Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 911122 times)
NOVA Green
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« Reply #5950 on: March 05, 2022, 05:53:13 PM »

Don't believe it's been posted yet but White House now weighing ban on Russian Oil Imports per Washington Post.

Linked article is much longer and the story appears to mainly focus on conversations from Friday.

"White House considers ban on Russian oil imports amid growing bipartisan call from Congress to act

By Steven Mufson5:30 p.m.

The White House said Friday that it is weighing a ban on imports of Russian oil, amid growing calls in Congress to act.

While imported Russian crude makes up a small fraction of the U.S. oil market, the move could have broader implications for energy prices if countries in Europe and elsewhere adopt similar sanctions. Biden administration officials have been debating how to respond to bipartisan calls for retaliation against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine without driving up the already soaring cost of oil, which will in turn boost gasoline prices.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday that the administration is “considering a range of options” but does not want to disrupt the global energy supply or increase gas prices.

“We don’t import a lot of Russian oil, but we are looking at options that we can take right now if we were to cut the U.S. consumption of Russian energy,” Psaki said. “But what’s really most important is that we maintain a steady supply of global energy.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-XPGBRAAZDJB2LK74R33LEKHMGQ

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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5951 on: March 05, 2022, 06:08:42 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5952 on: March 05, 2022, 06:13:56 PM »



Reminds me why I used to have an FT newspaper delivered to my door as part of a subscription, and even would make long treks on bus, bicycle, or walking to (4) different stores in the City which were the only ones who sold the FT when I couldn't read a copy working in the Mailroom some decade(s) back.

Probably time to check out their online subscription and maybe grab a copy of The Economist as well.   Wink
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5953 on: March 05, 2022, 06:18:03 PM »

Meanwhile Zelensky appears to be supporting street protests and resistance within Russian Occupied portions of Ukraine per CNN 12 minutes ago:

"President Volodymyr Zelensky urges Ukrainians to keep up resistance

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday urged Ukrainians to keep up their resistance, saying, “Ukrainians! In all of our cities, where the enemy invaded, go on the offensive. Go out on the streets. We need to fight every time we have an opportunity.”

In a video address posted on his official Facebook page, Zelensky said Ukrainians would not give their country “away to an enemy" and commended the Ukrainian people's faith.

“When you don't have a firearm but they respond with gunshots and you don't run … This is the reason why occupation is temporary. Our people -- Ukrainians -- don't back down,” Zelensky said.

Zelensky applauded the Ukrainian people's resistance and protests.

"They scream at occupants to go home, like the Russian battleship, pushing the occupants out of our territory," he continued. "Every meter of our Ukrainian land reclaimed by protest is a step forward, a step toward victory.”

"

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-05-22/index.html


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Estrella
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« Reply #5954 on: March 05, 2022, 06:22:24 PM »

Earlier in this thread I compared Russia's economic situation to early 2010s Greece. I think now we're going to see what a Grexit could have looked like.
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« Reply #5955 on: March 05, 2022, 06:27:08 PM »

Interesting:

Flying Tigers in Ukraine: Erik Prince’s Rejected ‘Lend-Lease’ Air Force

Quote
When war in Europe was likely, though not yet inevitable, late last year, an idea began bubbling in the blob, that ill-defined but very real foreign policy space in Washington that is occupied by the likes of wonks, war hawks, and shadowy military contractors.

What if President Biden sent soon-to-be-decommissioned attack aircraft and fighter jets to Ukraine as a deterrent? And, as Russia massed troops on the border, what if those war planes were piloted by retired American airmen who showed up in Ukraine to defend the skies and who were, at least officially, unaffiliated with the United States government?

It sounds like a Tom Clancy novel, but there was a real business proposal – a mashup of Lend-Lease, the World War II program providing U.S. military materiel to Great Britain as it stood alone against Hitler, and the American Volunteer Group, an unaffiliated air corps later nicknamed the Flying Tigers who fought the Axis before the United States entered the war.

The proposal reviewed by RealClearPolitics was drafted late last year, circulated among a close-knit group, and allegedly forwarded to the White House through back channels rather than to the Pentagon for fear it would get bogged down in red tape. The initial idea belonged to Erik Prince, a controversial former Navy SEAL-turned CIA contractor. And it never got off the ground.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5956 on: March 05, 2022, 06:29:59 PM »



Vogel writes that there are discussions to use Venezuelan oil as a substitute for Russian oil (presumably, after lifting sanctions on one and imposing them on the other). These are different kinds of crude oil (Venezuela's is heavier and dirtier), so I'm not sure this would actually work.

This is a good thing, regardless of the fact that it won't have any immediate short term impacts on oil pricing.

The US has long had a pretty poor history dealing with Latin America going back somewhere around 120 years, and things got a lot worse sometime in the 1950s and 1960s.

Nothing wrong with trying to figure out a longer term deal which will isolate Russia from Venezuelan crude oil, negotiate dialogue between the Venezuelan Government and Opposition, where return to normalization of the political sphere (Elections, Freedom of Press, Judiciary, Labor Unions, etc...) while simultaneously providing high quality US Oil savvy to help modernize the decrepit state of their Oil Industry, with state run oil profits continuing to fund food, housing, and social programs for the urban poor who suffered so much at the hands of the previous governments and corruption as part of the "Petrol Curse".

Could well be a win-win scenario all around ??
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« Reply #5957 on: March 05, 2022, 06:31:41 PM »



Vogel writes that there are discussions to use Venezuelan oil as a substitute for Russian oil (presumably, after lifting sanctions on one and imposing them on the other). These are different kinds of crude oil (Venezuela's is heavier and dirtier), so I'm not sure this would actually work.

This is a good thing, regardless of the fact that it won't have any immediate short term impacts on oil pricing.

The US has long had a pretty poor history dealing with Latin America going back somewhere around 120 years, and things got a lot worse sometime in the 1950s and 1960s.

Nothing wrong with trying to figure out a longer term deal which will isolate Russia from Venezuelan crude oil, negotiate dialogue between the Venezuelan Government and Opposition, where return to normalization of the political sphere (Elections, Freedom of Press, Judiciary, Labor Unions, etc...) while simultaneously providing high quality US Oil savvy to help modernize the decrepit state of their Oil Industry, with state run oil profits continuing to fund food, housing, and social programs for the urban poor who suffered so much at the hands of the previous governments and corruption as part of the "Petrol Curse".

Could well be a win-win scenario all around ??
Let's hope for the best here.
It's good geopolitical thinking to give Russia less room to have outright allies in Latin America, anyway...
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« Reply #5958 on: March 05, 2022, 06:38:48 PM »

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« Reply #5959 on: March 05, 2022, 06:48:34 PM »

By the end of all this, Russia will be (permanently) so cut down to size as a Great Power that we may no longer have to hold Europe's hand next time -they will be more than capable of dealing with Russia on their own if it misbehaves again.  

Many countries have depended on Russia for their military hardware and training, for decades.

I wonder what their leadership are thinking right now.


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« Reply #5960 on: March 05, 2022, 06:57:30 PM »



Something's wrong, all right...
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« Reply #5961 on: March 05, 2022, 06:59:46 PM »

I didn't mean in terms of territory.  I mean that I want Russia so weak it can't undertake any foreign adventures, but strong enough that it can still guard its borders effectively and stay territorially intact. 

That might happen, but it's delusional for anyone outside Russia to think they can influence what occurs on the ground. It will be a miracle if a post-Putin Russia is merely as chaotic as the 90s, and any hope of rebuilding Russia on liberal democratic likes like post-WW2 Germany or Japan will take vast amounts of money and a lot of time.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5962 on: March 05, 2022, 07:09:21 PM »


Russia had about 100 of these Shilka AA guns in service in 2011, so it’s presumably cracking into the Soviet stores. The ones here are probably un-retired Soviet vehicles (last produced in 1980). The Shilka may still be viable for fighting super low-flying aircraft (although it’s even worse than even MANPADS on the whole), but in recent Middle Eastern conflicts, it’s been repurposed as an urban warfare machine gun on tracks.

Twitter consensus is that rolling out this outdated Soviet stock is a sign of weakness because these things are going to be easy to destroy. However, the ATGMs are smoking much more advanced armoured vehicles anyway, and that these vehicles are still operable after however many years in storage is a sign that Russia will be able to draw upon the vast reserves generated by Soviet overproduction for a clientele that no longer existed after the collapse of the Warsaw Pact (and then, the Union itself).

Russia has thousands of armoured vehicles in storage that aren’t used in first-rate armies but see plenty of usage in conflicts in Syria, Yemen, etc. - and in the Ukrainian army. If their army keeps advancing at the rate it has since the invasion, it may be able to brute force its way through Javelin/NLAW strikes through sheer number of tanks.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #5963 on: March 05, 2022, 07:13:52 PM »

It’s all fun and games until the the mud starts speaking Ukrainian
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5964 on: March 05, 2022, 07:14:14 PM »


Something of note that I read about earlier (I wish I still had the link on me right now): one of the more unexpected problems for the Russians has been, of all things, tires. Many, if not most of their vehicles were stored poorly, so their tires dried-out & cracked, meaning that they're now not holding up to such heavy usage, & not only is this a simple problem to diagnose, but it's a hard-as-hell one to resolve, but that's what happens when you perpetually underfund garrison units in favor of blowing all of your money on new high-end equipment that you won't even be able to afford to field in a real fight.

Basically, while Putin may have thought that he thought of everything, he forgot that Pep Boys does everything for less.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #5965 on: March 05, 2022, 07:14:36 PM »

So, although it's not a convoy story, it definitely ties into the Russian attempt to encircle Kiev story.

Another fellow poster some dayz back posted photos of captured Russian battle plans for their assault on Kiev.

Here is an update just posted ~ 20 Minutes back on the Washington Post from BILA TSERKVA, Ukraine some 50 km South of the Capitol.

(Long article tons of pics, etc... so gotta keep it short.)   Sad

"Rocket blast rips through homes south of Kyiv as Russia tries to encircle capital

By Loveday Morris 7:00 p.m.

BILA TSERKVA, UKRAINE — In the secret location that has become a makeshift camp for the local administration of this city 50 miles south of Kyiv, officials and commanders met Saturday morning to discuss security and supply lines to the capital and the east.

As they debated whether they were prepared for a Russian advance, an explosion boomed in the distance, sending everyone rushing to an underground bunker.

Karina Maniukina, 16, had been making pancakes in her kitchen when the blast struck on the street outside. “There was just an orange light,” she said, dried blood on the side of her face where she had been hit by the spray of glass. “I thought I was going to die.”

This city of about 200,000 people would be a strategic prize in any Russian effort to choke off Kyiv, but for the moment it remains at the mouth of one of the few relatively safe passages in and out of the capital. Streams of people fleeing Kyiv clog checkpoints here as they make their long drive toward safety
."

So here are a few snippets from the longer article:

"Bila Tserkva is also a hub for humanitarian aid and military deliveries into the capital and further east. Much of the energy of the military volunteers and city officials here is focused on getting the right materials to the places they are needed. The stalling of the 40-mile Russian convoy of tanks of military vehicles in their effort to surround Kyiv has allowed this essential corridor to fortify and remain open at least for the moment.

“We’ve had some time to prepare,” said Khokhol, 36, who served with the Ukrainian military in the east in 2014 and 2015 after Russia annexed Crimea. But they still expect Russian forces attempt to close off this relatively safe passage. “They wouldn’t bomb it unless it was a strategic point,” he said.

...

The supplies go not only to the military, but also to internally displaced people, or anyone who needs it. Truck drivers who are unwilling to go onward unload their cargo here. “Then we find drivers with balls, and they go onward,” he said
."




https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-RDDNNUONS5HHTANV4K2KRQZZK4
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Badger
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« Reply #5966 on: March 05, 2022, 07:14:51 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2022, 07:24:41 PM by Badger »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of theor oil. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide embargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously.

China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
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« Reply #5967 on: March 05, 2022, 07:21:55 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5968 on: March 05, 2022, 07:24:36 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

Russia is probably too deep into OPEC+ to get OPEC on side. The best that can probably be done is driving down the price of Russian energy by reducing the number of countries prepared to buy it (in the short term, at least).

In the long term, NC Yankee has it right. The best way to stop OPEC shenanigans is to stop relying on oil. Driving up the price of domestic oil a bit (a byproduct of banning Russian oil) should make nuclear and renewables (and technology to improve them) more viable.
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Badger
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« Reply #5969 on: March 05, 2022, 07:26:22 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.
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« Reply #5970 on: March 05, 2022, 07:32:54 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.
These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.
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« Reply #5971 on: March 05, 2022, 07:38:30 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.
These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.

 You are missing the point. No one is talking about a worldwide embargo on Russian oil and gas. That would be great to come up with no 1 is expecting that period we're talking about Is an American embargo on Russian oil and gas. You see, Russia has a tremendous amount of financial investment in their oil and gas exportation. So if it is reduced, and there are not going to be other people buying as much, then Russia makes less money. There won't be magically other people to buy oil at the same price should we induce such an embargo.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #5972 on: March 05, 2022, 07:44:17 PM »

Leaked footage of new carbon nanotube technology on Russian vehicles. 100% Javelin proof!



Bruh
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« Reply #5973 on: March 05, 2022, 07:44:37 PM »

I lean towards No on this (while being persuadable to support Yes). The only way this will work is if Russia literally cannot find a place to sell its oil. And I doubt that is possible.
The intentions of such moves are noble, but these are likely to marginally increase American oil and gas prices without costing the Russians enough to justify the reduction in supply diversification. Gas is already, what, 4 dollars a galloon? And when you get past the feel-good statements on part of corporate America on this issue, this WILL likely result in higher prices for the common man in this country at the gas pump.
Just because something is a sanction doesn't mean it's worthy to do. Sometimes doing nothing is better than doing something. Let's not fetishize action at the expense of effective policy.

 Of course they will find some place to sell some of the Royal. No one's believing that there will be a 100% worldwide it blockade or a bargo on Russian oil and gas. The point is obvious supply and demand. The demand for Russian gas and oil decreases dramatically, that f**** Putin  Tremendously. China is right now for example buying all the gas and oil it needs from Russia. It's suddenly not going to buy more gas and oil that it doesn't need, and neither are most other countries, to take up the slack.
There's a LOT of potential and contemporary oil and gas consumers in the Third World.
I think for this to really work, we need the support of the Arab World. Otherwise, Putin can sell oil to Arab governments and then they can de facto circumvent the sanctions.

 And those 3rd world consumers are already purchasing gas and oil at the levels they need. Yes, theoretically some countries could buy up access Russia Russian gas at a cut throat low price, but who is really ready to do that? Mark Eritrea? North Korea?? And the rock bottom price Russia would have to sell it at is is going to further seriously harm Russia's bankroll.
These (oil-importing) third world countries would be signing up for de facto economic warfare against themselves if they were going to go along with sanctions on Russian oil, and what's more, some of them have long bought Russian. Russian oil being in the mix impacts supply and demand. Oil imports getting more expensive would be taxing to these countries.

The long-term costs of a sanction of Russian oil and gas would likely be met in significant part by Western consumers. Yes the Russians would pay a significant cost, and it's not necessarily insane economically for America, but sanctions of this sort are likely not territory that is economical in the long-run.

We actually help our ability to help Ukraine if we only do what is economical anyway.

 You are missing the point. No one is talking about a worldwide embargo on Russian oil and gas. That would be great to come up with no 1 is expecting that period we're talking about Is an American embargo on Russian oil and gas. You see, Russia has a tremendous amount of financial investment in their oil and gas exportation. So if it is reduced, and there are not going to be other people buying as much, then Russia makes less money. There won't be magically other people to buy oil at the same price should we induce such an embargo.
For this sort of thing, I'm inclined to go big or go home. It's a largely meaningless gesture that on net taxes Americans marginally, IF this is a US-only thing. The zeitgeist is already making it sort of done anyway, as corporate America has decided to virtue-signal once again and they benefit from higher prices from the exclusion of Russian oil and gas from the market. The major markets for Russia aren't in America anyway, they are elsewhere. (Like India, I would assume)
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #5974 on: March 05, 2022, 07:50:19 PM »

Shostka has fallen to the Russians. Otherwise it’s been a quiet day, oddly quiet.
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