Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Person Man]

Gallup (October 12th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 54% (-3)

The media blaming a rape scandal on the Democrats?

[Person Man]

Washington Post/ University of Maryland (National Poll)

Approve: 37
Disapprove: 63

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/10/28/National-Politics/Polling/release_497.xml?tid=a_inl

Strongly: 17/48

Their previous poll was 39/57, strongly 26/48.

That's a sharp dropoff in strong approval.

At this point, with him with such high disapprovals, I have no idea if anyone has ever salvaged a presidency after this. This is beyond Harry Truman.

[Person Man]

It was enough to start one in early 03 for Bush.

[Person Man]

It was enough to start one in early 03 for Bush.

His victory was hardly assured. It came down to a close margin in a single swing state. Compare that to his 60-70% approvals for the few months immediately after Iraq.

Still, it was enough. Without it, he would've lost. Though if 9/11 never happened, the Dems would have consolidated congress and he could have won by campaigning against them.

[Person Man]

33/62!

lmao!

This is the point of no return...

[Person Man]

Did even Truman ever get this low?

His lowest was 34%.

[Person Man]

Gallup (November 2nd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

The indictments actually HELPED him???

Yes, my support for Trump got 10 feet higher.

I think a lot of soft support for Trump is just based around malevolent  nihilism. This last week confirms it.

Rasmussen polled VA GOV race and found Trump with a 45/54 JA.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2017/virginia/election_2017_virginia_governor

That seems somewhat high for VA.  Then again, Rasumussen has consistently had relatively good national approval ratings for Trump, compared to other pollsters.  They currently have him at 43/55, with very little movement over the last couple of months.

So it confirms the state of the race; Northam is winning but might lose if there the brand is really that damaged.

[Person Man]

Gallup (November 2nd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

The indictments actually HELPED him???

Maybe it was the terrorist attack.

Do you think that is what the terrorists want?

[Person Man]

WaPo/ABC (vs. Sept.)

Approve: 37% (-2) (strong: 25%)
Disapprove: 59% (+2) (strong: 50%)

He was at 36% approval in July, but this is a new high for disapproval. Needless to say, this is the worst result of any president in his first year in history.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/year-surprise-election-65-percent-trumps-achieved-poll/story?id=50907926

Because we are ruled by someone who needs his add kicked. If he wins again, a lot of people need an add whooping.

[Person Man]

Gallup (November 11th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

Why is he up? You think its the strong economy?

[Person Man]

Gallup (November 11th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

Why is he up? You think its the strong economy?

Don't read too much into the fluctuations of a daily tracker.  Gallup has stayed within a narrow range for a few months now, with approvals in the 35-40 range and disapprovals in 55-60, barring a few outliers.  If he breaks out of those ranges (in either direction) and stays there for more than a few days, then we can start talking about movement.

What would be the reason for him to break out of that range?

[Person Man]

Gallup, 11/30

Approve 34 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Big movement over the last 2 days, and the worst Trump's been in Gallup for a while.  Need a few more days to see if it's a real trend or just typical daily tracker fluctuation.

Which is weird because Republicans has been improving across the board by about 2 or 3 points in my polls according to RCP but they are borderline fake news.
I think all the nazi stuff, the ICBM stuff, and now Mueller letting Flynn get away with treason with a slap on the wrist to spill the beans will take it's toll. Unless either people don't care anymore about anything, they distracted by the diddling, or that the tax bill is all the sudden "Wow! Free money!"

[Person Man]

Confessing that one has "lust in my heart" is far preferable to bragging that one grabs women by their (crotches). Donald Trump is about as vile a man as Jimmy Carter was decent.

I am afraid we will sacrifice too much to have our next Carter.

[Person Man]

No president has ever been this low and was reelected.

[Person Man]

No president has ever been this low and was reelected.

His only shot is if he can make his opponent as unpopular as him (or if he again draws one that is already unpopular, like Clinton). I'd say it is seriously debatable whether or not he can even do that. Hillary became very unpopular due to her own constant self-created scandals. All Trump did was attempt to amplify what was already there (email scandal, ensuing fbi investigation, clinton foundation, deplorables, etc).

If his numbers stay in the 30s or even low 40s, I'd say he is cooked.

The thing is that not only has a president with his low approvals has ever been elected, but no president has ever improved enough to be elected with their approvals so low at all. I imagine that he won't run if he gets a rung below this. The pols that have gotten lower were only lower because of polarization or in recent times because they couldn't run again, anyways.

Here are the scenarios I see-

Trump's poor choices start to have consequences, but voters choose not to hold all the little Trumps accountable in 2018.
- There is no D overreach. Trump is entirely responsible for what has happened. If Democrats are electable, they will get elected in 2020.

Things stay about the same and there is a only minor backlash where 10 or 20 R seats fall and they even gain 3 or 4 in the senate. This probably means that Republican control is the new normal.

The Democrats do really well and things stay good. This probably means that they will overreach and voter will give Trump the benefit of the doubt.  If also the economy goes to sh**t, I don't think having Democrats around to blame will save Trump.

So yeah. There has to be proof for Democrats to win in 2020 that Trump's asshole behavior is an actual problem.

[Person Man]

Gallup, 12/1

Approve 33 (-1)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

This equals Trump's worst-ever numbers in Gallup on both ends. 

After being mostly stable for a few weeks, movement over the last few days has been very bad for Trump:

11/28: 38/55 (-17)
11/29: 36/57 (-21)
11/30: 34/60 (-26)
12/1: 33/62 (-29)

It's still a little too early to say whether this is a real trend.  Gallup uses a 3-day rolling average, so one or two very good or bad samples can have effects that last a few days.  If it still looks like this next week, then I'd be willing to call it a trend.

Throughout November, the President's approval ratings have typically been in the high 30s and disapproval in the middle 50s. The change is outside the margin of error. It could be an outlier or it could represent a transitory event.

This said, the guilty plea by Michael Flynn will not go away. The tax bill that the President wants as does America's new aristocratic elite but the rest of America despises will not go away. I saw a really-bad favorability poll for the President in Colorado last week: 64% unfavorability. Colorado may be drifting D about as rapidly as West Virginia drifted R in the early part of this century, but hardly any state swings that fast. Disapproval for the President in California is at 68%, as if the difference between  Clinton getting 61% of the vote in California and Trump being rejected by 68% of voters has any legal effect. It's still 55 electoral votes whether a Democrat gets a tiny plurality or 70% of the vote.

If these horrid approval ratings stick, I think I have an explanation.

If there are any statewide polls this weekend, then such might corroborate the tracking poll.     

It is very worrying if only a handful of states are responsible for most of the movement. Not only does that mean that Trump is more popular with the middle, it also means that some of these other states might start to see themselves as not really part of what is going on. That would probably take decades for it to become an issue if ever... or not.

[Person Man]

Gallup, 12/3

Approve 35 (+1)
Disapprove 60 (-1)

What can we say, Republican voters obviously love it when a pervert endorses a pedophile. Riles up the base.

We don't know if this is trend yet.

If he does improve, it definitely means a lot of people are just egging Him on for entertainment.

[Person Man]

You know, I kind of wish Krazen would take LimoLiberal under his wing and teach him the ins and outs of successful trolling for the long term. Whether you love Krazen or hate him, he's endured and proven himself successful at what he does. LimoLiberal's just hapless. He's too eager for attention and to be liked to really pull this off. But he keeps trying.

Bless his heart!

[Person Man]

Don't worry limo. This thread is titled "Trump approval ratings" but it's actually "Daily dose of libs trying to feel better in Trump's America".

Doug Jones+1.5

44 point swing in Tennessee yesterday

RIP the GOP in 2018. They need to moderate and become more reasonable so they get educated swing voters like me back into their fold.

Bragging about Doug Jones winning is like bragging about catching fish with sticks of dynamite.

The story of 2018.

[Person Man]

Don't worry limo. This thread is titled "Trump approval ratings" but it's actually "Daily dose of libs trying to feel better in Trump's America".

Doug Jones+1.5

44 point swing in Tennessee yesterday

RIP the GOP in 2018. They need to moderate and become more reasonable so they get educated swing voters like me back into their fold.

Seriously.

I think Republicans are underestimating how completely ****ed they are in 2018.

I mean just look at these numbers.

Live interview generic ballot polls in December
CNN D+18
Quinnipiac D+15
Monmouth D+15
Marist D+13
POS (R) D+12
NBC/WSJ D+11

Hillary won the popular vote by 2%. That was in line with her 4% lead in the polling average. National polling was pretty accurate in 2016.

Edit: A veteran of a polling forum should know that.

And the polls were too favorable to Republicans in Virginia and Alabama.

[Person Man]

How the hell was Trump almost able to win NH?!

Because Clinton was almost as unpopular as Trump, and in an election between two very unpopular candidates, things even out and the fundamentals become more predictive. The fundamentals predicted a close race.

This is a big part of why I think people acting like Trump is favored in 2020 completely misinterpreted a big part of the 2016 election. Most people don't actually like Trump, and nationally and in numerous states he actually did worse than Romney. Unless he draws an equally unpopular candidate in 2020, he'll probably get blown out.

Basically, the only two reasons why Trump won in 2016 was because 1) Democratic fatigue (people may have just thought it was time to elect a Republican), and 2) Clinton insufficiently contrasted with Trump because of the constant allegations of corruption made against her.

Trump could still win in 2020 if the fundamentals make people who don't really like him give him the benefit of the doubt. That is pretty much how Obama and Bush got reelected. They both got to 51% by convincing swing voters it was too soon to judge them because they were in the middle of implementing their signature policies. With W, it was Iraq and with Obama, it was Obamacare. However, Trump hasn't really done anything yet that would need him to be reelected. The alternative might be for him to win like Clinton did in 1996 by claiming that the status quo is working but that only worked because Clinton lost Congress and the economy was going strong.

[Person Man]

Hell, Trump could lose by more than Romney in 2020 and he doesn't even have to lose any of the people who voted for him in 2016. All the Democrat has to do is consolidate everyone who voted for Clinton, and those who voted 3rd party. That's how fragile his reelection prospects are. However I seriously doubt he is on track to maintain his current base of support. His "outsider" credentials are shot, and now he has a history to run on - an unsavory history full of policy changes that directly contradict his populist hero image. Not to mention allegations of corruption and foreign collusion.

At best, I think he could maintain the Obama 2012 trajectory, where Obama won but still lost a bit shy of half his 2008 winning margin, which in Trump's case (as a popular vote loser), you would subtract about 1 - 1.5%, bringing him down to 44.5 - 45%. And this assumes he claws his way back to 45%+ approvals, which is hardly a given considering his favorables in 2016 were constantly in the 35 - 37% range.

I dunno. I just don't see it. If Trump's popularity starts surging to near or >50% sometime before October 2020, or the Democrat is again really unpopular, I'll reconsider. Otherwise I think he's got a very short shelf life.

His best case scenario is where he pulls an Obama and loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, but holds on in Wisconsin by a few thousand votes and maybe Florida by 1% again.

What is probably going to happen is that he either loses by like 5 or 6 points and Democrats take all the above plus Arizona and North Carolina...Or gets BTFO and loses Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio....and has trouble in some elastic red states like Montana

[Person Man]

That's how the electoral college works, because we're a Republic. The people in Wyoming need as much say as Californians, otherwise it really is "tyranny of the majority".

Actually the people of Wyoming have 3.6 times more say than the people of California, so this has become the tyranny of the minority.

Not when California has 67 people for every one in Wyoming.

Um, do you understand what I said or is it too much for you to process?

You are talking to someone who believes that people don't matter, only states and corporations matter.

[Person Man]

That's how the electoral college works, because we're a Republic. The people in Wyoming need as much say as Californians, otherwise it really is "tyranny of the majority".

Actually the people of Wyoming have 3.6 times more say than the people of California, so this has become the tyranny of the minority.

Not when California has 67 people for every one in Wyoming.

Um, do you understand what I said or is it too much for you to process?

You are talking to someone who believes that people don't matter, only states and corporations matter.

No I believe individuals matter. The smallest minority.

But apparently some more than others. I don't understand why there is this fixation on procedural rights as opposed to substantive ones. Again, unless by "freedom", it is normally just meant the right own property, not to consent to be governed or to be governed only in a way that doesn't prevent you from consenting to be governed.

[Person Man]

Gallup 12/30

Approve: 40% (+2)
Disapprove: 55% (-1)

Trump's highest approval in Gallup since 9/23.

Maybe people are just becoming richer? Maybe more people flying first class.