2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

While we shouldn’t assume anything from EV I feel like there is a failure to appreciate the risk in the Trump campaign’s banking industry ED turnout in the year of a pandemic

[Hindsight was 2020]

So essentially OSR seems to be arguing a state legislature should be unchecked. Because when you think that the state Supreme Court reaffirming a executive order by a governor to extended absentee ballots on the reasonable grounds of we are in the middle of a pandemic that the legislature hasn’t done solely for partisan/undemocratic reasons are the ones out of line then you are essentially calling for the state legislature to be have the power to rig our democracy to their liking

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fresh Florida EV update:
Democrats: 131,524 (41.87%)
Republicans: 134,389 (42.78%)
NPAs: 44,608 (14.20%)
Others: 3,591 (1.14%)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rough day for Democrats in Florida, though I guess we’ll have to see what happened in Miami-Dade.

Most of the local Florida election geeks seem to being to saying the opposite because a) this is without Miami-Dada and b) Dems are winning mail in ballots which was historically Rep

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah, I don't see this as a bad day for Florida Democrats at all, given what's still out. They're going to win the day and add to their lead even with the mail-in ballot delay.

Given their mail in vote lead doesnt the GOP need to lead with early in voting to win the state

Pretty much or else they’ll have to seriously gamble on great turnout on Election Day during a pandemic

[Hindsight was 2020]

Some context for how Dems mail ballot lead is a big context changer
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318314203753611265

[Hindsight was 2020]

FL VBM update
Vote-By-Mail (2,631,580)

Dem: 1,277,935
Rep: 801,848
NPA/Others: 551,797

[Hindsight was 2020]

Nice video breaking down Florida EV
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0Po4u6PpU

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318373388289667072

Jesus they might hit the 70k firewall before Thursday

[Hindsight was 2020]

Miami wasn’t really pro-Dem as some hoped so first day was a virtual tie which is still good for Dems

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318609760988659714
I hope Dems can close the gap a bit as VBM is progressing along nicely

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

[Hindsight was 2020]

Where did the 600k theory come from?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

🙄 Good grief

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

Predictit is full of morons, and you can tell them that I said that.

Sir are you calling into question the expertise of disqus posters with names like “down with then (((establishment)))” with an avatar of Trump’s head on the god emperor from Warhammer 40k proclaiming Trump will win because of the 50 cent endorsement?

[Hindsight was 2020]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Seriously at this pace Dems should hit about a 500k advantage after the weekend which is miles ahead of their 2016 margins. The only reason reason people are freaking out is due to this whole “Dems need about 600-650k lead before ED to win because ED will be 80-20 Trump” talking point that’s out there

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hillary had a 200,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.

Right and Biden is at 479,000 already. Just saying

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hillary had a 200,000 lead before the election, and that was before VBM was politicized. Just saying.

Right and Biden is at 479,000 already. Just saying

You seemed to have selectively not read a sentence.
This was before VBM was politicized.

Not sure if you’ve been paying attention in the other thread by VBM and absentee ballots aren’t getting rejected at the rates everyone was fearing
Edit: Also Biden in now currently with 2 weeks left double Hillary’s EV lead by the end how does that translate to “the numbers don’t favor us”. I’m not declaring this a lock for Biden but get a gripe

[Hindsight was 2020]

Oh goodie now comes the “panic about Nevada” time

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm surprised some on here are upset at the idea that FL could once again go for Trump.
anybody who saw the results in 2018 election should no be shocked that this is the state that Trump probably wil keep in 2020.

Look lets be honest about this
Any Dem who bets their policial future on Florida is a fool who will end up just like Al gore and Andrew Gillum lol

Thanfully the Biden campaign seems to be smarter than that and is not putting all their chips into that 1 state. Now if biden ends up winning it in the end than that is cool but ultimately I care more about stopping Trump from winning the midwest than I do about Trump winning FL

The only reason I even cared about Florida at all is because It kept Trump from spending money in other states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

even if Trump keeps the state in the end the fact the had to spend resources that he could otherwise used elsewhere is a success for the both Biden and Dems in my book




 

The annoyance is due to bed wetting over numbers that aren’t bad for Biden

[Hindsight was 2020]

Florida numbers in (with Miami Dade)

Republicans up 41,039 in In person early
Democrats up 527,836 in Mail   (was 482,504 yesterday)

Net Democrats up 486,797....   increase of 8,105 over yesterday

Safe R/s

[Hindsight was 2020]

BritishSocialConservative
@BritishConserv3
·
2h
Holy moly, The GOP is winning the early vote in Miami-Dade!
Quote Tweet
UMichVoter
@umichvoter99
 · 2h
MIAMI-DADE Day 2 Early Vote:

Rep 16,521
Dem 16,146
NPA/Other 9,263
Total 41,930

MIAMI-DADE Day 2 VBM:

Dem 19,425
Rep 9,010
NPA/Other 8,779
Total 37,214

Still not good for reps due to VBM being lopsided

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jessica’s Trumpism and Forumlurker’s doomer is such an annoying combination

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Holy guacamole

[Hindsight was 2020]

The thing with Florida is the NPA are the big wild card in this equation. In 2016 turnout was close to even but Trump won this group which pushed him over but in 2018 Dems won this group but lost because Florida turnout was R+4. So with the election looking more even like 16 was the question will be do NPAs go like they did 16 or 18? An from what guys like Dace Trotter are saying the geographically and background data on the NPAs look more like a Biden friendly group then Trump