to break into Greater Tokyo which has a large number of marginal seats between LDP and Opposition.  Traditionally Greater Tokyo leaned LDP because Opposition and JCP split their vote.

This time around Opposition and JCP formed an alliance to try to sweep Greater Tokyo.  This seems to create a reaction in the anti-JCP vote which sifted anti-JCP and anti-LDP votes to JRP which turned many urban seats into 3-way battles and helped LDP in the process despite the Oppsotion-JCP alliance.  This shift also led to massive JRP landslides in Osaka.  In rural East where JRP is weak the JRP vote tactically voted LDP to help beat back the Opposition-JCP alliance.  In there rural West where JCP is weak, the anti-JCP consolidation is weaker and local frustration with the LDP actually helped the Opposition to gain a few seats.